980
FXUS64 KLIX 062126
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
426 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 425 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Rainy period is just getting started for the local area as scattered
strong to severe storms (multiple large hail reports over the last
couple hours) track across the CWA. The current severe storm and
developing areal showers are feeding off moisture rich warm sector
air south of a lifting warm front. Loss of daytime heating should
cause a lull in convective activity through the course of the
evening.

From a more regional perspective, a broken line of strong to severe
thunderstorms is tracking east from Texas into Louisiana. The
eastern side of an upper low pushes east into Missouri and Arkansas.
What that does is drive a surface trough to southern LA and MS. It`s
west to east orientation will be perpendicular to southerly low
level flow. That, combined with 1.7 to 2 inch PW`s will create a
setup conducive for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. So no
appreciable changes to previous forecasts which calls for a few to
several inches of rain across the local forecast area. Precise
location of highest rainfall amounts continues to be challenging but
generally along/south of I-10 in LA appears to be the most likely
area for this heavier rain from 06z to 18z Wed. The line of
showers/storms continues south to the LA coast for the remainder of
the day.

MEFFER
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 425 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Models shows a couple more waves of heavier rainfall moving along
the Gulf Coast through portions of the CWA Thu-Fri as the upper low
to the north slowly moves eastward. Will there be any improvement
next weekend? Depends on your definition of improvement. While heavy
rain potential appears to be lower, rain chances don`t fall off too
much with areal coverage pretty decent. The stubborn upper low just
doesn`t have anything to kick it out, so it just drifts south
towards the CWA. The good news is we won`t be setting any record
high temps anytime soon.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 425 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Main impacts in the short term will be current showers and
thunderstorms mainly located between KBTR and KMSY. Hail has been
reported with that main storm but the probability of it occuring at
any terminal is extremely low. KHDC stands the best chance to see
heavy rain and lightning now through 00Z. Then, the remainder of the
night will be a mix of MVFR LIFR ceilings along with the potential
for widespread heavy rainfall. Visibilities could drop to less than
1SM at times. Expect little improvement in overall impacts to be
slow through Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 425 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Easterly winds remain moderately strong, right at the cusp of Small
Craft Advisory criteria. Should begin seeing a gradual relaxing of
the winds overnight as warm front that lifted north today is pushed
back south the coast. Stalled front along the coastal waters the
remainder of the week should lend to winds/seas on the lighter side.
Will see wind directions shifting from onshore to offshore depending
on the position of the frontal boundary in relation to the marine
zones.

MEFFER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  81  64  80 /  80  80  60  80
BTR  68  81  66  80 /  80  70  70  90
ASD  68  81  65  80 /  80  80  70  90
MSY  73  81  69  81 /  70  80  80  90
GPT  70  79  67  79 /  70  80  70  90
PQL  68  82  65  81 /  70  70  60  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-
     056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ550-570.

MS...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ570.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME