310
FXUS64 KLIX 011015
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
515 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 413 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast each day
  through the week.

- While the overall severe weather threat will be low, one or two
  storms could become strong to severe each day, producing strong
  to damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning and periods of heavy
  rain.

- Tropical Storm Eduoard will continue to move away from the area
  making landfall today along the northwestern gulf coast. Local
  impacts are expected to remain limited to marine areas which
  will ease through this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Friday night)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

As Tropical Storm Edouard continues to move away from the area,
conditions closest to the system will improve through this
morning. The fcast will carry forward with not much in the way of
changes from the previous fcast, at least for the short term.
There should be a diurnal rythm to the sh/ts that develop for the
next few days in that we should see activity inland during the day
and over the gulf waters during the morning hours. Since storm
motion will be toward shore, some of these will also move inland
during the morning hours. There are no real indicators to any one
location getting more rain or stronger storms than another, so
this daily scenario looks very summerish. As we move into the end
of the work week, the two areas over the Bahamas will have moved
far enough west to start producing higher rain chances over the NE
gulf and adjoining landmass. This air mass will creep far enough
west and north to increase rain chances for more areas as well,
or at least keep them the same, through the end of the week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Monday night)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Heading into the weekend models show the ridge becoming re-
established to our northwest however ridging will still stretch
back into the southeastern CONUS before L/W troughing finally digs
down along the Atlantic coast Monday. Biggest question is will we
see another tropical wave (possibly the remnants of TS Dolly)
move into the central Gulf by the end of the week. If we see one
more tropical wave this would likely keep the rain chances on the
higher end through much of next weekend. At this time see nothing
that would suggest rain being completely suppressed over the
weekend so will continue to stick with the latest NBM. As we move
into next week things may begin to transition more into a very
warm and dry scenario.

Heading into Friday night the elongated mid lvl ridge that has been
north and northeast of the region will begin to see hghts rise
pretty quickly off to our northwest. The ridge will start to become
more established over the southern and central Plains Saturday while
the ridge axis will still drape back to the southeast through the
southeastern CONUS. Ridging will also build to the southwest over
western TX and into northwestern Mexico. The one problem with that
is that if there is a tropical wave moving into the
northwestern/north-central Gulf Friday/Friday night it would get
trapped by the ridge building both to the north and west of it while
remaining in place to the northeast. Depending on actual location of
that wave we could see the potential for locally heavy rain over the
area or just off to our west. That disturbance will have no where to
go Saturday and Sunday until the L/W trough starts to dig across the
Appalachians and Atlantic coast allowing the disturbance to finally
escape. With that it looks like we will maintain 50-70% PoPs on
Saturday and 40-50% PoPs Sunday with the best chance for locally
heavy rain along the coastal areas of southeast LA.

The ridge will be centered to our west-northwest and we may just be
on the periphery that would keep us from being completely
suppressed. Moisture is still going to be quite abundant and it will
not take much to get scattered convection on Monday. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 413 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

RA, TSRA and associated CIGS will develop again today with most
of this activity near the coast. Areas closest to Edouard will
have the highest chances of TSRA. The lowest levels for cigs will
be in MVFR range with RA and/or TSRA. Most terminals will be in
VFR for the majority of the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Tropical Storm Edouard will continue moving west-northwest making
landfall along the northwestern Gulf coast today. As this system
pulls away from the local marine areas, the small craft advisory
will be lowered to caution statements this morning for gulf waters
from Port Fourchon westward. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms
will remain possible each day with winds and waves higher in and
near this activity. Outside of thunderstorms, winds should remain
near or below 15 knots for the remainder of the week.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT early this morning for
     GMZ541-551-570.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT early this morning for
     GMZ551-570.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE