474
FXUS64 KLIX 080535
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1235 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1214 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

- An active weather pattern will continue through the weekend with
  several rounds of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

- The main concern will be potential for locally heavy rainfall
  and isolated flash flooding - especially over the weekend as
  another cold front approaches and moves into the area.

- Residents should remain weather aware and pay attention to the
  forecast for updates and changes as the details of the heavy
  rain threat continue to be refined.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

An active weather pattern will persist through the weekend as
multiple mid/upper level disturbances move through the
Mississippi Valley. We`re in a bit of a holding pattern overnight
as one disturbance has exited the area, with the frontal boundary
south of Interstate 10. As the front loses its upper support, it
will continue to slow and stall near the coast before washing out
during the morning.

The next disturbance will begin to eject out of northern Mexico
during the day in response to another shortwave diving southeast
through the Rockies. This should be enough to fire off scattered
to locally numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms across the
region this afternoon.

Late tonight and Saturday look to be the wettest periods as the
disturbance crosses the local area firing off numerous showers and
embedded storms across the region. With PW values forecast to be
around 2 inches, some storms will be capable of producing efficent
rainfall. Wouldn`t be surprised to see at least a few storms
producing localized totals of 1-2" in a short period of time. The
high rainfall rates could lead to ponding of water in low lying
and poor drainage areas and/or isolated flash flooding. We
continue to be outlooked with a Marginal Risk of excessive
rainfall through Saturday, and if it looks like convection will
become a bit more organized, the threat level could be bumped up
to slight.

Yet another disturbance will move into/through the middle
Mississippi Valley late Sunday/Sunday night. This one will force a
cold front through the area with another round of showers and
storms along/ahead of it.

Clouds and precipitation are expected to hold diurnal temperature
ranges down to about 10 degrees today and Saturday. Sunday may be
a little warmer, especially if we get a little sunshine ahead of
the approaching trough and cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Model agreement through the long term period is in decently good
agreement, and this lends to higher confidence in a drier and more
stable period of weather once we move past Sunday night.  Sunday
night will continue to see a risk of shower and thunderstorm
activity due to the passage of a strong northern stream longwave
trough axis and associated frontal boundary through the region. A
review of model soundings for Sunday night indicates that shear will
be limited with directional shear peaking around 100 m2/s2 and speed
shear of 30 knots or less.  However, ample instability will be in
place ahead of the front with MUCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/KG expected
for the overnight hours.  As a result, despite the limited shear, a
few stronger thunderstorms could accompany the front as it passes
through the region.

After the trough axis and attendant front sweep east of the area on
Monday, strong negative vorticity and dry air advection will take
hold on the back of a building ridge and deep layer northerly flow
Skies will rapidly clear and PWATS will plunge around half an inch
by Tuesday morning.  These clear and dry conditions will persist
through Thursday night as the deep layer northerly flow pattern
remains in place.  Temperatures will be near to slightly above
average, but a large diurnal range is expected each day.  Highs will
easily climb into the low to mid 80s each afternoon, but overnight
lows will cool a good 30 degrees into the mid to upper 50s over
inland areas and the low 60s south of Lake Pontchartrain both Monday
and Tuesday nights.  Some slow warming of the overnight lows back
into the low to mid 60s over inland areas the mid to upper 60s south
of the lake will occur on Wednesday and Thursday night.  Overall, a
very benign stretch of weather is expected from Monday through the
end of the workweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

A persistent stratus deck will remain in place for most terminals
through the entire forecast period. This stratus deck will vary
between IFR and MVFR conditions at all of the terminals with
prevailing ceilings ranging from 800 to 2000 feet. MVFR ceilings
of 1000 to 2000 feet will be prevalent at the terminals for the
next few hours. After 08z, the stratus deck will gradually lower
to near 1000 feet expected from 10z through late morning. As
temperatures warm, the stratus deck will lift back to around 1500
to 2000 feet after 18z. Convective activity will also increase
after 16z, and PROB30 wording is in place to add in a mention of
scattered thunderstorm activity at all of the terminals.
Precipitation will likely continue into the overnight hours, but
coverage of thunderstorms may diminish.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

A weak frontal boundary will continue to wash out near the coast
overnight. By afternoon, south to southeast winds of 10 to 15
knots will return, and these winds will persist through the
weekend. Another frontal boundary will move into the waters Sunday
night into Monday morning, bringing offshore winds to the waters
for early next week. Winds should remain below headline criteria
through the period, with the greatest concern being scattered to
numerous showers and storms, mainly Saturday through Sunday night.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW