358
FXUS64 KLIX 291112
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
512 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 507 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

 - Hazardous marine conditions for much of the next 5 days.

 - Entering a wetter pattern beginning Saturday night into Sunday,
   with additional periods of rainfall, possibly heavy, Monday
   night into Tuesday, and possibly again on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1112 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

A zonal flow regime will remain in place through Sunday across the
Gulf South. In the low levels, the region will find itself placed
between a departing high and an advancing front the next couple of
days. Winds will veer to a more southeasterly direction and
temperatures will warm back to more average readings for this time
of year with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s Saturday
afternoon. This southeast flow off the Gulf will also bring moisture
back into the region. PWATS will increase dramatically throughout
the day and will be around the 75th percentile by Saturday
evening. This will be most noticeably marked by a gradual
lowering of the cloud deck through the day as moisture deepens. By
late Saturday night into Sunday, a fast moving shortwave trough
axis and the aforementioned frontal boundary will begin to slide
through the region. Ample deep layer forcing and moisture will
support a broad area of post-frontal stratiform rainfall
development from late Saturday night into Sunday. Rainfall totals
of a half inch to up to an inch are probable with this weekend
rain event.

By Sunday night, the front is expected to stall over the northern
Gulf as the parent shortwave feature quickly lifts to the
northeast. Mid-level flow will remain southerly to southwesterly,
and this will allow for weak isentropic forcing over the cooler
and more stable surface based airmass to linger through Monday
morning. Skies will remain overcast and isolated light rain
showers will persist over the area due to this isentropic forcing.
Temperatures Sunday into Sunday night will see a wide gradient
with readings only rising into the upper 50s and lower 60s north
of the front in southwest Mississippi and the Baton Rouge metro,
but readings also climbing into the upper 60s and lower 70s in
coastal Mississippi, metro New Orleans, and coastal Louisiana.
Lows will also see a decent gradient with the front stalled on the
Louisiana coast with readings dropping into the 40s north of I-10
and lower 50s south of I-10 Sunday night. A very similar
temperature spread is expected Monday into Monday night as the
frontal boundary remains stalled just offshore.

A much stronger southern stream system embedded within the broader
zonal flow pattern will push through the area Monday into Monday
night. Very strong and deep forcing will be in place as both a
highly difluent pattern aloft and favorable jet dynamics develop
over a region of enhanced baroclincity in the northern Gulf. A
Gulf low will form on Monday beneath these favorable upper level
dynamics, and this low will pass directly through the region
Monday night. The isentropic forcing over the cooler surface
based airmass to the north of the stationary front will also
contribute to the deep layer forcing across the area. All of these
factors will support widespread moderate to heavy stratiform
rainfall from Monday afternoon through Monday night. PWATS are
forecast to rise to daily max value of around 1.5 inches, and
heavy rainfall will be a concern. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3
inches could occur.

One area of concern for any surface based convection and a low end
threat of strong to severe storms could be over the eastern Gulf
waters and potentially as far north as coastal Mississippi late
Monday afternoon into Monday evening. This will be highly
dependent on the exact track of the deepening Gulf low, so
uncertainty is greater than average. However, a review of model
soundings in the area indicate marginally conducive shear and
instability parameters over the aforementioned time period. As
more high resolution model data comes in, forecast confidence any
the evolution of the low and any surface based convective threat
will increase. To the immediate north of the front, mid- level
lapse rates may support an isolated elevated thunderstorm within
broader stratiform rain shield in coastal Louisiana, but
thunderstorm chances diminish to near zero closer to the I-10
corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday night)
Issued at 1112 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Model guidance remains in good agreement that a cooler and drier
airmass will quickly advect into the area on Tuesday as the Gulf
low and attendant cold front sweep well east and south of the
region. These conditions will linger into Wednesday as a surface
high passes to the north of the area. Highs will only climb into
the mid 50s Tuesday afternoon and overnight lows will easily fall
below freezing along and north of the I-10/12 corridor. The cold
temperatures will continue into Wednesday with highs only rising
into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

This brief break in a more unsettled pattern will be short-lived
as the model guidance is in decent agreement that another fast
moving shortwave trough embedded with the persistent zonal flow
pattern aloft will begin to impact the area on Thursday. Model
spread begins to increase as we move into Friday and Friday night,
and overall forecast confidence decreases dramatically. It does
look like a return to a wetter period of weather will occur on
Thursday and Friday, and have opted to largely stick with the NBM
output for both days. This results in PoP of 40 to 60 percent over
this period. Temperature spreads are also large as the positioning
of a frontal boundary over the area has large spatial differences.
NBM deterministic output has readings running slightly cooler
than average with highs the 50s and 60s and lows in the 40s and
50s, and have stuck with this for day 6 and 7 forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 507 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

VFR through most of this taf cycle. There is some -SHRA moving
into the area from the west by Sunday morning which will cause
some vis levels to drop into MVFR range with a few IFR possible.
Cigs should remain VFR though.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1112 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

East winds of around 20 knots will begin to ease Saturday afternoon
and will remain below advisory criteria at 10 to 15 knots through
Sunday afternoon.  Sunday night through Tuesday will see more
hazardous conditions for small craft return as a low pressure system
passes through the coastal waters.  Northerly winds will increase
back above 20 knots and seas will rise back to 5 to 7 feet in the
open Gulf waters.  As high pressure briefly builds back over the
waters Tuesday night into Wednesday, winds will turn more easterly
and weaken to between 10 and 15 knots.  Seas will also subside back
to 1 to 3 feet as these calmer winds take hold.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  50  58  41 /  10  60  70  40
BTR  70  55  62  46 /  10  60  70  40
ASD  69  55  70  47 /   0  20  40  30
MSY  70  60  70  53 /   0  20  40  30
GPT  67  56  71  49 /   0  10  40  30
PQL  67  54  71  49 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ550-552-555-557-
     570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ552-555-557-570-
     572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...PG