507
FXUS64 KLIX 182332
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
632 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Seeing some isolated showers along the Mississippi Coast this
afternoon, which lines up well with the low PoPs that were added for
that area. These will likely stick around through sunset, possibly
spread up through the Pearl River into SW MS, and then begin to die
off rather quickly after.

The upper level trough sitting over the eastern CONUS will gradually
start to move off into the Atlantic over the next day or so as an
upper level ridge spreads eastward from the Southern Plains. As this
happens we will see some drier air filter into the area, which keeps
fairly low PoPs for tomorrow ~15-20%. Did bring PoPs up for some
areas that have a better chance at spotty showers. The areas with
the best chance at an isolated shower tomorrow will be generally
similar to today, along the MS Coast and up towards SW MS. Made some
very minor temperature adjustments for Thursday`s highs, just basing
things off of today`s temperature. Otherwise most areas will see the
upper 80s to lower 90s Thursday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Upper-level ridging seems to firmly be in place over the area as
we get into the weekend. The suppression of the ridge along with
dry air above 750mb will keep the weekend mostly uneventful. We
can take that after last week for sure. In fact, we look to keep
PW between the 25th and 50th percentile throughout the weekend.
Needless to say, expect dry and pleasant conditions over the
course of this weekend.

Medium-range ensembles seem to agree that a trough coming across the
Midwest will try to break down the ridge over the southern CONUS.
This will help bring higher moisture content into the area with above
average PW. However, current indications are that the trough will
remain too far to the north and the ridge will still be over our
area, keeping rain chances limited, but not non-zero like the
weekend.

The ensembles really start to diverge towards the second half of
next week, but that is to be expected at this range. Most of them
have another deeper-digging trough behind the aforementioned trough
but the biggest difference seems to be trough strength and how far
it digs down across the southern Plains. This of course will have a
big impact on what the tropical wave currently in the caribbean will
do, but given how far out that is and the spread in guidance, it is
just something to watch for right now. We do not expect any tropical
impacts within the next week, but it is always best to stay prepared
since we are still in the thick of hurricane season.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

VFR conditions in place at all terminals. A few isolated SHRA
south of Lake Pontchartrain, but not even close enough to justify
a vicinity mention. Any precipitation should dissipate in the next
hour or two. Main forecast question will again be whether low
clouds or fog develop around sunrise. Will carry brief flight
restrictions at KBTR and KMCB, with expected improvement prior to
15z Thursday. If there is any precipitation at all on Thursday,
expect areal coverage to be 20 percent or less, and will not carry
mention in the current forecast package.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

High pressure centered over the waters through the end of the week
will bring light winds for the next few days. This also keeps calm
seas, generally ~1ft. Heading into the weekend we will see a much
more steady, 10-15kts, easterly flow over the waters which will
subsequently bring seas up a bit as well. Waterspouts remain
possible with any convection that fires over the waters, mainly
through tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  89  67  90 /  20  20  20   0
BTR  74  93  73  95 /   0  10  10   0
ASD  73  91  70  92 /  10  20  20   0
MSY  74  89  75  90 /  10  10  10   0
GPT  73  88  71  90 /  20  20  20   0
PQL  72  93  71  94 /  20  20  20   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HL
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...HL