Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
676 FXUS64 KLIX 171706 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025 The local area will remain under the influence of a gradually retreating upper high. With the eastern extent of the high still resulting in weak subsidence aloft, expect slightly below normal rain chances with a delayed onset in convection until the mid to late afternoon. Convective coverage should generally fall into the isolated to widely scattered range today and tomorrow. The delayed convective onset and lower coverage will allow afternoon temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 90s, or roughly 3-6 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year. Dewpoints are generally forecast in the mid 70s, which currently keeps maximum heat index values in the 105-108 degree range both today and tomorrow, which is just shy of advisory criteria. Could still see some localized areas reach criteria for an hour or two, but confidence is low enough to preclude issuance of an advisory at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025 The upper ridge will continue to exert influence on the local weather through midweek with only isolated to scattered showers and storms and above normal temperatures. By later in the week a more amplified pattern will take shape as hurricane Erin recurves over the western Atlantic in response to a trough over New England. By this point, the upper high will have retreated farther west and should be centered over the four corners area, placing the local area under a general weakness in the upper pattern. The aforementioned trough will also force a weak front toward the coast. Moisture pooling ahead of the front combined with the overall weakness aloft should result in an increase in convective coverage to end the week. Rain chances could be highest on Friday and Saturday depending on where exactly the front stalls. If the front stalls north of the local area, expect convective coverage to remain generally in the scattered category. However, if the front does make it into the local area, to near the coast, convective coverage would be more in the numerous to widespread category. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. With only isolated to widely scattered showers and storms in the forecast, confidence in any storms directly affecting a specific terminal are low and have opted to keep any mention of thunder out of the TAFs at this time. Any impacts will need to be handled by short term amendments. Winds will remain less than 10 knots and will range from northwest to northeast outside of any land/sea/lake breeze activity. && .MARINE... Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025 No significant marine concerns aside from isolated to scattered showers and storms each day through midweek, becoming more numerous late in the week. Expect to see a fairly typical diurnal convective cycle with storms developing over the Gulf waters during the late night and and early morning hours, and transitioning farther inland by afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous late in the week as a weak frontal boundary stalls just north of the area. Winds will remain light at 10 knots or less with waves/seas 2 feet or less outside of thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 74 95 74 96 / 20 30 20 30 BTR 76 95 76 95 / 20 40 20 30 ASD 75 94 75 95 / 20 30 20 30 MSY 80 93 80 93 / 20 40 20 30 GPT 77 91 77 92 / 10 30 20 30 PQL 76 92 75 92 / 20 30 20 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DM LONG TERM....DM AVIATION...DM MARINE...DM