235
FXUS64 KLIX 052312 AAA
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
512 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...NEW AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 246 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

A weak but quick moving shortwave trough is currently moving through
the Central and High Plains. This feature doesn`t have much shape
any farther south than OK/AR latitude. This will flatten the upper
ridge that was in place but generally will remain too far north to
have any significant impacts to the local forecast. CAMs indicate
the potential for scattered light showers Thursday early to late
morning across southeastern portions of the CWA. That lines up quite
well with plume of moisture GFS shows via PW fcst will track from SW
to NE across the area in those same hours. This adds another layer
of complication in terms of forecasting fog. SREF guidance again
indicates highest probs where we had the fog advisory out for
yesterday. Based on timing of onset of fog vs shower development,
will go ahead with the advisory with this forecast package. Will add
lower LA parishes from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the
Atchafalaya River where fog was noted on obs this morning.

Even though the ridge axis aloft is more zonal right now, a
generally high 500mb height regime is still in place. It will
continue to lead to unseasonably warm temps, especially overnight
lows. In fact, forecast lows are at or just below normal highs for
this time of year. That`ll continue over to the daytime temps with
near records again on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 246 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Zonal to slight upper level ridging across the mid section of the
country now into this weekend will maintain near record high
temperatures each day. NBM deterministic guidance has been between a
bit below the 50th percentile. Due to recent cold bias, went ahead
and increased highs closer to that NBM50 thru Fri. Fog potential
really doesn`t change much during this timeframe either. Shouldn`t be
surprising considering limited overall change in the synoptic
pattern.

Medium range model solutions continue a broad longwave trough
digging into the western US. This will begin to breakdown any upper
ridge axis in the central US. Over time, shortwave moving through
the base of the trough could bring periods of increased rain chances
to the Gulf Coast late this weekend into early next week.
Uncertainty remains high on timing and amounts for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

A mix of VFR and MVFR across the region with GPT being the lowest
with LIFR CIGs. Once again VIS and CIG reductions are anticipated
during the overnight and early morning hours on Thursday. IFR will
be common with LIFR possible. Like the last few days local
terminals will improve to VFR during the late morning or by early
afternoon respectively. Southerly flow will remain in place but
winds will hang around 10kts or less. (Frye)


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

A surface ridge will remain anchored near or over Florida throughout
the forecast period. That`ll keep winds onshore with small
variations in direction. Minimal changes in pressure gradient as the
synoptic pattern remains similar from day to day means wind speeds
shouldn`t change much either. Thus, generally expected southeast
flow 5-10 knots with periods of 10-15 knots and seas/waves 1-3 feet
or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  62  80  60  80 /   0  10  10   0
BTR  65  83  63  83 /   0  10  10   0
ASD  62  79  61  80 /   0  10  10  10
MSY  64  78  62  80 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  60  73  60  73 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  60  77  60  78 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Thursday
     for LAZ039-066>068-071-076-079>082.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Thursday
     for GMZ530-532-534-550-552.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Thursday
     for MSZ070-071-077-083>088.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Thursday
     for GMZ532-534-550-552.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...ME