552
FXUS64 KLIX 301801
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1201 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1147 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

 - Rain slowly dissipates this afternoon.

 - The frontal boundary stalls in the northern Gulf, then a
   developing surface low on this front moves northeast bringing
   more widespread precipitation to the area Monday afternoon &
   night. Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches is expected, with locally
   higher amounts.

 - This system departs early Tuesday, with much colder air
   filtering into the region. Another freeze is possible for areas
   along/north of I-10/12 Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1147 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

A southern stream shortwave is shifting to the east of the area
this morning. A northern stream trough was dropping southward
through Nevada and Utah this morning, putting the northern Gulf
Coast in zonal mid-level flow. At the surface, low pressure was
moving across the area. An area of light rain was noted over the
the area from McComb to Morgan City, but has been showing a
diminishing/dissipating trend over the last couple hours. Quite
the temperature range across Mississippi and Louisiana this
morning, with temperatures in northern portions of both states in
the lower 40s, while coastal Mississippi and areas south of Lake
Pontchartrain were near 70.

The frontal boundary will gradually slip offshore this afternoon and
evening with the current area of rain gradually dissipating. The
trough over the Intermountain West this morning will move into the
southern Plains by Monday evening, with a southern stream shortwave
moving along the northern Gulf Coast ahead of it. This will induce
at least weak cyclogenesis over the northern Gulf along the
baroclinic boundary at some point Monday. This will spread a new
rain shield northeastward into the area by Monday afternoon.

Even with extensive cloud cover, there is likely to be about a 10-
15F temperature range in low temperatures tonight. Highs on Monday
likely to range from the mid 50s far northwest to the mid 60s over
coastal Louisiana and Mississippi.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1147 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

As the upper trough moves into the Ohio River Valley Monday night
into Tuesday, it will force the southern stream shortwave across the
area, reaching Alabama around midnight Monday night as low pressure
moves into the Florida Panhandle. The main area of rain should exit
our area around midnight Monday night. As the low continues to
deepen and move northeastward toward New England by Tuesday night,
it will pull cooler and drier air into the local area, at least
temporarily. Would expect Tuesday and Wednesday to be dry across the
area in between systems.

The next upper trough will be dropping into the Four Corners region
on Wednesday with a southern stream shortwave ejecting northeastward
ahead of it from the Mexican Plateau. Moisture will return to the
local area Wednesday night, with precipitation chances increasing by
sunrise Thursday. Thursday into Friday night looks wet, to say the
least, with multiple waves of rain and thunderstorms. The
baroclinic zone looks to set up further northwest for the 2nd half
of the week than what we will see over the next 36 hours. This
will put some to most of the area in the warm sector for the 2nd
half of the week.

The main detail yet to be determined is where the bands of heaviest
rain will set up. There is likely to be a band where 2 to 4 inches
of rain occurs between 12z Thursday and 12z Saturday with the early
indications perhaps targeting the northwest half of the area. Much
of that is likely to be welcome, considering the sparse November
precipitation amounts across the area.

Temperatures will be rather chilly Monday night into at least
Wednesday. Highs Tuesday will likely remain in the 50s, and there
will most likely be patchy areas that fall to near or below freezing
Wednesday morning to the north of the Interstate 10/12 corridors.
Temperatures moderate beyond that point, with highs in the 60s and
perhaps lower 70s for Thursday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

IFR conditions in place for KMCB/KBTR/KHDC underneath the slowly
dissipating rain area, with the remaining terminals VFR. Expect a
little improvement from IFR to perhaps the low end of MVFR by
evening, but probably not much better than that. Ceilings in the
FL008-015 range expected to be common overnight. Rain will spread
back into terminals from southwest to northeast by late Monday
morning or Monday afternoon. IFR conditions, especially ceilings,
are expected Monday afternoon and evening at most or all
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1147 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

As the frontal boundary arrives over the Gulf this afternoon and
tonight, north to northeast winds will increase. Will leave the
current headlines in place, beginning at noon CST. May need a brief
period of Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines over portions of
the waters Monday afternoon. As colder air pours over the waters
late Monday night or Tuesday, an additional Small Craft Advisory
will eventually be needed across most or all of the waters. If there
is going to be a period where conditions might be more favorable for
marine operations, it would be Wednesday into the early portion of
Thursday, before conditions deteriorate again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  43  57  37  50 /  30  80 100  10
BTR  46  61  39  53 /  30  80  90  10
ASD  47  65  43  56 /  10  70  90  20
MSY  53  67  47  58 /  20  70  90  10
GPT  50  66  47  59 /  10  70  90  20
PQL  48  68  46  60 /  20  60  90  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Monday
     for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Monday
     for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW