Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
915 FXUS64 KLIX 052339 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 639 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 635 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026 - Scattered showers and storms are forecast through the remainder of the holiday weekend. While the overall severe weather threat will be low, one or two storms could become strong to severe. The primary threats will be strong wind gusts, frequent lightning and periods of heavy rain leading to localized flash flooding. - Above normal temperatures expected most of the 7-Day forecast period. Afternoon heat indices will generally range from 100 to 108 degrees. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026 Going into the afternoon hours isolated to scattered showers are ongoing across the region, which CAMs are highlighting close to perfectly. This will likely persist through the peak heating hours before slowly clearing later this evening. Overall, the showers seem to be a bit lackluster in terms of vertical growth so far this morning. Despite the lack of growth and limited lightning out there, PWATs on the 12z RAOB this morning were around 2.35" which is helping whatever does fall become very efficient. Also, the winds in the lowest third of the atmosphere are incredible lackluster meaning very little to give convection much motion. Therefore, localized flash flooding will remain possible this afternoon and evening. Going into Sunday we will remain on the backside of the easterly wave moving into southeast Texas. Things tend to appear a bit drier for Sunday with more limited convective coverage overall. As QPF/POPs decrease a bit, inversely you better believe daytime temperatures will increase with most of the region climbing into the lower to possibly middle 90s. Heat index values on Sunday are not quite to advisory thresholds, however, Labor Day as an upper ridge becomes more established over the southeast our temperatures warm into the middle 90s with near advisory thresholds for heat index values. Globals are showing a weak backdoor cold front approaching the region, but most guidance has this feature stalling across our southeast MS Counties or perhaps over southern AL, not quite making it here to help dry us out a bit. In fact, with the front location moisture pooling looks to be a potential problem for both heat index values as well as maybe some morning fog potential as well. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026 Going into the long term we will remain on the southern periphery of a robust 596dam ridge sitting over the Ohio River Valley. On the southern periphery a few inverted troughs will help continue diurnally driven convection, but similar to later on in the short term, the coverage will be a bit more limited with the close proximity to the ridge. Heat will continue with no such luck in anything changing there through midweek. A stalled front will reside over south Alabama so that may help to focus higher convective coverage over southeast Mississippi. Going into late week there are signs of a slight pattern change among the globals and respective ensembles. A weakness develops over the lower MS River Valley, which may send a weak front through the region toward the start of next weekend. Both GFS and ECM are somewhat in reasonable agreement for the medium range, so we will see. At this point think it would mostly be a bit drier rather cooler, but more comfortable is what we are going for at this juncture after the very warm and humid July and August. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026 VFR conditions are forecast to prevail for all terminals outside of any showers or storms causing temporary visibility or ceiling reductions. Today`s convection is nearing its end so outside of short term mentions of rain/storms it falls off in the next hour or so. There will be isolated to scattered storms again tomorrow, but for most terminals, the chances seem low so added PROB30s for the areas that have the most likely chances. Winds are very light and variable otherwise. && .MARINE... Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026 Mostly benign marine conditions through the forecast period as the pressure gradient remains on the weaker side across the local waters and tidal lakes. Mariners can expect winds generally at or less than 10 knots and seas generally 1 to 2 feet. An easterly wave will continue to move west of the region this holiday weekend, which will increase coverage of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the overnight hours. Expect locally higher winds and seas in and around convection. (Frye) && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...BL MARINE...RDF