920
FXUS64 KLIX 070519
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1219 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1209 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

 - Areas of dense fog possible overnight in areas that received
   heavy rainfall.

 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue
   through the short term. Dry conditions expected beyond
   midweek.

 - Hazardous marine conditions return late this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Issued a Dense Fog Advisory for much of the area during the
evening hours for the 3 AM CDT to 9 AM CDT time frame. Very wet
ground north of Interstate 10, light winds and the potential for
clear skies signal conditions for dense fog development.
Temperatures are a little warmer than optimum for fog development,
but with longer nights, we certainly have more time to cool.
Limiting factor in near coastal areas would be the potential for
showers to move inland from the Gulf, and a few showers had
started developing there prior to midnight.

While the upper impulse and surface low that brought heavy rain and
severe weather to the area early this morning have moved well to the
north, a very moist airmass remained along the Interstate 55
corridor. The evening upper air soundings here and at JAN still had
precipitable water values near 2 inches, which is still above the
90th percentile climatologically. Even though weak upper ridging
will build into the area through Wednesday, until we can get rid of
some of the moisture, we`ll still have the potential for isolated to
scattered showers, and perhaps a few storms, especially during the
afternoon hours today and Wednesday. Some drying may make it as far
east as around Interstate 55 the next couple days with precipitable
water values dropping to about the 75th percentile (1.6 inches).
Mississippi coastal areas may remain near the 90th percentile (1.8
inches).

The amount of cloud cover will have quite a bit to do with
determining high temperatures the next couple of days. As we saw
Monday afternoon, a couple hours of sunshine allowed temperatures to
get into the mid and upper 80s. With somewhat more sunshine expected
the next couple days, upper 80s are reasonable for highs, with areas
that get a little more sunshine sneaking into the lower 90s. Would
note that record highs at our 4 official climate sites for tomorrow
are between 92 and 94F.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Upper ridging is expected to become centered over west Texas by
Wednesday night. The ridge will extend northward through much of the
Plains States through at least Saturday, with the upper flow across
the local area becoming northwesterly. This will likely push a cold
front through the area Thursday. While the front may not be
accompanied by precipitation, it should usher in drier air with dew
points falling into the 60s Thursday afternoon, with even drier air
to follow. Once the front moves through, that`s likely to end any
precipitation threat for the remainder of the forecast period.

High temperatures could still reach the upper 80s Thursday depending
on the timing of the frontal passage, but will be in the lower and
middle 80s beyond that point. The drier air will be most noticeable
in overnight lows. Thursday morning lows could still be upper 60s to
mid 70s, but over the weekend, morning lows could fall below 60
degrees north of the Interstate 10/12 corridor, and to the mid 60s
in southshore locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Starting to see some lower clouds with forecast issuance, as
several terminals were reporting clouds or ceilings around FL010.
No visibility restrictions yet, but probably just a matter of
time. Do expect some fog development, with most likely terminals
to be impacted KMCB/KHDC/KBTR and KASD. LIFR or lower conditions
possible for several hours around sunrise until heating dissipates
the fog by mid-morning.

With precipitable water values still remaining high to the east of
Interstate 55 during the afternoon, there will be potential for
isolated to scattered convection, and will carry PROB30 at
KNEW/KASD/KGPT during the afternoon hours. Convection should
dissipate with sunset, but there will be an additional threat for
fog around sunrise Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

High pressure has started to become more dominant over the
waters, allowing easterly to southeasterly winds to relax a bit to
between 10 and 15 knots and seas to also decrease to 2 to 4 feet.
This brief respite in rougher conditions will end on Wednesday as
another low in the southern Gulf develops and gradually pushes to
the west. Strong high pressure will again set up over New
England, with the pressure gradient increasing winds again. Small
Craft Exercise Caution headlines may be necessary as early as
Wednesday night for portions of the waters, with Small Craft
Advisories probably needed by Thursday night. The difference
between next weekend and last weekend is going to be the wind
direction, which should be more northeasterly, somewhat limiting
coastal flooding issues for the Mississippi coast and Lake
Pontchartrain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  69  85  65 /  20  10  20   0
BTR  90  71  89  67 /  20  10  10   0
ASD  86  69  87  66 /  30  10  10   0
MSY  89  74  90  73 /  30  10  10  10
GPT  84  71  87  68 /  40  20  20  10
PQL  86  69  88  67 /  50  20  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for LAZ034>037-
     039-046>048-056>058-071-076-079>086.

GM...None.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ068>071-
     077.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW