036
FXUS64 KLIX 251130 AAA
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
530 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

...NEW AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 527 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

- Scattered to numerous showers through the early morning hours
  with possibly a storm or 2 through Tuesday. If any storm becomes
  strong to marginally severe, it`ll likely be in SW MS or
  adjacent LA parishes.

- A substantial cool down Thurs and Fri with morning temps in the
  30s and 40s. A few places could briefly touch freezing across
  SW MS, and within the Pearl and Pascagoula River drainage areas.

- Hazardous conditions for small craft this morning and again
  Wednesday afternoon, possibly through the entire weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

The upper level pattern across the country is quite progressive at
this time, which is pretty typical of this time if year. What was a
closed upper level low at one time is now an open shortwave,
definitely on the downward trend as it tracks towards the mid
Mississippi Valley. A surface low is trying to develop underneath
the upper trough but surface chart shows it`s struggling, maybe 1010
mb. Regardless, there`s enough lift via weak front and upper jet to
support wide band of storms over northern and central LA into
northern MS. As the early morning hours progress, however, dynamics
just don`t make it to the CWA. The upper jet is lifting north and
weakening, lower and mid level winds weaken and low level inversion
strengthens. Thus, really struggling to see severe potential for
anywhere in the CWA outside of maybe only SW Mississippi counties.
Then, going through the daytime hours, instability does develop as
the surface warms. However, as noted just above, shear values will
gradually be weakening. So while thunderstorms may develop and a
marginally severe storm isn`t impossible, the probability is quite
low.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Monday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Global models in good agreement that a secondary and deeper trough
moving through the mid section of the country late Tuesday into
Wednesday will drive a continental airmass well past the local area
to the southern Gulf late week. That puts FROPA by around sunrise
Wednesday morning for all but coastal areas. Moderate CAA will
substantially drop temps (15+ degrees) and maintain that beyond
Thanksgiving. Latest deterministic NBM lows Thurs and Fri mornings
finally coming around from above the 90th percentile to atleast close
to the 75th. Should be noted that model spread is quite minimal
relatively speaking. Do think though that lows could be nudged down
a bit in the Pearl River and Pascagoula drainage basins Friday
morning. Probably don`t moderate back to climo normals until next
weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

VFR conditions through the cycle outside of shower and
thunderstorm activity. Covered any reductions associated with
convection with PROBs. Overall, coverage should remain limited and
brief. Light to moderate southerly winds can be expected, however,
as a cold front moves through late in the period expect winds to
shift to a more northwesterly direction and increase after sunrise
on Wednesday. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1142 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
A warm front that was located near the coast has surged north and is
well inland now as a cold front approaches from the west. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms may develop across the coastal waters
early this morning through the afternoon. Shear is quite light and
instability just enough for thunder but not severe. A tightening
pressure gradient has beginning to increase winds west of the MS
River per recent marine obs. With those speeds exceeding 20 knots,
have recently initiated a Small Craft Advisory. This matches up
perfectly with model boundary layer wind forecast. That forecast
also shows those winds dropping off around sunrise as the tight
pressure gradient will be a short wind mostly due to the proximity
of the surface low to the local area and the progressive nature of
this system. The actual front will finally move through the coastal
waters Wednesday morning as deepening comma low rolls into the Great
Lakes Region. The combination of cold air advection over the
relatively warm waters, and the pressure gradient between the high
and low will cause winds to strengthen into the 20-25kt range and
Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed Wednesday afternoon
through at least midday Thursday. As the high settles into the area
later in the week, winds will ease and turn back to the southeast as
the high shifts east of the area by Saturday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  51  64  36 /  70  10   0   0
BTR  81  54  69  39 /  70   0   0   0
ASD  82  54  71  37 /  50  10   0   0
MSY  84  60  71  47 /  40  10   0   0
GPT  78  57  71  42 /  50  20   0   0
PQL  79  55  72  37 /  50  30   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...ME