Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
147 FXUS64 KLIX 231848 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 148 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1238 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 - Well above average high temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s will occur next week. Heat index values will climb into the upper 90s. - The threat for showers and strong thunderstorms will increase going into the weekend and next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Saturday night) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 A highly difluent upper level flow regime will develop across the Lower Mississippi River valley tomorrow and remain in place through Saturday. A jet streak over the Southern Plains will also develop, and this will will be the source region for any convective complexes that try to move down from the Arklatex region into our forecast area. A review of the latest convectively aided models shows some modest agreement that the first of these mesoscale convective complexes will slide into the area late Friday night into Saturday morning. There is still disagreement on the strength of these systems as they follow the theta e axis down into our area, but if there is a strong enough cold pool that forms with the MCS, it could easily sweep completely through the area and offshore. At this time, the official forecast does not indicate this occurring, but confidence is high enough to warrant a mention of this possibility here. The main threats from this first MCS will be gusty winds that could exceed severe limits at times. Before the MCS moves through, very warm and unstable conditions will be in place tomorrow afternoon. Highs will easily climb into the low to mid 80s and SBCAPE will climb to 1000 to 1500 J/KG. There will be little convective inhibition in place as mid-level lapse rates steepen, so scattered showers and storms can be expected by the afternoon hours. In the wake of the MCS that moves through the area late Friday night and early Saturday morning, a brief period of slightly more stable air associated with the cold pool and a passing meso-high will keep convective activity at a minimum through early Saturday afternoon. However, conditions will once again turn more unstable by the late afternoon hours as temperatures warm into the mid to upper 80s and SBCAPE surges to around 2000 J/KG. This will allow for additional scattered shower and thunderstorm activity to fire up just before sunset on Saturday. The models are also indicating that another mesoscale convective complex will once again fire up in the Arklatex region Saturday evening and this could impact the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning with another round of gusty winds, lightning, and heavier rainfall. The one good thing about these systems is that they will help to ease some of our drought conditions. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 The pattern in the long term period will remain largely the same with a favorable source region for additional convective complexes remaining over the Arklatex and Tennessee Valley regions. The theta e axis will also remain parked over the region, and these convective complexes will follow that higher moisture axis south and southeastward toward the Gulf coast each day. There is a large degree of uncertainty on exactly where and when these convective complexes will form, but at least a 20 to 30 percent chance of rain will exist throughout the long term period. As we move into next week and have the convectively aided model guidance to use, our forecast timing and confidence on impacts will increase. The one big thing to discuss beyond the threat of convective development each day will the extremely warm temperatures that set up over the area. Temperature spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles in the NBM is remarkably low at 5 degrees or less from Sunday through Wednesday, and this leads to greater confidence that temperatures will climb into the upper 80s and even the low 90s at times, especially during the workweek. With ample humidity in place, heat index values will surge into the mid to upper 90s early next week. These are very warm temperatures for late April and there will be an increased risk of heat illnesses impacting more vulnerable populations like the unhoused with this early season heatwave. This is supported by a 70 to 90 percent chance of seeing moderate HeatRisk and a 20 to 30 percent chance of seeing major HeatRisk conditions impacting the area early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 Largely VFR conditions will be the rule at most of the terminals through Friday afternoon. However, a period of low stratus and fog will develop around daybreak tomorrow as a weak inversion forms at our more inland terminals of BTR and MCB. MCB will be most impacted with a period of IFR ceilings and visibility restrictions expected between 10z and 14z. Visibilities and ceilings may even fall to LIFR restrictions at times. At BTR, the inversion will be weaker and only low stratus ranging from 800 to 1000 feet is expected to develop between 11z and 13z. Some MVFR ceilings will also form at HDC in this time frame with ceilings falling as low as 1000 feet at times. Any fog and stratus will quickly clear after 14z as daytime heating and boundary layer mixing increases. && .MARINE... Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 A very early Summer like weather set up will keep a persistent south- southeast flow of 10 to 15 knots in place through the middle of next week. Seas will also remain well below any hazardous limits at 1 to 3 feet through the period. The main concern will be a series of thunderstorm complexes that are expected to slide down from the northwest and move into the waters starting Saturday and then potentially lasting through the middle of next week. If a thunderstorm complex does move into the waters, a period of stronger winds, heavy rainfall, and lightning will accompany the storms. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PG LONG TERM....PG AVIATION...PG MARINE...PG