Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
148 FXUS64 KLIX 102339 AAA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 639 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 ...NEW AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Locally our PW has rebounded to just over 2", as expected. We are seeing some convection building just onshore especially in Terrebonne and Lafourche parishes. As the day progresses, we expect to see a light increase in PW and a bit of upper level low pressure weakness build into the area. Winds in the lower levels are generally easterly with predominantly southerly winds in the mid/upper levels. All this, combined with daytime heating, pushes PoPs into the 50% range in the southern half of the CWA. So, we can expect the convection to continue building to the south through this evening. In the northern half of the CWA we are looking at 30% PoPs which will give us a more "normal" summertime feel. In either case, the high temps this afternoon will run around 90-93 range, on the lower end if you have clouds and rain and upper side with more sun. Tomorrow, we expect a slight increase in PoPs and a more southeasterly low level wind bringing higher rain chances (PoPs 50- 70%) across the area. Temps will remain in the low 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Northerly low dips down and tropical low pressure pushes out of the Caribbean and into the north central Gulf. With this combination of features, rain chances build to 70-80% on Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure pushes in beginning Thursday and into the weekend bringing us back to our typical summertime weather pattern, with 30- 50% PoPs daytime highs pushing toward the mid-90s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Outside of some isolated showers and maybe a storm or two for ASD and HDC, VFR conditions should continue overnight tonight and into Monday. By afternoon showers and thunderstorms will again start to develop. Coverage (as we have seen today) is still in question, so mostly kept PROBs going through the afternoon (and early evening for MSY). If coverage does appear to increase on Monday, this may be nudged a bit to represent that. Otherwise, outside of brief VIS/CIG reductions within convection VFR should prevail with generally light winds below 10kts. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Winds and waves will remain mostly calm through the forecast period, with winds staying below 15kts each day. The only marine concerns through the forecast period are convection driven winds and waves that will be locally higher around any thunderstorms that develop. The early morning hours have the best chances of marine convection each day with some storms on the stronger side bringing higher winds and seas. Convective coverage is expected to increase through Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 73 91 73 88 / 10 50 20 80 BTR 75 92 75 90 / 20 70 20 80 ASD 74 90 73 88 / 30 70 40 80 MSY 80 91 79 89 / 30 70 30 80 GPT 75 89 76 87 / 40 70 50 80 PQL 74 89 74 88 / 30 70 60 80 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM....DS AVIATION...RDF MARINE...DS