Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
529 FXUS64 KLIX 261027 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 527 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 523 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 - Impactful heat conditions will persist well into the new week. Mid week will be the most intense days with heat indices 110-115 degrees. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Wednesday) Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Upper ridging centered over the Four Corners area northward into Saskatchewan. Troughs were over New England and just off the West Coast. A weak shortwave was diving southeastward into the Florida Panhandle. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the north-central Gulf. Quite a bit of cirrus across the area, and more moving southward through Mississippi. The closest precipitation was a few spotty showers with the Alabama shortwave moving into Florida. Temperatures at midnight were mid 70s to mid 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. The upper ridge and the surface high really won`t be moving a great deal through Wednesday. Shortwaves moving into the New England trough could push a frontal boundary closer to the area, but no indications it will make it any further south than Interstate 20 by Wednesday afternoon. This will keep any organized precipitation to the north of the local area. Won`t be able to entirely rule out an isolated storm or two during max heating on any of the days, but most areas should remain dry. Unfortunately, that means it`s going to be hot the next several days. Today should see widespread mid 90s, but dew points may be just low enough (70-75) to keep heat indices just below Heat Advisory criteria (108F), coordinated with WFO MOB. Day shift can reassess this morning after the sounding data comes in. Monday through Wednesday will almost certainly need Advisories or Warnings. Precipitable water values will be higher, dew points will be higher, and forecast soundings indicate Wednesday will be the hottest day. Early indications are that Monday and Tuesday would probably need Heat Advisories, while Wednesday would necessitate Extreme Heat Warnings for portions of the area. We`ll give it ome more round of guidance before headlines get issued. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Saturday) Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 By late week the pattern begins to change a bit to a little less hot with some slightly higher POPs. Aloft, an H5 east coast trough begins to amplify, which should help to pull a cold frontal boundary pretty far south across our region all the way over into central Florida. As the front aligns with the mean flow, it should stall over the area, which would help provide a consistent focus for shower and storm activity, especially during the diurnal cycle for the majority of the long term. Again, temperatures will not be as warm, but still at or slightly above average for this time of year. Only concern is with the increase in rain chances, an early convective initiation time could mean we are slightly overdoing daytime temperatures a bit. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 523 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 VFR conditions anticipated through just about the entire forecast period at all terminals. A very brief period of light fog right around sunrise can`t entirely be ruled out this morning or Monday morning, but duration would likely be less than an hour. && .MARINE... Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 A rather benign period for marine operations. There will be the usual diurnal increase in winds over the eastern waters where winds approach and sometimes slightly exceed 15 knots during the evening and part of the overnight hours before diminishing. May be limited periods where Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines may be necessary, but it would be a borderline case each day. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW