Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
175 FXUS64 KLIX 222351 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 551 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday morning) Issued at 203 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 In the upper levels we currently have a strong low over the upper east coast, another low set to move over the Pacific NW, and weak ridging in between. As we move into late weekend the ridging over the south and northern Gulf becomes more akin to zonal flow. Concerns for the short term are one more chilly night with temperatures dipping into the 30s and a slight possibility of touching freezing for an hour or two before sunrise at isolated locations in the SW MS counties and along parts of the Pearl River drainage basin in northern portions of Pearl River County and Washington Parish. Winds that have been fairly high over the past couple days have decreased significantly and will be near calm across most of the area allowing for frost formation in the early morning hours before sunrise, generally north of the I-10/12 corridor and away from the MS coast. The NBM has not handled these lower temperatures well, so temperatures (especially the overnight lows) through Sunday morning were derived from a combination of the NBM and the NBM25. Tomorrow a warming trend will begin, associated with the formation of the zonal flow. Conditions will be similar to Saturday morning but a bit warmer and this is resulting in a chance for patchy fog on Sunday morning where we may have seen frost on Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday evening through Thursday night) Issued at 203 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Sunday evening through early Tuesday should be benign, although warm again with highs in the upper 70s. Monday night sees a low and attendant weak front diving down out of the Canadian plains combining with return flow out of the Gulf and this could bring some showers on Tuesday. Into the end of the period for Thanksgiving day we have a stronger front moving into the area that will likely bring rain and perhaps thunderstorms with a possibility of some severe weather. Stay tuned...we`ll have to move forward in time before we can begin to see any details on the chance for bad weather. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 550 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light winds as high pressure settles into the area tonight and tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 The high pressure has settled more direcly over the area and allowed winds to finally settle down to around 10kt. Winds will turn to southerly into the weekend as the high pressure moves east of us and remain so as we feel the influences of the fronts moving through the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 34 65 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 39 69 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 36 68 42 76 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 47 67 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 39 65 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 34 70 41 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM....DS AVIATION...DM MARINE...DS