911
FXUS64 KLIX 041146
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
646 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Convection once again developed along a LL confluent
zone that was situated from northwest to southeast practically
bisecting the CWA. Convection has now dissipated but we will likely
see storms start to erupt once again over the Gulf overnight.

For Independence Day things likely will be quite similar to
yesterday. The ridge that has been just off to the west will
continue to shift east and east-northeast. This would suggest
stronger suppression and warmer mid lvl temps but the center of the
ridge will be well off to the north moving through the Mid MS Valley
and towards the TN Valley. At the same time a slowly deepening mid
lvl low will begin to take shape over the northeastern Gulf. This
will begin to place the CWA under northerly and then weak
northeasterly flow. There will still be a LL confluent zone from
southwest MS south-southeast to south of Grand Isle which will
coexist with a near 2" tongue of PWs. This would likely lead to at
least isolated storms this afternoon, most likely from west of a
line from near Natchez to Hammond and New Orleans. East and
northeast there is an area of much drier air that will keep
convection from developing. Since convection will likely be more
isolated the cloud cover may not be as extensive as yesterday and
with h925 temps climbing to 26C highs should be able to climb into
the mid 90s over a good chunk of the area. Combine that with the
high humidity levels in the BL and heat index readings from the
upper 90s to mid 100s will occur over the entire area. With that
please make sure to hydrate hydrate hydrate today if you are
celebrating.

Saturday likely will be hot, humid, with isolated storms as well.
There are actually a few things that would suggest convection would
have an easier time to develop. The mid lvl low over the Gulf will
be deeper and already begin to slide west while the ridge will still
be centered well off to the north. Mid lvl hghts and temps could be
a touch lower. The biggest negative with respect to convection will
be moisture. We appear to be recycling drier continental air from
the northeast and east and this will be over the entire area much of
the day Saturday with PWs likely ranging 1.3-1.7" which is
relatively low for this time of the year. Can`t completely rule out
convection given some of the other favorable ingredients but
convection will be difficult. As for highs they will be similar if
not a degree warmer and with that so will the heat indices. The heat
index looks like it should still be just below criteria so we should
remain out of heat advisories. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Heading into the extended portion of the forecast we will see
increasing rain chances and continued warm and humid conditions.
Medium range models in decent agreement with the forecast and no
major adjustments made from the NBM.

Pattern quickly begins to shift to something a little more similar
to what we saw a few weeks ago. The ridge to our north completely
breaks down starting Saturday night with one ridge building west of
the area over the US/Mexico border near AZ/NM and then another ridge
slowly taking shape over the western Atlantic. Sunday and Monday the
biggest impact will be the low slowly moving east across the Gulf.
This will help bring moisture back into the area and with that
convection will increase across the area with near numerous storms
across the Gulf overnight. After that we sort of move under the
weakness between the two ridges which should allow for scattered
storms each afternoon over the land with storms moving over the
water overnight. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

VFR conditions continue with mainly high overcast across forecast
terminals. With the amount of clouds across the area this morning,
don`t really expect much convection prior to midday. Only
mentioned PROB30 for TSRA this afternoon for KBTR, KHUM, KMSY and
KNEW, as remaining terminals may not have sufficient instability
to justify mention of storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Outside of convection the marine conditions are quite
benign. Broad high pressure is still dominating the Gulf and is
centered to the south. This is leading to generally light offshore
flow which will remian in place through Saturday before becoming a
little more chaotic and dominated by diurnal fluctuations heading
into next week. Convection will be a little more sparse this morning
and through Saturday but could increase and increase significantly
Sunday morning with numerous storms over the coastal waters
overnight each night through much of next week. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  93  71  94  72 /  30   0  20  10
BTR  93  74  96  75 /  40  20  20  10
ASD  94  72  94  72 /  20  10  30  20
MSY  94  79  95  79 /  40  10  40  20
GPT  95  74  93  74 /  10   0  40  30
PQL  95  72  94  72 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...CAB