Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
277 FXUS64 KLIX 242015 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 315 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 Upper ridging centered from Texas to Nebraska this afternoon, with a trough extending from Montana to near Los Angeles. At the surface, high pressure extended from Lake Michigan to the eastern Gulf. A stationary front was near Interstate 20 with a line of thunderstorms to the north of that front across the northern half of Mississippi into northeast Louisiana. Locally, isolated showers and storms were providing brief cooling in a few areas. Most areas were seeing temperatures in the mid and upper 80s, but a few locations will top out in the lower 90s. Upper ridging will gradually shift eastward and be centered over the Gulf on Monday morning. The frontal boundary to our north isn`t likely to make much, if any, further southward progress over the next 36 hours. The isolated convection currently over and around the local area should dissipate around sunset. However, there is a non-zero threat that the storms over northeast Louisiana could conceivably reach the local area if they become cold pool dominated as noted by a few mesoscale model solutions. That`s not currently accounted for in the forecast, but we`ll continue to monitor. Sunday is likely to look a lot like today weather-wise, including temperatures, with not much more than isolated to widely scattered storm coverage and high temperatures within a few degrees of 90. Any storms that do develop, will likely dissipate around sunset. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday night) Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 As we progress into the early part of the week, ridging becomes suppressed further south over the Gulf. Moisture levels increase across the area with precipitable water values around 1.7 to 1.9 inches Monday through Wednesday, then slightly drier Thursday and Friday. Shortwaves moving across the middle Mississippi River Valley will combine with the moist airmass and an approaching frontal boundary to trigger periods of showers and storms across the area. Most of the precipitation is expected to occur during the diurnally favored hours from late morning into early evening, with the highest probabilities over northern portions of the area. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with a few storms, and some storms could become strong, but higher probabilities of severe storms or excessive rainfall aren`t currently expected. It currently appears that the frontal boundary may move into the northern Gulf at the end of the week, similar to the ECMWF solution, potentially bringing cooler and drier (comparatively, for late May/early June) weather next weekend. Overall, high temperatures are going to be driven by the timing of convective development on a particular day. There are no strong targets of opportunity, so accepted the NBM temperature values. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 Generally VFR conditions at forecast issuance time. Isolated TSRA were in the vicinity of KMSY/KNEW/KASD/KGPT. Potential for direct impacts, which would be MVFR ceilings, IFR or lower visibilities and potential for rather gusty winds. Most TSRA should dissipate around 00z. Could see some flight restrictions around sunrise Sunday, but don`t expect them to be widespread. Brief MVFR ceilings Sunday morning as cumulus field develops, but most convection should hold off until beyond 18z Sunday. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 Light gradient winds will generally rule most of the forecast period the main concern during the forecast period will be thunderstorm development, producing localized higher winds and seas. Threats will be greater over the protected waters (lakes and sounds), especially from Monday onward. Do not expect any prolonged periods of winds above 15 knots. The only other thing of mention is that we are beginning to get more and more into the Summer setup so we will see that nocturnal jet begin to set up most nights east of the MS delta. The biggest issue is that small area around Breton and Chandeluer Sounds and south of MS Sound will likely see a bump in winds of 3-5 kts compared to much of the coastal waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 71 91 72 90 / 20 30 10 50 BTR 74 92 75 92 / 10 30 0 40 ASD 73 91 73 90 / 10 20 0 20 MSY 76 91 77 92 / 10 20 0 20 GPT 75 88 75 87 / 10 10 10 20 PQL 72 89 72 89 / 10 10 0 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW