Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
913 FXUS64 KLIX 260614 AAA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 114 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 ...NEW AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Low pressure/inverted trough continues to move westward and currently centered south of Lake Charles. It will give us one more day of rain as we still have a weakness until high pressure moving in from the east begins to dominate late tomorrow. Overnight PoPs in the 30% range, but will likely not realize any rain over land. However, higher PoPs offshore indicate some diurnal convection possible over the Gulf waters. The higher pressure extending westward over us bringing suppression of lift combined with lower PW in the 1.7 to 1.8 range mean much lower rain chances, with Sunday`s PoPs less than 30%. Heat Index values tomorrow will be on a tightrope nearing Heat Advisory criteria, but the cloud cover and convective activity should keep the HI below 105 so am opting to not issue heat headlines for tomorrow. Clearing skies on Sunday and associated lack of rain on Sunday bring an increase in temperatures that continues into the week. Heat Index values on Sunday do look to touch 108-109, so will likely be issuing Heat Advisory for Sunday in a subsequent forecast package. Another consideration with the heat is overnight low temperatures a couple degrees above normal. This doesn`t allow for overnight cooling and just starts the daytime heating from a higher point. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Friday night) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 The cycle of heat/rain that we`ve been in continues into the early workweek with the dominant high pressure driving hot daytime High Temps, with a chance of hitting the 100 mark, and high Heat Indexes. Monday and Tuesday it is very likely that Heat Advisories will be needed and possible that Extreme Heat Watch/Warning criteria will be met. By Wednesday the dominant high pressure will pull to the northeast. This will allow another round of showers and thunderstorms due to the relatively lower pressures and increased flow of tropical moisture out of the Gulf. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 114 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Convection will once again develop across the region later this afternoon. Reduced VIS/CIGs will remain possible. Outside of convection, mostly VFR conditions are anticipated. Winds will continue to remain rather light from a southerly direction. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1024 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Winds today were in the 15+ kt range, requiring a Small Craft Exercise caution headline. The winds have dropped, so that headline is being allowed to expire at midnight. Wind speeds will remain in the 10-15 kt range and southerly through tomorrow afternoon and then decrease to below 10 kt and shift a touch to southeasterly through the remainder of the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 90 73 94 74 / 70 10 20 0 BTR 90 76 94 75 / 70 10 40 0 ASD 90 74 94 75 / 60 10 20 0 MSY 91 79 94 79 / 70 10 40 0 GPT 90 77 92 77 / 60 10 20 0 PQL 90 75 94 75 / 70 0 20 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM....DS AVIATION...RDF MARINE...DS