Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
540 FXUS64 KLIX 212345 AAA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 645 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 ...NEW AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 An approaching trough will linger over the area tonight through Saturday morning. Southerly surface winds will help to advect moist air into the area. This pattern combined with deep Gulf moisture will produce scattered to numerous showers and storms across the area. PWs will be around 2 inches, which will be around the 75-90th percentiles for SPC sounding climatology. Rainfall rates will be fairly efficient with any storm development. Generally, these storms will occur during the afternoon and early evening peak heating hours tonight and Friday. The main risk with these storms will be gusty subsevere winds (40-50mph) and locally heavy rainfall. Localized street flooding could be an issue, as well, especially if a storm sets up or stalls over an urban area. Temperatures will be generally in the low 90s with dewpoints in the upper 70s. MSW && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 The trough will slide south into the Gulf over the weekend. Rain chances will remain during the afternoon and evening hours Saturday and Sunday as the system moves slowly southward. Conditions will likely be a little drier on Sunday. The main concerns with these storms will be subsevere gusty winds (30-50mph) and locally heavy rainfall. Another cold front moves through the area Monday into Tuesday, helping to reinforce some cooler feeling temperatures. Generally, rain chances will be increased Monday afternoon and evening and Tuesday afternoon and evening. These storms will likely be later initiation, later into the evening, due to the more northerly flow pattern that will set up over the area. Generally, temperatures Monday through Wednesday will be in the low 90s with dewpoints in the low 70s and upper 60s across the area. Conditions start to dry out a little Wednesday and especially toward the end of next week. Still a lot of uncertainty, but generally expecting a drier pattern to start setting up from mid- week onward. MSW && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 Isolated to scattered convection is starting to decrease this evening. VFR conditions are expected through the overnight and into the day on Friday. Numerous showers and thunderstorms look to develop Friday evening similar to today, which will have impacts on VIS/CIGs. Additionally, winds may be gusty around the strongest activity. Outside of storms, winds will remain light and variable. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 Outside of showers and thunderstorms mostly favorable winds and seas are expected through the upcoming weekend. Winds will remain mostly onshore at or less than 10 knots. Winds and sea will increase in and around convection. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 72 90 71 92 / 30 60 20 40 BTR 73 91 73 92 / 40 70 20 40 ASD 72 90 71 91 / 50 70 40 70 MSY 78 93 77 92 / 40 80 40 70 GPT 74 90 74 89 / 50 70 40 70 PQL 73 90 72 90 / 40 70 50 70 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSW LONG TERM....MSW AVIATION...RDF MARINE...MSW