485
FXUS64 KLIX 072341
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
641 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Tonight through Sunday night, weak zonal ridging will dominate
the upper level pattern. Southerly surface winds will act to
enhance warm air advection and increase the humidities/moisture
for the area. Recent trends in the models emphasize more of a
typical summertime pattern tonight and tomorrow ahead of an
overnight MCS on Monday morning. As a result, scattered showers
and storms will be possible during peak daytime heating hours late
afternoon through early evening tonight and Sunday. These storms
will have lightning and brief locally heavy rainfall as the main
hazards. Some gusty winds (30-50mph) will also be possible with
these storms. Given the northwest upper level flow, it is also
more likely that these storms will linger a little later in the
evening around sunset or just after sunset.

Temperatures will be average for this time of year with highs in
the low 90s this weekend. Due to the increased humidity, heat
index values will be around 105 degrees as well. This is
approaching the heat advisory criteria of 108, but it is unlikely
heat index values will cross this threshold yet due to the
potential for afternoon storms. But we will continue to monitor.
Regardless, it will feel hot this weekend, so be sure to stay
hydrated and take plenty of breaks if you will be spending time
outside. MSW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

An MCS attempts to approach and move through our area on Monday
morning into Monday lingering into Monday evening. We are using
the word "attempts" because there is still a lot of model
uncertainty on whether the system will make it to or through the
area. Recent model trends have shown the system to be weaker and
weaker overall with the latest trends showing the system
dissipating as it gets to our area. Regardless, we could see some
higher rain chances with this system if it makes it down here.
Overall accumulation is not overly high around 1-2 inches total,
if that. These storms will have the potential for lightning,
locally heavy rainfall, and gusty winds (40-60mph) if the system
makes it down here. While we are outlooked in a Slight Risk of
Severe Weather by SPC for Monday, we would not be surprised if
this gets downgraded if model trends continue. We will continue
monitoring for changes, especially given the system will be moving
through in the next 36 hours.

Tuesday through the end of the workweek, southeasterly flow
resumes across the area, continuing to advect warmer and more
humid conditions. Looking at the models, Gulf moisture will
increase over the region as well resulting resumption of a
"summertime" pattern. Consequently, enhanced rain chances will be
possible daily Tuesday through Friday at least, especially during
peak daytime heating hours (afternoon through early evening).
These scattered to numerous showers and storms will have the
potential for gusty winds (30-50mph), frequent lightning, and
locally heavy rainfall.

Temperatures will continue to be typical of this time of year with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Heat index values in the low
100s in the forecast for this week. However, it is worth noting
that the timing of the daily storms will have a big impact on the
heating and temperatures. If storms occur earlier, the heat
concerns will be reduced somewhat. If the storms occur more
toward the early evening hours, the heat risk and concern will be
more increased. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the
rainfall forecast and the temperature forecast for the majority of
the long term, so this will continue to be monitored for changes
over the next few days. MSW

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Prevailing VFR for all terminals currently and this will persist
through the evening. Low cigs, bringing MVFR conditions, will
push in tomorrow morning for northern areas, mainly impacting MCB
and BTR.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Marine conditions will be benign for most of the forecast period.
Winds will be southerly to southwesterly and moderate (10-15kts)
tonight through Tuesday morning. Tuesday through Saturday, winds
will be southerly to southeasterly and moderate (10-15kts).
Thunderstorms will be a hazard of concern to mariners throughout
the forecast period, especially during the workweek Monday through
the end of the week. MSW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  91  72  89 /   0  40  40  70
BTR  77  94  77  92 /   0  50  20  60
ASD  75  93  75  92 /   0  30  20  50
MSY  78  94  78  93 /   0  30  10  50
GPT  77  92  77  91 /  10  30  50  60
PQL  75  91  75  89 /  10  30  50  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...HL
MARINE...MSW