177
FXUS64 KLIX 300442
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1142 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Plenty to discuss as we type this discussion late Tuesday night,
with many uncertainties in the forecast in the near-term thru
early Wednesday and slightly beyond into the afternoon. Starting
out with radar/obs trends, the cluster of storms that caused
isolated severe wind gusts/damage during the afternoon on Tuesday
has evolved by spreading out a cold pool surging an outflow
boundary west and south into northern Gulf waters. Elsewhere, SPC
Mesoanalysis illustrates ample CINH across the area as we`ve
cooled/decoupled but still maintain ample elevated instability.
Meanwhile, a surface high pressure center remains analyzed just
south of Lake Charles and Houston in the NW Gulf, with a
generalized mean NE flow setup over the northern Gulf coast, on
the eastern periphery of the H5 ridge center over NE TX. Upstream,
we`re seeing lingering weak clusters of storms and associated
small cold pools over E MS and W AL. Now that we`ve set up where
the players are on the field, recent HRRR guidance plays some
tricky situations attempting to resolve where these current
clusters progress. 1) Ongoing convection over our western
waters/coastal zones and associated boundary slows, pressing up
against W to SW surface flow increasing sfc confluence. Recent
HRRR trends see this as identified strong low-level
confluence/lift to support re-igniting coastal/marine convection
through the morning hours. The inherited 01Z NBM is pretty loud
with this solution, with a steady uptick in PoP`s for marine areas
up to 40 to 60% through the daybreak to mid- morning hours,
eventually surging a boundary north and spreading convection north
to I-10/12 early in the day. Will advertise low confidence for how
far north this convection can build towards the interstate early
this morning. Currently anticipating it to be less in the way of
convection in central areas, but will monitor trends and should
see greater coverage over the coast. That`s player 1. Player 2 is
the upstream small complex(s) over E MS and W AL, and how this
evolves, or additional convection re-fires on boundaries entering
our NE areas early this morning. Given widespread strong CINH as
previously mentioned, having a hard time believing any remnant
forcing can overcoming the CINH in place especially given the
nocturnal timing. However, that`s not to say we can`t see some
isolated/scattered redevelopment, especially around coastal areas.
Did keep in the NBM painting 20-30% coverage over "greatest"
confidence east of I-59. How either/or both solutions play out will
determine how the heat builds tomorrow. If convection is far
greater in the morning hours, remnant anvil canopy (or earlier
development of convection) may offset how hot we get. Not
confident on this, at all, and not anywhere close enough confident
to touch the heat advisory, as it`ll still be hot regardless of
where storms form. Just be aware, future forecast updates may be
required to catch on how trends play out. Generally speaking after
analyzing the regional synopsis and radar/mesoanalysis trends, we
should see a mostly quiet night but as we all know, that can
change.

Wednesday will feature another hot day and at some point (likely
late morning), convective turnover will occur and we`ll see more
coverage over land. We could be faced with a very similar
convective storm mode/pattern and coverage going into the
afternoon/evening hours, with storms (numerous in some areas)
expected. Storms will be mainly forced by previous storm`s outflow
boundaries, and any boundary interactions/collisions will lead to
localized stronger updrafts owing in isolated severe wind gusts,
again similar to what we saw Tuesday. Something to keep an eye on.
Otherwise, no major adjustments were needed to temperatures.

Generally much of the same going into Thursday, but CAMs being a
bit farther out looks more "typical" with morning isolated marine
convection and then turnover to scattered/numerous land convection
during the day. Generally seeing a similar tropospheric profile
aloft to suggest ongoing isolated strong/severe storm or two
depending on boundary interactions/collisions. Currently
anticipating another day of heat advisories, but will let
subsequent shifts access the need given updated guidance. KLG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Elevated rain chances, mainly from late morning through evening
persists going into Friday and the upcoming weekend, this will be
due in part by an approaching weak mid-level impulse within a
weakness separated by two H5 594dm ridge centers (one over the SW
US, and the other in the NE Gulf). This will allow for a weak
front to approach the northern Gulf but slow down with time,
supporting a generalized larger-scale foci for ascent needed for
more numerous shower/storm coverage. Will also need to look at the
risk for isolated flash flooding, but will double check this
closer as we get into the late week time frame. Good news is
(some) of the heat backs off, hopefully finally getting below
advisory criteria towards atleast the later part of the weekend.
Still plenty of time to monitor trends with latest guidance, but
for now, have that umbrella handy and be weather-aware this
weekend. KLG

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Recent radar/obs and trends illustrate re-development of TSRA
mainly across far coastal SE LA. Did adjust and attempt to time
greatest storm coverage for the next 6hrs through 12Z for most
terminals, but will advertise low confidence on how far north and
east this activity can back build over land. Regardless, southern
coastal terminals could see impacts early this morning (09-15Z)
with SCT TSRA at times, reducing flight categories due to low CIGs
and VIS. We`ll see another round of SCT TSRA again developing
across land areas in the late morning, continuing into the
afternoon/early evening hours to around 00-02z. Same impacts in
any one strong storm, gusty erratic downdraft winds will be the
main risks (upwards of 40 to 50 knots in any stronger, localized
downburst). Outside of any TSRA activity, expect VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

We`ll continue to see an enhancement of mainly overnight through
morning hour storm coverage each day through late this week and
especially going into the weekend. In any one stronger/severe
storm, wind gusts greater than 34 knots, waterspouts, and locally
enhanced waves/seas can be expected. However, outside of any storm
activity, conditions will be mainly calm with light to
occasionally breezy onshore winds and light waves/seas expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  95  73  93 /  40  70  40  70
BTR  78  95  76  95 /  40  70  30  70
ASD  75  93  75  94 /  50  70  30  70
MSY  79  94  80  94 /  60  70  30  80
GPT  77  93  78  93 /  40  60  30  70
PQL  75  94  77  93 /  40  60  30  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ034>037-
     039-046>048-056>060-064-065-070-071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ068>071-
     077-083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLG
LONG TERM....KLG
AVIATION...KLG
MARINE...KLG