Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
617 FXUS64 KLIX 151906 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 106 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 104 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 - Above normal temperatures expected through the start of next week. - Some patchy dense fog could develop tonight, especially along river drainage basins. Remember to slow down and use your low beam headlights if you encounter dense fog while driving. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 104 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 A broad upper level ridge encompasses much of the southern US east of the Desert Southwest. An upper trough sliding through the Great Lakes and Northeast will flatten the east side of the ridge somewhat, but this won`t cause any appreciable changes to local a weather for the remainder of this weekend. That means no rain expected and temps remain above normal, moderating slightly going through Sunday. The biggest impact from weather remains to be fog potential. Model soundings show a low level inversion evening through the overnight period as clear skies allows for modest radiational cooling. The 12Z KLIX sounding showed the inversion was only 500` deep. Both shallower and steeper than GFSBufr showed for this morning. Guidance does suggest a thin layer of high clouds moving in from the NW after midnight which could limit radiational cooling and thus stunt fog development. Taking that into consideration as well as the more scattered nature of fog last light, am hesitant to put out dense fog advisory attm. Will say though that local river basins are the most likely areas that fog will develop. Should be noted that the setup remains for potential of compounding effect of smoke with dense fog as it`s been so dry lately. MEFFER && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday night) Issued at 104 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Moving through next week, an upper low in the Desert Southwest tracks across the Rockies and Central Plains. This will flatten the ridge aloft. A surface low associated with the trough will begin to draw Gulf moisture northward. Although a stray showers may develop, not expecting much at all. What will be noticeable is gradual warming each day. By Wednesday, could be just a few degrees below record highs for this time of year. Global models beyond continue to advertise a decent chance for rain Thurs/Fri timeframe as a southern stream trough moves through the region. The path the upper low takes and how amplified is a bit uncertain right now, but certainly bears watching for severe potential. MEFFER && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 104 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Relatively light southerly winds will continue throughout the day before relaxing this evening and overnight as the boundary layer decouples. Similar to last night, low level temp inversion will promote fog development. Its not a significantly strong one which may limit coverage to some degree. So while VFR will dominate the forecast timeframe, periods of IFR to VLIFR will be possible either from surface or tree top level fog. MEFFER && .MARINE... Issued at 104 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Surface high pressure will remain centered over the Southeast US through the forecast period. This will allow for a continuation of onshore flow. Overall, the flow should remain light at around 10 knots or less and seas/waves less than 2 feet. Probably won`t see appreciable changes until latter half of next week. Global models do continue to show a southern stream trough bringing a cold front through with hazardous winds/seas over marine areas. MEFFER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 56 79 57 77 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 58 82 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 55 78 55 77 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 61 81 61 80 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 58 78 58 76 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 55 79 55 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ME LONG TERM....ME AVIATION...ME MARINE...ME