763
FXUS64 KLIX 031730
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast each day
  through this weekend into the first half of next week. While
  the overall severe weather threat will be low, one or two storms
  could become strong to severe each day, producing strong to
  damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning and periods of heavy
  rain.

- Above normal temperatures are expected through the 7-Day
  forecast period. Afternoon heat indices will generally range
  from 100 to 107 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday night)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Upper ridge remains over Tennessee and the Carolinas this
morning. The remnants of Eduoard were over east Texas, with another
easterly wave over the northeast Gulf. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms were over the Gulf south of the coastal parishes,
with only very isolated activity north of Interstate 10.
Temperatures at midday were in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dew
points were mainly in the middle 70s.

As the wave over the Gulf works its way westward, it will do so in
tandem with the center of the upper ridge, which will be over
Oklahoma and Kansas again by Saturday. As has been the case the
last several days, most areas should remain dry or receive less
than one quarter inch of rain this afternoon, but a few spots
could see a quick inch of rain or more. Precipitable water values
are forecast to be higher on Friday and Saturday, which should
provide a bit greater areal coverage than this afternoon or
Sunday, as well as a bit better opportunity for heavy rainfall.
Similarly, that should make today and Sunday slightly warmer than
Friday and Saturday. We`ll still be near to above normal on
temperatures with highs 90 to 95. We should see heat index values
remain just short of the 108F criteria that would justify heat
advisories through Sunday, but we`ll continue to monitor.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Upper ridging will be centered over Oklahoma on Monday, and expand
more east-west by mid-week. At that point, it should extend from
Colorado to Georgia. That will keep mid-level easterlies over much
of the Gulf through mid-week and beyond.

Precipitable water values will remain at or above the 75th
percentile along the Louisiana coast, but will occasionally drop to
near the 50th percentile across southwest Mississippi. The end
result is going to be a day to day development of showers and
thunderstorms, with a gradient of PoPs from south (highest) to north
(lowest). Most convection should be diurnally based, primarily
during the afternoon. If the GFS soundings are any indication,
storms on Monday and Tuesday may be more favorable for gusty winds,
while Wednesday (and Thursday) would be more favorable for heavy
rainfall.

Don`t anticipate any large swings in temperatures from day to day,
primarily in the lower 90s for highs, although Labor Day would be
the most likely candidate to get a little hotter. That`s the day
that would also be most favored for a Heat Advisory, but that`s not
a sure bet for now.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Cumulus field is fairly well developed near most terminals this
afternoon, with cloud bases between FL025 and FL035. Most SHRA and
TSRA have remained offshore this morning, but expect areal
coverage over land to increase this afternoon. Areal coverage
would justify mainly PROB30 this afternoon, with the exception of
KHUM, where TEMPO is more reasonable. Do expect most of the
current convection to dissipate toward sunset. Could see SHRA
spread onshore from the Gulf prior to sunrise Friday, and will
need to consider in terminals south of Interstate 10.

Do expect a significant increase in areal coverage of SHRA/TSRA
tomorrow as compared to today, and will probably need TEMPO in
most or all terminals Friday afternoon. Ceilings should remain in
the MVFR range, but visibilities could fall to IFR or lower.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

The pressure gradient is expected to be fairly weak the next several
days, with the main potential impacts to be daily rounds of isolated
to scattered thunderstorms. Those will have the potential to produce
locally higher winds and waves.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW