711
FXUS64 KLIX 040500
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1200 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

A few light showers did develop and stream in from the Gulf as
moisture is slowly increasing. Temps once again climbed into the
mid 80s to near 90. Look for storms to return and become quite
numerous tomorrow and possibly again Thursday.

The driver over our area the next few days will actually be mainly a
surge in moisture as we will be in between features. The well
established mid lvl low over the eastern Gulf that if it had enough
time could slowly transition to a hybrid and even fully tropical
system but likely moves inland way too soon and the ridge centered
along the Mexican Pacific coast. At the same time a central CONUS
trough is slowly working east towards the MS Valley region. That
trough is keeping the ridge to our southwest from building in as
the northeastern Gulf low drifts northeast. On Wednesday SELA and
srn/coastal MS will be right in the cull region between that trough
starting to lift to the northeast, the low moving into FL and GA,
and the ridge just starting to build northeast across Mexico and TX.
The bigger influence is a surge of moisture that will be drawn to
the north by the trough. This is already starting to occur and as
the deeper moisture starts to push in Marine convection will likely
increase quite significantly overnight. That convection will then
work northwest and north out of the coastal waters and across the
area during the day tomorrow. A few strong storms are possible but
these will be quite tropical-like with brief moderate to heavy rain
reducing visibilities on the roads and quite a bit of lightning. The
other things to watch for will be tropical funnels and waterspouts
trying to move onshore as there will likely be numerous waterspouts
tomorrow morning.

Thursday Should see less convection than tomorrow as the ridge does
quickly try to build into the region. However, until it becomes a
little more established there will likely be quite a bit of coastal
convection again that will try to move inland through the morning.
/CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Monday night)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Heading into the weekend the things still look warm with decent
daily rain chances. Medium range mdls are in fairly good agreement
with the mid lvl pattern through the weekend and into the next
work week. Even the ensemble means are in pretty good agreement
with their op runs. With that confidence is high in the forecast
with scattered expected each day and then storms dissipating in
the early evening, oh yeah seems like Summer. With that no
significant deviations from the NBM were made however still
question the that coverage will be as widespread as the NBM is
suggesting Friday and Saturday just not confident enough to lower
any one spot.

Friday and through the weekend the pattern will evolve. Heading into
Friday the ridge mentioned earlier will be centered over southern TX
stretching west into the Pacific and east across the Gulf. The ridge
will remain entrenched in that area into Saturday but by Saturday
afternoon and especially Sunday the northeastern edge of the ridge
will begin to erode and the ridge will slide west. This will be in
response to an amplifying Rex Block over the Pacific coast and a
deep trough digging across the northern Rockies and into the Plains
Saturday and Sunday. Friday and Saturday rain chances should be
lowest but still likely see scattered convection during the
afternoon. Even with the ridge in place it will not be overwhelming
so daytime heating, abundant moisture, and seabreeze influence will
get convection going. That said still not quite as optimistic as the
NBM is on Friday with 60% however it is in the one locations that
would likely see the greatest convergence boundary collision with
the sea breeze working north across across Lafourche and Terrebonne,
the lake breeze working slowly southwest from lakes Maurepas and
Pontchartrain, and even a slight seabreeze working northeast from
Vermillion Bay. NBM does have slightly lower PoPs for Saturday
(mainly 40s) and with the ridge still in control makes since but if
the ridge erodes on the northeast side a little faster converge
could be slightly higher.

By Sunday the ridge should be well to the west with weak northwest
flow building in aloft. This should allow for decent coverage once
again but with northwest flow convection could be a little later in
the day Sunday. The new work week looks like it could begin on the
slightly active side as the trough digs even more and mdls are
indicating a stronger disturbance moving into the area. This could
lead to a decent MCS or at the least a few potent storms. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Generally VFR conditions expected through the overnight hours. A
few small stray SHRA possible overnight, but nothing of
significance. Possible some slight visibility restrictions around
sunrise at KMCB. Moisture content will be a little higher
tomorrow, so when cumulus field develops, MVFR ceilings will be
possible. Scattered showers are expected to develop Wednesday
afternoon, mainly at terminals east of Interstate 55. A limited
threat exists for TSRA as well, but expect SHRA to be the primary
precipitation type, with PROB30 best descriptor. Later forecasts
may necessitate adding TSRA when timing and location ranges narrow
a bit.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Light to moderate easterly winds have continued to slowly veer a
little more southeasterly and will continue to do so through the
night. Winds have risen to around 15-18kt today and will remain in
that range through the night. Winds will begin to relax tomorrow
and through the rest of the week as the weak sfc low lifts to the
northeast towards SC Thursday. Winds will continue to work towards
more southerly Thursday slowly shifting to SW through the
weekend. Storms will increase in coverage overnight tonight as
moisture surges to the northwest with scattered to numerous storms
each night and early morning through the week. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  88  70  91 /   0  40   0  30
BTR  72  90  73  92 /   0  40   0  40
ASD  72  89  71  91 /  10  50   0  40
MSY  76  90  76  91 /   0  60   0  50
GPT  75  87  73  89 /  10  50  10  40
PQL  72  88  71  89 /  20  50  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...CAB