036
FXUS64 KLIX 230610
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1210 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1204 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

 - A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for southwest Mississippi and
   a portion of southeast Louisiana for potential of freezing rain
   this weekend.

 - After the threat of freezing rain, the cold Arctic airmass
   brings coldest air of this winter season with lows in the teens
   in northern portions of the forecast area to near freezing down
   to Grand Isle. This is generally Sunday morning through
   Tuesday morning.

-  Cold weather headlines will likely be needed for wind chills in
   the single digits in southwest MS to mid teens south of I-10.

 - Near gale force wind conditions are expected to impact the
   coastal waters on Sunday and Monday. These strong winds will
   create hazardous boating conditions in the coastal waters.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1204 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

A broad upper-level trough continues to dominate virtually the
entire CONUS, with the local forecast area currently beneath the
flatter, more zonal segment of that larger-scale flow. At the
surface, a shallow front that pushed into the CWA and stalled
yesterday will drift south over time. Model soundings show just how
shallow this boundary is. And speaking of those soundings, almost
textbook advection fog setup with shallow modest low level inversion
underneath 15-20kt southwesterly winds and dry slot aloft. Already
seeing fog on interstate cams and some areal obs so went ahead and
issued Dense Fog Advisory for this morning. Fairly benign weather
for the remainder of the day.

MEFFER
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1204 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

The high-impact portion of the forecast begins to come into focus
over the weekend as a strong shortwave trough embedded within the
broader CONUS trough dives toward the Gulf Coast. At the same time,
a southern-stream upper low moving east from the Pacific across Baja
California approaches and phases with the northern-stream shortwave
Sunday. Guidance continues to favor this interaction occurring near
the central Gulf Coast.

The resulting setup supports a classic Gulf Coast freezing rain
profile: warm, moist mid levels overrunning an increasingly cold,
shallow Arctic surface layer that is surging southward...but
uncertainly is still relatively high in terms of how far south
into the CWA freezing rain reaches.

Before the cold air gets here the environment setup is a bit
interesting. A fairly sharp temp and dewpoint gradient will exist
across the CWA Saturday with a roughly 30 degree delta-T between
Woodville MS and Boothville LA. If you look at soundings along
coastal areas from LA to MS, cold air aloft combined with those
mid 60 degree temps and you`re seeing some elevate instability.
Not a lot but non-zero. The more impressive parameters are high
shear (not surprising this time if year), moderate helicity and
climatologically high PW`s. So do have some concern for rotating
cells. Surface based?....remains to be seen.

Back to winter wx....the newly combined shortwave and upper low
really digs southeastward Sunday. Temps pretty much hold steady all
morning then start dropping in the afternoon, followed about 18
hours of falling. Model soundings during this later day period show
a very strong warm nose aloftnear 850 mb temperatures roughly 20F
warmer than the surface with a saturated column loft. What`s
different with previous model runs is that they no longer support
freezing rain b/c by the time the air cold enough to support this at
the surface, the mid and upper levels are already drying out. Not
ready to call of the freezing rain potential for one model run.

Regardless of the freezing rain, the arguably bigger hazard for
greater % of those in our CWA will be Sunday night through Tues
morning. Strong high pressure (10351040 mb) builds in and drives
the cold air deeper into the region. Multiple nights of hard freeze
conditions appear likely next week, and parts of the far northern
parishes/counties could remain near or below freezing for **3040
hours**

Impacts don`t end with the ice potential as 1035-1040mb ridge builds
in and really drives in the cold air. There will be multiple nights
going into next week where hard freeze conditions occur. Some
locations in far northern CWA parishes/counties may be near freezing
or below for 30-40 hours. Plus, wind chill values, especially Monday
morn, will be possibly as cold as 0 <---that`s the # Z E R O in
southwest MS and even in the 10-15 degree range down to the LA and
MS coastlines.

Will we see temps rebound after Tuesday? Probably not. Realistically
likely looking at continued cold though not bitterly cold the rest
of next week.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

IFR to LIFR conditions are ongoing at all terminals right now due to
low ceilings and visibilities. Fog, dense at times, will likely hang
around at most terminals through the morning hours. The fog will
then lift. Ceilings will slightly lift as well but still will be
relatively low so terminals will eventually reach MVFR during the
daytime hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1204 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Model sounding profiles suggest that conditions remain favorable for
another round of dense sea fog to develop over the nearshore waters
and lakes this morning. A marine dense fog advisory will be in
effect for that threat.

Stalled and weak front from yesterday will be reinforced as more of
a backdoor front today. That`ll will shift winds to the east and
east-northeast and begin to strengthen them. Wind speeds will also
increase to 15 to 20 knots as the surface pressure gradient tightens
resulting in some exercise caution conditions.  A low pressure
system will approach on Saturday, and this will cause winds to shift
back to the south and increase further into small craft advisory
range.  As the low pulls away Sunday afternoon, a strong cold front
will push through.  Winds will shift to the northwest and north and
wind speeds could further increase to near gale force Sunday night
into Monday.  As high pressure builds in Monday night into Tuesday,
the northerly winds will gradually decrease, but small craft
advisory conditions will persist.

MEFFER
&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday
     afternoon for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-071-083.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for LAZ036-037-
     039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557.

MS...Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday
     afternoon for MSZ068>071.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for MSZ070-071-
     077-083>088.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME