Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
087 FXUS64 KLIX 040505 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1205 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 Weak upper trough continued across Arkansas and Louisiana tonight with an upstream shortwave over Kansas and Oklahoma. At the surface, weak low pressure was noted northeast of Pensacola with a nearly stationary weak frontal boundary near or off the Louisiana coastline. While the 00z LIX upper air sounding was still rather moist with a precipitable water value of 2.1 inches, much drier air was not far away, as the JAN and SHV soundings were in the 1.3-1.4 range and LCH was at 1.7 inches. This explains why there was very little in the way of precipitation or cloud cover across about the northwest half of the area Sunday afternoon. If there is any precipitation the remainder of the night, it would be east of a Slidell to Houma line and more probably will remain offshore. The upper trough isn`t expected to move much today, but the Kansas shortwave will sharpen the trough somewhat on Tuesday as it drops into the base of the trough. It may even serve to pull the trough axis (and associated moisture) back to the west a bit on Tuesday. This would help explain why roughly the northwest third of the area might need at least small chances for precipitation on Tuesday, where it`s more likely to remain dry today. Most of the precipitation today will be limited to the afternoon hours, with the highest probabilities/areal coverage limited to the Mississippi coastal counties and lower portions of the Louisiana coastal parishes. High temperatures across the eastern half of the area probably will not get much past the lower 90s, if that high, both today and Tuesday. The northwest part of the area, including Baton Rouge and McComb, potentially could get closer to 95 if clouds stay away, especially this afternoon. Overnight lows in that area could possibly get down to around 70 in a few spots, but will be in the mid and upper 70s across the remainder of the area. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 The upper trough axis is forecast to nudge a bit further east Wednesday into the weekend. It isn`t forecast to get far enough east of us to dry us out entirely, but will allow enough drier air into the area to lower precipitable water values into the 1.5 to 1.75 inch range for the middle and end of the week through at least Saturday. That should mean only isolated to scattered areal coverage of showers and storms, with western portions of the area perhaps slightly drier than the east. High temperatures look to be in the 90 to 95 range for most of the area for Wednesday through next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 Terminals were VFR at forecast issuance time, and should remain that way most or all night. Frontal boundary is near or south of a KMOB to KHUM line. Frontal boundary isn`t going to move much over the next 24 hours, so there will be at least some threat of TSRA at most terminals during the afternoon with the exception of KMCB and KBTR. For the remaining terminals will use PROB30, except for KGPT, where TEMPO will be used. && .MARINE... Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 Outside of convective impacts, conditions will remain benign across the coastal waters. Areal coverage of thunderstorms will probably remain on the scattered side with diurnal maxima from late night through about midday over the open waters, and during the afternoon and early evening over the lakes and sounds. A few strong storms will be possible each day/night, and could result in gusty winds, waterspouts, and locally higher waves/seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 91 71 91 71 / 20 10 50 20 BTR 93 74 93 74 / 20 10 50 20 ASD 91 72 91 72 / 50 30 70 30 MSY 92 78 92 78 / 50 30 70 20 GPT 91 74 90 75 / 60 50 80 40 PQL 90 73 89 73 / 70 60 80 40 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW