Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
701 FXUS64 KLIX 081814 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 114 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 103 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026 - An active weather pattern will continue through the weekend with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. - The main concern will be potential for locally heavy rainfall, especially today and Saturday. High rainfall rates in some storms will be capable of overwhelming drainage capacity and leading to ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage areas, with the heaviest storms potentially leading to isolated flash flooding. While severe weather is a less likely threat, one or two strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out. IF any storms become severe, the main threat will be damaging wind gusts. - Residents should remain weather-aware through the weekend and plan ahead for potential street flooding - especially if normal commuting routes include flood-prone underpasses and other poor drainage spots. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 103 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026 Ongoing showers and storms currently look to be transitioning to more of a flash flood threat than a severe threat - especially for areas along/north of the I-10/12 corridor. Eventually a fast- moving mid-level disturbance will force this activity to begin shifting southeastward, and most CAM guidance suggests the showers and storms should be moving out of the local area around or shortly after 00z. Thereafter, who knows what tonight holds. The CAMs generally have only isolated showers overnight while the globals are a bit more aggressive in keeping convection going through at least the first part of tonight. With the CAMs having struggled mightily in this pattern, certainly can`t rule out the continued scattered to locally numerous showers overnight. What seems to be fairly consistent is that another disturbance will race through the local area Saturday leading to yet another round of widespread showers and storms, especially along/north of the interstate corridor. Efficient rainfall in some of these storms will continue to lead to at least an isolated flash flood threat and we continue to be outlooked with a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. Looking at how today has played out and the rainfall totals we`ve seen already in some areas, would not be at all surprised to see the marginal upgraded to a slight. Going into Sunday it`ll be more of the same. Another fast-moving disturbance will move through the local area some time Sunday/Sunday night, forcing a cold front through the area with another round of showers and storms accompanying it. This activity currently looks to remain a bit more progressive, which should help limit the flash flood threat. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 103 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026 This is one of those weird situations where confidence in the long term forecast is higher than the short term. All guidance is in pretty good agreement that the front will push into the northern Gulf Monday. While some lingering post-frontal showers will continue to be possible Monday morning, by the afternoon these, too, should be moving off the coast. In the wake of the front, a drier air mass will build into the area. The dry air mass will allow for large diurnal temperature ranges - especially Tues/Wed mornings when overnight lows will bottom out in the 50s for most areas away from the nola metro and immediate coast of SE LA, and highs reaching the low to mid 80s. A gradual warming trend in morning lows will begin midweek as moisture start to return to the area. Afternoon highs will continue in the near to slightly warmer than normal range through the remainder of the work week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 103 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026 Widespread showers and thunderstorms will affect the terminals this afternoon into the first part of this evening, accompanied by periods of IFR conditions. Even outside of showers and storms, cigs likely won`t rise much above 1500ft. Continuing to rely heavily on latest CAM guidance in an attempt to time worst conditions associated with heavier storms. Latest CAMs indicate widespread convection shifting east of the local terminals between 00z and 03z, remaining generally quiet through the remainder of the night, and that is what is reflected in the TAFs. However, global models indicate continued precip through the night, so there is higher than normal uncertainty regarding the forecast beyond 00z and there could be significant changes reflected in later TAF packages. Expect to see widespread shower and thunderstorm activity during the day Saturday. && .MARINE... Issued at 103 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026 South to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots will persist through the weekend. Another frontal boundary will move into the waters Sunday night into Monday morning, bringing offshore winds to the waters for early next week. Winds should remain below headline criteria through the period, with the greatest concern being scattered to numerous showers and storms, mainly Saturday through Sunday night. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DM LONG TERM....DM AVIATION...DM MARINE...DM