Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
420 FXUS64 KLIX 220439 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1139 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 An H5 weakness remains over the region and a surface trough/front still resides generally between the I10/20 corridor. This feature hasn`t moved much over the past day or so and likely will remain close at least through the the weekend before it slides far enough south to dry out most of the region Saturday night. The upper level weakness and surface trough will be enough to help generate showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. We may see some marginally severe storms on occasion where wider and strong updrafts occur with strong damaging wind gusts being the primary concern...this will likely be the exception rather than the rule. Heavy rain potential will also be there with PWATs over 2.0 through much of the short term. With the more efficent rainfall rates and slow moving cells reliant on boundary propagation, localized flooding will be possible in the lower spots. The good news is with rainfall around, temperatures will remain only in the lower 90s through Saturday. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday night) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 As the surface front moves southward, rain will begin to shift with it. The best potential for rainfall late into the weekend will be along and south of I10. As we start the new workweek rain chances shift a bit more to the south as drier air works into the region. Once again the main theme here is with lower rain chances those temperatures inversely will start to climb again. Indeed, it appears by early next week we will be soaring back into the middle 90s. The good news is humidity values will be reduced, so that should prevent the need for heat headlines. Beyond this going into midweek next week a large scale upper level trough will start to dig across the eastern US. This will send yet another front southward through the region. There will be an enhancement of POPs Tuesday and Wednesday, but behind the front much drier air will again filter into the region. High temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday are only advertised in the upper 80s or lower 90s, however, the overnight lows should be more delightful with many locations along and north of I10 dropping into the middle or upper 60s overnight. Globals agree on the front, but timing of passage is still a bit uncertain at this stage. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the overnight and into the day on Friday. Numerous showers and thunderstorms look to develop by afternoon, which will have impacts on VIS/CIGs. Additionally, winds may be gusty around the strongest activity. Outside of storms, winds will remain light and variable. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1135 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 Convection will continue to be a concern, especially during the overnight and into the morning hours each day through the upcoming weekend. Locally higher winds and seas can be expected in and around storms. Otherwise, benign marine conditions anticipated with winds less than 10kts and seas at or less than 2 feet. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 92 72 91 71 / 60 30 50 20 BTR 94 73 91 73 / 70 40 70 30 ASD 93 72 91 71 / 70 50 70 40 MSY 95 78 92 77 / 60 40 80 40 GPT 93 75 90 74 / 60 50 70 40 PQL 93 73 91 72 / 60 50 70 50 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RDF