Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
170 FXUS64 KLIX 241759 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1259 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1243 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Daily scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast during the mid to late afternoon hours through the work week. A few storms could become strong to severe each day. The main threat from any severe storms will be damaging wind gusts. Frequent lightning and brief periods of very heavy rain will also be possible from these storms. Stay weather aware and remember when thunder roars, go indoors. - The increase in rain chances and cloud cover will help limit heat threats through the week, however, heat index values may still approach advisory criteria each day before thunderstorms develop by early afternoon. Those with outdoor plans should continue to take precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses. Stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade or air conditioning if possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Thursday night) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Setup for the short term shows upper level high pressure parked over the desert southwest and extending eastward to roughly east TX and a low over southeast Canada with an attendant trough draped over the east coast. Currently, conditions see an MCS that has transited southward from AR through southern MS and into our area. This will bring showers and thunderstorms beginning over SW MS in the early afternoon and continuing south, transiting the area through evening. Threats include gusty winds, some over 60mph, lightning, and isolated heavy rain that may cause ponding on roadways. Expect afternoon rains to continue through the short term. Not necessarily as widespread as today, but definitely what we know as normal for summertime. Two benefits come from the rain, first is helping to head off the drought conditions and second to drop the temperatures just a bit. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Sunday night) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 The overall atmospheric pattern we`ve been seeing continues; that is, high pressure to the west, a longwave trough over us and up the east coast, and the Bermuda High off the east coast. This setup allows for moisture availability drawn out of the Gulf into the trough weakness, and heat driving afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid-90s for the afternoon highs and in the mid to upper 70s for morning lows. Note that there are some indications that the high pressure over the southwest may push eastward a bit and this would lead to slightly higher temps and slightly less precip. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Shower and thunderstorm complex is moving into and through the area bringing gusty winds and decreased visibilities and ceilings. While the sh/ts are in the vicinity of a given terminal conditions may drop as low as IFR. This weather will clear the area in the evening. Subsequent conditions across the area will then be VFR. Tomorrow afternoon sees a possible decrease to MVFR or IFR due to afternoon convection and these conditions are handled with PROB30 coding. && .MARINE... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Surface high pressure over the Gulf will maintain a generally weak pressure gradient through much of the period. Weak and variable winds around 5 to 10 knots and varying between southerly and westerly will predominate through the week. Today/Monday, a fast moving shortwave/MCS in the afternoons will bring higher winds and variable directions. And, generally, scattered thunderstorms will remain possible every day with winds and waves higher in and near this activity. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM....DS AVIATION...DS MARINE...DS