Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
451 FXUS64 KLIX 210448 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1148 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Now through Saturday) Issued at 937 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 The region remains under northerly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of a very strong H5 ridge over the Rockies. The east coast trough has allowed for a surface front/trof to move southward over the Tennessee Valley. This feature will continue to move southward toward our region during the day Thursday and then stall right along the coast on Friday as the orientation of the front becomes a bit more parallel with the upper flow pattern. This should continue to enhance convection potential during max heating. PWs are going to be right at 2" and with the likely slower storm motion it`s possible that minor hydro concerns arise, especially for locations that receive multiple storms over a short period of time. With the increasing rain potential through Saturday, temperatures should climb to around average for mid to late August. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 937 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 Going into Sunday the pattern doesn`t really change from the end of the short term period. An H5 weakness will reside overhead and the surface trof will remain in place right along the coast and again will help enhance the potential for afternoon and early evening convection. Going into the new workweek eyes point upstream as a upper impulse slides southeast around the ridge over the Rockies. At the surface, a frontal boundary will move southward with the parent shortwave. A broad larger scale trough will then dig across the southeast and east. With heights lowering by midweek next week and drier conditions with perhaps weak CAA behind a front it may start to feel more tolerable going into the last weekend of August. Until then rain chances will continue up until passage of the front. Globals are in agreement of the overall pattern. However, at this juncture timing of these features is a bit questionable. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 751 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 Convection has mostly decreased across the region for the evening. This will allow for VFR conditions through the overnight. On Thursday convection will again be possible during the afternoon and evening. Coverage looks to be a bit higher than today. MVFR or IFR conditions will be possible if a storm manages to move over a terminal. Surface winds look to remain light and variable outside of convection. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 937 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 Convection will continue to be a concern, especially during the overnight and into the morning hours each day through the upcoming weekend. Locally higher winds and seas can be expected in and around storms. Otherwise, benign marine conditions anticipated with winds less than 10kts and seas at or less than 2 feet. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 95 73 92 72 / 40 20 70 40 BTR 96 74 94 74 / 20 20 80 40 ASD 94 74 93 72 / 30 10 60 40 MSY 95 79 95 78 / 30 10 60 30 GPT 93 76 93 74 / 30 10 60 40 PQL 94 74 93 73 / 30 10 50 40 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RDF