230
FXUS64 KLIX 122024
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
324 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Latest upper level analysis shows a ridge centerd over the Gulf,
another one near southern California and a trough across the north-
central US. The CWA is on the northwestern periperhy of the ridge, a
region of some subisdence but not a lot and certainly not enough to
inhibit summertime convection. As such, scattered showers and storms
have developed and will persist through the afternoon hours before
dissipating with daytime heating. Radar presentation over the last
few hours reflects what to expect this time of year with pop up
thunderstorms that weaken rather quickly once reaching mature stage.
Only the few most intense storms will present any apprecible threat
of damaging winds and frequent lightning.

A weak shortwave within the base of the trough will slightly weaken
the upper ridge nearby. This will allow for increased coverage of
storms on Sunday with those rain chances rising inot the 60 to 80%
range for western portoins of the CWA.

MEFFER
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

The upper trough looks to progress east and lift northward starting
next week. This will allow the ridge nearby to spread back north
across the northern Gulf Coast. That will put us back into less
daytime convection and warmer temps. With forecast highs solidly in
the mid 90s Monday and Tuesday along with dewpoints in the mid to
upper 70s, it`s pretty much a given that a heat advisory will be
needed for those 2 days. It`s possible that this will carry over
into Wednesday but increasing rainfall coverage as we transition
from heat to wet.

Models show that the increasing mid week convective coverage will be
coming from the east as an inverted trough. It looks like quite deep
tropical moisture will a large envelope of 2.5"+ PW which is well
above the 90th percentile and actually right near peak values for
this time of year. Way to soon to determine if it`ll attain tropical
characteristics. Regardless, the local area would be in a fairly wet
pattern for a few to several days. Will need to monitor this one.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

VFR outside TSRA through this cycle. Main impacts will be short term
gusty winds and rainfall. TSRA will dissipate with loss of daytime
heating and then return with possibly greater coverage tomorrow. Did
add some PROB30 groups for those terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Quiet marine conditions will continue through the next few days as
high pressure remains overhead or at least nearby. Winds generally
onshore at 10 knots or less with seas under 2 feet. The only
exception would be brief gale force wind gusts from isolated storms.
A broad area of low pressure moving into the northeaster Gulf middle
of next week my induce offshore flow in coastal waters east of the
Mouth of the Mississippi River.


MEFFER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  93  72  94 /  20  30   0  40
BTR  74  92  74  93 /  10  60   0  50
ASD  73  93  73  94 /  10  40   0  40
MSY  77  93  78  94 /  10  60   0  60
GPT  76  92  76  94 /  10  40  10  40
PQL  73  93  73  95 /  10  30  10  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME