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FXUS64 KLIX 081746
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1146 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1013 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Similar to yesterday, going to see patchy showers during the
daylight hours, so have bumped up PoPs about 20 percent. Still
think we`ll see at least brief sunshine this afternoon, so haven`t
lowered high temperatures yet. Update already out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 341 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

No fog worries for now as all variables are out of line for even
advection fog. Rafael will continue westward but slow as it moves
west of 90W even running a loop. But the good thing is that Rafael
will begin to slowly weaken over time. During the next few days
though, we will see some peripheral impacts from the hurricane as it
lingers well offshore. Most of this will be marine impacts gut there
could be some sh/ts that make their way onshore if the system does a
loop far enough north. This would occur at the same time that it is
weakening though, so most things may hold neutral as far as tangible
weather. All headlines will simply be moved up in time and we will
also expand the coastal flood advisory as water levels should rise
higher for everyone along the coast. We are still looking at up to a
foot above normal levels, so continued nuisance flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 341 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

We will still be working with Rafael into the new week coming but
there is still no evidence of it moving into our area, only the
peripheral portions as shear should blow most of the deep convection
to the NE of the center of the system. A new front will move to the
TX/LA line and stall late Saturday much like the last one did. As
short wave impulses drop to the base of the long wave trough out
west, these fronts will continue to stall and back off as the ridge
to the east is successively reinforced and strengthened which is
what will be forcing Rafael around the central gulf. The loop that
Rafael does will be caused by this first front that draws it then
builds the ridging ahead of it as it stalls. This front will also
provide a chance of rain if it can get close enough and this looks
to be the case. Moisture profiles will deepen with PWs approaching
2" by late today into Sat thanks to the moisture envelope of Rafael.
This should be enough to give some heavy rainfall. This could be and
issue as the lines of sh/ts that set up would not be moving much.
The Euro has been showing a strong cold front cleaning the area by
mid to late next week(Thusdayish). The GFS is now starting to show a
front in this time frame moving through as well. Both solutions
would be credible, as far as climo is concerned, since this would be
a very normal time to get a strong cold front displacing the
incredible record breaking heat. We will continue to play along with
both these global scenarios since it fits all criteria from
initializing to climo.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Terminals generally seeing overcast skies at midday with cloud
bases FL010-015 and isolated to scattered -SHRA. Bases could lift
a little bit to around FL020 for a while this afternoon, and
possibly even scatter out for a while around sunset. Most of the
SHRA will probably dissipate around sunset. Cloud decks will
again lower to near or below FL010 prior to sunrise, but should
stay above LIFR limits. Any significant visibility restrictions
outside of SHRA should be limited to KMCB. Ceilings will again
lift to MVFR levels by mid-morning Saturday. Unlikely to be any
significant threat of TSRA during this forecast window with the
possible exception of KHUM. However, don`t expect threat to be
high enough at this time to justify in at least the first 12-18
hours of the forecast for KHUM. Easterly winds near 15 knots will
be possible at the New Orleans terminals and KHUM for portions of
the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 341 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Peripheral impacts from the interaction between Rafael and the
strong ridging over the gulf coast will occur in the form of winds
and seas. Winds should remain easterly today then becoming SErly
over the weekend at around 20-25kt. There is some possiblity of
gusts reaching tropical storm force well offshore as early as
Saturday. This will depend on how close it comes to the outer waters
while the system does its loop. The shear will also keep most of the
deep convective bursts to the NE of the center during this time
which could cause some marine zones to get winds into these ranges
quite easily. Again, this will need to be looked in greater detail
over the next 24 hours. Seas will be made of wind waves and a lot of
swell coming from Rafael for the next several days. We will keep the
caution and advisory statements with this package and simply move
them farther in time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  69  82  68 /  40  20  40  60
BTR  86  73  85  72 /  30  20  40  60
ASD  83  70  85  70 /  30  10  20  40
MSY  82  74  84  73 /  30  20  30  50
GPT  82  70  83  70 /  20  10  10  30
PQL  86  70  87  71 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 10 AM CST Sunday
     for LAZ057-058-060-066>070-076>078-080-082-084-086-087.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CST
     Saturday for LAZ069-070-076-078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for GMZ550-552-555-
     557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 10 AM CST Sunday
     for MSZ086>088.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CST
     Saturday for MSZ086.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for GMZ552-555-557-
     570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...TE