024
FXUS64 KLIX 282310 AAA
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
610 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...NEW AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 608 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- Dangerous heat remains the primary concern this afternoon and
  again Wednesday. Peak heat index values of 110 to 115 degrees
  remain possible, with limited overnight relief in the more urban
  and coastal areas.

- A considerably wetter and somewhat cooler pattern is expected
  Friday through at least Monday. Repeated thunderstorms may
  produce locally heavy rainfall, especially where convection
  trains along the front or where multiple outflow boundaries
  intersect.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Friday night)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

A strong mid-level ridge centered over the southern Plains will
remain the dominant feature through Wednesday, with the local area
positioned beneath its eastern flank. Subsidence, warm
temperatures aloft, and weak forcing will keep convection isolated
today, mainly near coastal Mississippi where a weak boundary and
localized sea-breeze convergence may provide enough lift.

Dangerous heat remains the primary concern. Afternoon temperatures
in the mid to upper 90s combined with dewpoints in the mid to
upper 70s will produce heat indices near 110 to 115 degrees in
some locations. Any isolated storm could briefly produce gusty
winds and heavy rain, but organized severe weather is not
expected.

The ridge will gradually retreat west Wednesday as an eastern
CONUS trough deepens. A weak front will approach southern
Mississippi, allowing scattered convection to develop across
coastal Mississippi and possibly the eastern Northshore. Most of
southeastern Louisiana will remain hot and mainly dry, with
another day of dangerous heat likely.

The pattern begins changing more noticeably Thursday as the front
settles toward the northern Gulf Coast and deeper moisture spreads
west. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected, especially
along the front, sea breeze, and remnant outflow boundaries. Weak
steering flow and precipitable water values near 2 inches will
support slow-moving storms with locally heavy rainfall and
isolated strong wind gusts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Monday night)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

A broad eastern CONUS trough and stalled frontal boundary will
support a wetter and somewhat cooler pattern Friday through the
weekend. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected each
day, with the greatest coverage likely Saturday and Sunday as an
upper-level disturbance moves through northwest flow.

High moisture content and slow storm motions will favor efficient
rainfall. Average totals of 2 to 3 inches are possible through
Monday, with locally higher amounts where storms repeatedly move
over the same areas. Localized street and poor-drainage flooding
will be the primary concern.

Northwest flow may also allow one or more organized convective
clusters to move south from Mississippi or Arkansas. Confidence in
exact timing is low, but any stronger complex could produce
localized damaging winds and a concentrated corridor of heavy
rainfall.

Temperatures will be lower than earlier in the week due to
increased clouds and convection, with highs generally in the upper
80s to lower 90s. Rain chances may gradually return to a more
typical diurnal pattern early next week as the front weakens.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

MCB will see a quick thunderstorm at the start of the cycle.
Otherwise, through the period this will be the exception rather
than the rule. Expect VFR conditions through the cycle again with
light southwesterly winds. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Weak high pressure over the north-central Gulf will maintain west
to southwest winds generally between 5 and 15 knots through
midweek, with brief increases to around 15 to 20 knots possible
over the eastern waters during the evening and overnight periods.
Seas should remain around 1 to 3 feet nearshore and 2 to 4 feet
offshore. Thunderstorm coverage will increase Thursday through the
weekend as a weak front settles toward the coast, with storms
capable of frequent lightning, visibility below 1 mile, abrupt
wind shifts, and gusts of 30 to 40 knots or greater.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056-071-091-093>097.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ034>037-
     039-046>048-056-071-090>097.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ057-058-
     064-070-076>087-089-090-092-098>100.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ057-
     058-064-070-076>087-089-098>100.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>085.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ068>071-
     077-083>085.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ086>088.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for
     MSZ086>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...JZ