Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
081 FXUS64 KLIX 010523 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1123 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1055 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 - Areas of frost possible until shortly after sunrise New Years morning near and north of the I-12 corridor before temperatures moderate. Air temperatures are expected to remain above freezing. - Our next chance of rain will be late Friday afternoon into Saturday as another front moves into the area. Although there is some model uncertainty, a very low-end severe weather threat exists during the afternoon and evening Friday, potentially into Saturday. - Beyond Saturday, little or no rain is expected into the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Friday night) Issued at 1055 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Upper ridging was noted over the Rockies with troughing from eastern Canada to Florida, as well as along the Pacific Coast. That puts the local area in northwesterly mid and upper level flow. At the surface, high pressure covered the Gulf and was centered southeast of Houston. At mid-evening, most temperatures were in the 40s, but ranged from the upper 30s to lower 50s under clear skies. The airmass remains rather dry, with regional upper air soundings reporting precipitable water values in the 0.3 to 0.4 inch range. That`s in the 10th to 25th percentile climatologically. A shortwave will move out of the southern Rockies into west Texas during the day, and across the middle Mississippi River Valley on Friday, exiting the area Friday evening. A northern stream shortwave will follow in its wake, approaching the area by sunrise Saturday. The actual cold front will accompany the trailing shortwave, and isn`t likely to move into the area until Saturday morning. As the surface high shifts eastward over the next 36 hours, low level flow will turn onshore with warm and moist low level advection. Precipitable water values will respond, increasing to about 1.2 inches, around the 75th percentile, by Friday afternoon. While shear appears sufficient to produce strong storms, instability remains rather questionable. The most likely scenario is for scattered showers Friday afternoon into the first part of Saturday (prior to noon), with a very low end threat for a few strong storms. Rainfall amounts wouldn`t be significant for most locations, probably less than 0.25 inch. After a chilly start this morning, temperatures will respond quickly with afternoon highs mainly in the upper 60s. Morning lows will be considerably milder Friday morning, upper 40s to mid 50s. Highs Friday should be even warmer, well into the 70s. Verification from Wednesday supports highs around the NBM 75th percentile for the next couple days. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1055 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 The trailing shortwave will push across the area during the day on Saturday. This shortwave will be the one that actually produces a cold frontal passage and ends any threat of rainfall for several days. Most of the area is unlikely to see any precipitation beyond noon Saturday. Cooler and drier air will move into the area by late in the day Saturday. Precipitable water values will fall back to near 0.4 inches by midday Sunday, and remain near or below climatologic means for early January through at least Tuesday, with upper ridging rebuilding over the Gulf. May be a small chance of precipitation by Wednesday or Wednesday night next week, but not even confident of that at this point. High temperatures could occur fairly early in the daytime hours on Saturday depending on timing of the frontal passage, especially in northwest portions of the area. There`s no real cold air behind this front, so highs/lows will only fall back to around normal for Sunday into Monday morning. Early next week looks to return to well above normal temperatures across the area, with no significant influx of cold air noted through about the next 10 days. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 VFR conditions expected through the forecast cycle. The only potential concern would be a reduction in visibilities due to smoke from agricultural fires or local fireworks. There were a few agricultural controlled burns near the Mississippi River Wednesday afternoon that were reflected in surface observations at KBTR and KMSY, and produced weak echoes on KHDC radar. However, have not noted any echoes over the last several hours, or indications in observations. Of course, with it being New Years Eve/New Years morning, brief local reductions in visibilities due to smoke from fireworks wouldn`t be unheard of, either, but would be unlikely to occur beyond 07z or so. && .MARINE... Issued at 1055 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 The frontal systems moving across the area Friday into Saturday will likely necessitate Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines or Small Craft Advisories. Conditions should improve on Sunday with favorable wind and sea conditions beyond that point. Dew points forecast over land early next week don`t really signal fog issues at this point, but temperatures much above normal during the winter justify monitoring for fog. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 67 49 73 59 / 0 5 30 50 BTR 69 51 77 61 / 0 5 30 30 ASD 68 50 75 61 / 0 0 20 60 MSY 69 53 75 64 / 0 0 20 50 GPT 66 51 70 61 / 0 0 20 70 PQL 67 48 72 59 / 0 0 10 70 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW