Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
480 FXUS64 KLIX 011124 AAA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 624 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 ...NEW AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 250 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 The upper pattern continues to be characterized by upper ridging near Bermuda, and over the Texas-Louisiana border region. In between, a weak upper low or trough was centered near Tampa this evening. There was also a shortwave moving through the western Great Lakes. The airmass locally remained rather moist, with precipitable water values near or above 2 inches, which is around the 90th percentile climatologically. Evening convection had pretty much died out by about 9 PM CDT. The upper low near the Florida coast may drift a little further west during the day today, with little change in the moisture content across the area. Looks like another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and they could again be off to an early start by mid to late morning. The threat for severe weather and/or excessive rainfall is low, but not zero. Most convection should again die out by about 9 PM. On Wednesday, the trough moving through the western Great Lakes this evening will be moving through the Ohio River Valley. That will push a weak frontal boundary into, and likely through the local area. About the only thing that the frontal boundary will accomplish is to bring drier air into the area starting late in the day on Wednesday, with precipitable water values across the northwest half of the area falling into the 1.25 to 1.5 inch range. While the wind shift to northwesterly is likely to occur Wednesday, lower dew points will lag the front and may not arrive until Thursday. So, there may still be a decent amount of showers and storms on Wednesday, especially across the southeast half of the area. High temperatures likely to reach the lower 90s both days in areas that don`t get thunderstorms prior to noon, with Wednesday potentially being the warmer of the two days. (RW) && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 250 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Going into the long term period a bit drier and hotter pattern takes shape across the CWFA. A weak H5 ridge develops and tries to move eastward toward our region from the Red River Valley/ArkLaTex region. Although this will not shut down all rainfall potential, it will be very limited across the region. As the high builds in overhead plus the decreasing POPs, expect temperatures to increase into the middle 90s for a large chunk of the region. RH values need to be monitored as if dewpoints are a bit higher there may be a need for heat headlines going into the holiday/holiday weekend timeframe. However, guidance is suggesting daytime RH values will be a bit lower due to some dry air aloft potentially mixing down to the surface. That said, it will still be hot no less with heat index values still in the 100-105F range respectively Thursday-Saturday and perhaps beyond. Going further into the holiday weekend the overall upper pattern becomes "interesting" as the H5 ridge builds stronger over the southwest and high plains. Meanwhile, just to our east an upper low will be situated off the coast of the Carolinas leading to a very interesting northeasterly flow aloft across the region. This mid/ULL eventually is forecast to move west over the southeast US or northern Gulf. There are some differences appearing in the globals so exact details are a bit fuzzy, if you will. However, in either solution the ridge continues to breakdown leading to once again a wetter period as the diurnal convection becomes enhanced with the weakness rather close to our region. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Mostly VFR conditions again outside of convection and perhaps some morning fog. Covered fog/VIS with TEMPOs later this morning respectively. More convection areawide again. Continued the PROBs/TEMPOs later this afternoon for TSRA. Expect variable and gusty winds with the heaviest activity. Outside of storms, winds are forecast to remain light and southerly. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 250 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Winds are expected to maintain a westerly component today before a frontal boundary moves into the waters on Wednesday. Offshore winds are expected to be prevalent from late Wednesday or Thursday into at least the first half of the holiday weekend before onshore flow returns. Wind speeds will generally remain less than 15 knots, with the more general concern daily/nightly rounds of showers and thunderstorms, which would produce locally higher winds and seas. Most frequent timing will be late night and morning hours through Wednesday over the open waters, and afternoon and early evening over the lakes and sounds. There may be a lull in thunderstorm development from early Thursday through Saturday. (RW) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 91 72 91 71 / 70 30 30 10 BTR 93 75 92 74 / 50 20 50 10 ASD 92 73 92 72 / 60 30 50 10 MSY 93 78 92 78 / 50 30 70 20 GPT 91 74 92 73 / 80 40 40 10 PQL 90 73 92 71 / 80 40 40 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RW