Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
104 FXUS64 KLIX 031900 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 A drier and less unstable airmass will remain in place across the area through Saturday. This drying is related to an upper level high pressure system that will be located directly over the central Gulf coast the next couple of days. The end result will be lower precipitable water values ranging between the 25th and 50th percentile, a decent mid-level capping inversion near 700mb, and limited convective potential through the period. At most, some isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will develop during peak heating hours each afternoon, and this is reflected by PoP values of 20 to 30 percent in the forecast. Any convection will quickly dissipate in the early evening hours as temperatures cool with the loss of daytime heating. Speaking of temperatures, afternoon highs will be a few degrees warmer than average with readings generally rising into the mid 90s each day. Fortunately, the dry air aloft will mix down into the boundary layer, and this will help to keep heat index values between 100 and 105 through Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday night) Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Sunday will see the high begin to weaken and shift back to the west toward Texas. At the same time, an approaching inverted trough axis embedded with the larger easterly flow regime aloft will begin to move toward the region. The end result will be gradually increasing deep layer moisture and an increase in convective potential as we move into next week. Precipitable water values will be near average for this time of year on Sunday, and this will lead to scattered shower and thunderstorm development mainly in the afternoon hours. Temperatures will also be closer to average in the low to mid 90s, but the increase in humidity will push heat index values closer to 105 at most locations Sunday afternoon. A bit more unsettled weather pattern will then take hold on Monday and continue through Wednesday as precipitable water values increase to between 1.75 and 2 inches. These values are between the median and 75th percentile for this time of year. The inverted trough passing through the region will also provide increased upper level forcing, and this will help to promote greater convective activity through the first half of next week. PoP values of 30 to 50 percent are in place for each afternoon next week as these diurnally induced showers and storms form. Temperatures will be near average with readings in the lower 90s and heat index values of 100 to 105 each day. Overall, a fairly typical pattern for early to mid July is expected next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Mainly VFR with light NNW winds less than 10 kts prevail through the period. A couple of storms have developed NW of HDC this afternoon and could affect the site between 18-20Z. Have a TEMPO group to cover breezy winds and lower VIS due to heavy downpours. Convective coverage will be isolated this afternoon with low chances impacting many of the TAF sites. Some patchy fog may lower VIS at MCB in the pre- dawn hours Friday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Very benign conditions are expected to continue across the coastal waters through early next week. Winds will remain well below any advisory criteria and seas will generally be 2 feet or less. Thunderstorm activity will produce some locally higher winds and waves, but these impacts will be very isolated and transient. Overall, no significant concerns to maritime interests are expected through the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 73 93 72 95 / 0 20 0 20 BTR 77 92 75 95 / 10 20 0 20 ASD 75 93 74 94 / 10 10 0 20 MSY 80 91 78 93 / 10 20 0 30 GPT 75 92 75 91 / 10 0 0 30 PQL 74 93 74 93 / 10 0 0 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PG LONG TERM....PG AVIATION...PG MARINE...PG