426
FXUS64 KLIX 080548
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1148 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1146 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

- At least patchy Dense Fog probability relatively high for this
  morning, mainly along interstate corridors and coastla areas.

- An Arctic front will bring temperatures to near or below
  freezing on Tuesday morning along and north of the I-10/12
  corridor. Now is a good time to start winterizing your outdoor
  areas such as covering pipes and being prepared to cover plants.


- Higher winds (20-30kt) and seas (7-12ft) hazardous to small crafts
  are likely Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning, wind gusts
  could approach gale-force. Highest winds and seas will be 20nm
  or farther offshore.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Areas of patchy dense fog seem likely this morning as moisture
pools ahead of a stalling front this morning. Main hesitation with
issuing a dense fog advisory at this time is that forecast
soundings as well as HDC and TMSY VAD wind profiles show that
10-15kt winds will remain right above the surface at only a few
hundred feet up. So, turbulent mixing could promote any sort of
wind to transfer to the surface and disrupt fog formation as this
current setup favors more of a radiational type fog regime.
Therefore, confidence is lower at the time for widespread dense
fog this morning, but will keep an eye on trends and those winds
to see if a dense fog advisory is needed.

As far as the daytime goes, the second upper- level currently
traversing the Yellowstone River Valley in Montana is expected to
dig southeastward across the Central Plains today. That specific
piece of energy is expected to transition and eject across the
mid-MS River Valley later today, keeping us in zonal flow
throughout the day today and allows it`s associated cold front to
stall out north of the area today. This will promote slight warm
air advection ahead of it as well as some compressional warming,
so temps were slightly bumped up from NBM to account for that. We
remain slightly above the median PW for this time of year, but
with fairly dry boundary layer conditions and an inversion at
700mb, expect at most isolated showers throughout the day today.

The next piece of energy behind the one ejecting across the mid-MS
River Valley is expected to dig deeper across the central and
southern plains on Sunday. This will bring a strong arctic front
to the area by mid-morning on Sunday. The strongest of its cold
air advection looks to start Sunday evening, so highs looks like
it will be cooler, but still in the upper 60s and low 70s on
Sunday. The strongest of the winds also look like it will take
place shortly after midday on Sunday as winds look to gust up to
20-25mph across the area, which is not Wind Advisory criteria, but
definitely breezy. The cold air advection will continue into
Sunday night, and decided to stick with the NBM`s mid 30s to low
40s lows for Sunday night/Monday morning since the guidance was
already at the 25th percentile.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

The previously mentioned cold air advection looks to still be
continuing behind the front and on the backside of the upper-level
trough on Monday. Therefore, highs were bumped down slightly to
the low to mid 50s across the area on Monday. Due to the strong
advection, winds will still be elevated and gusting in the
15-20mph range. However, as we get into Monday night and Tuesday
morning, shortwave ridging across the central plains looks to
develop a surface high across the northern Gulf coast. This high
will promote effective radiational cooling on top of the arctic
airmass that was advected in the previous days. Therefore, the
combination of those things will likely lead to widespread freeze
conditions along and north of the I-10/12 corridor Tuesday
morning. The NBM was hovering around the 75th percentile, so the
50th was blended in to account for the radiative cooling which
brought freezing temps down to the I-10/12 corridor north of the
lake. The Pearl and Pascagoula River Basins were lowered slightly
more than that, which brought in a very small area close to a low
of 25 near Bogalusa.

On Tuesday, models agree the the shortwave ridging will traverse
eastward across the SE CONUS and move the surface high over us to
the east as well. This will promote warm and moist air advection
into the area on Tuesday, causing our highs to rebound in the
upper 50s and low 60s. We will continue to warm up throughout the
end of the week as that surface high remains to our east and
another stronger ridge makes its way across the Central Plains as
highs look to top out in the mid to upper 70s Thursday through
Saturday.


&&

.AVIATION...
(60Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

We`re starting to see some intermittent IFR visibility and
ceilings across coastal areas this morning. Expect those
conditions to remain relatively intermittent as winds right off
of the surface remain 10-15kt. This should promote turbulent
mixing and keep dense fog patchy. However, if winds die down, fog
would be more of an issue tonight. Therefore, just maintained
TEMPOS for fog due to the expected patchiness at this time. Any
fog that does develop will dissipate a few hours after sunrise as
heating mixes it. Afterward, expect VFR conditions throughout the
day on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1146 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Light southwesterly winds will remain in place across the waters
today as the Mid Atlantic surface high shifts offshore to the east.
By Sunday, a strong cold front will push across the coastal waters,
bringing strong northerly/offshore winds of 20-25 knots behind it.
The strongest of the winds looks like it will be from midday Sunday
through Monday night. These winds will also promote 9-11 feet waves
in our outer waters during that same timeframe. Needless to say, at
least Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for Sunday
through Monday night. A surface high starts filtering into the area
on Tuesday and light winds and calmer seas return with it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  60  81  56 /  20  10  10  30
BTR  83  62  83  60 /  20   0  10  20
ASD  80  60  80  60 /  30   0   0  20
MSY  83  65  83  65 /  20   0   0  20
GPT  77  62  79  62 /  30   0   0  20
PQL  79  60  80  60 /  30   0   0  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ