698
FXUS64 KLIX 121109
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
609 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Upper-level ridging that has been centered over Florida is
beginning to build westward into our area, bringing warming
temperatures and generally suppressing convection. While we do
warm up a bit, both temperatures and heat indices are expected to
remain below advisory criteria for today. The main thing to watch
heading into Saturday is the drier mid-level air filtering in,
which will help increase DCAPE values into the 1000 to 1100 J/kg
range during peak heating. So while convective coverage should be
lower overall due to subsidence, any storms that do develop during
the afternoon will carry a higher potential for damaging wind
gusts driven by stronger downdrafts and localized microbursts.

Sunday is expected to follow a similar pattern with the ridge
still in place, but there is a subtle signal for an increase in
mid-level moisture between 850 and 700 mb, particularly across the
Atchafalaya Basin, where PW values could approach the
climatological 90th percentile near 2.1 inches. This may allow for
higher storm coverage in that area. Considering that and the
persistent dry layer between 500 and 700 mb, areas around and west
of Baton Rouge will be more favorable for wet microbursts on
Sunday afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, areas east of Baton Rouge
will likely stay more firmly under the ridge axis, keeping
coverage scattered at best as drier air and subsidence dominate.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

The ridge is expected to fully encompass the region by Monday,
resulting in decreased rain chances and rising temperatures. This
will likely mark the beginning of a more impactful heat stretch,
with heat headlines potentially needed as early as Monday and
continuing through midweek. Tuesday and Wednesday look
particularly hot, with heat indices trending toward advisory or
even borderline warning levels. Model guidance diverges somewhat
by Wednesday, with the ECMWF holding the ridge directly overhead
and maintaining the hot, dry pattern, while the GFS suggests an
inverted trough moving in from the east, bringing higher PW values
and increased rain chances that would help lower temperatures.
Leaned toward the ECMWF for now given the typical difficulty in
breaking down a ridge of this strength, but the GFS solution would
bring some relief if it pans out.

By Thursday, model consensus increases again, showing the ridge
starting to shift eastward and weaken. This would allow for a
return to a more typical summertime pattern with better rain
chances and slightly lower heat indices, continuing into the end
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

VFR for most of this taf cycle outside afternoon TSRA which
should be temporary.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

High pressure will remain in place over the local waters through
much of the forecast period, resulting in generally light and
variable winds and overall favorable marine conditions. However,
isolated diurnally driven convection remains possible,
particularly during the late night and early morning hours.
Mariners should be prepared for brief periods of locally higher
winds and seas in and around any storm that develops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  72  93  72 /  50  10  50  10
BTR  93  74  92  75 /  50  10  70  10
ASD  93  74  93  74 /  50  10  50  10
MSY  94  78  92  78 /  50  10  70  10
GPT  92  76  92  76 /  40  10  40  10
PQL  93  74  93  73 /  40  10  40  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...JZ