Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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916
FGUS63 KKRF 261835
ESPLDT
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1038 PM CST MON NOV 25 2024
********************************************************
********* THESE NUMBERS ARE PRODUCED WITH HEFS *********
********************************************************
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT ESP (CS), HEFS, AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR
NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD
STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
HEFS VALUES INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE ESP PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR HEFS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR
HEFS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS
LOWER THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 11/30/2024 - 02/28/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR | HEFS CS HS |HEFS CS HS |HEFS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:BAD R AT MIDLAND SD
MIDS2 21.0 24.0 25.0 | <5 7 14 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:BAD R AT FT PIERRE SD 3S
FTPS2 21.0 25.0 27.0 | 6 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:WHITE R AT KADOKA SD 6S
KDKS2 15.0 16.0 19.0 | 5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:WHITE R AT WHITE RIVER SD 11N
WHRS2 14.0 15.0 17.0 | 5 5 8 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5
:WHITE R AT OACOMA SD 9SW
OACS2 15.0 20.0 25.0 | 5 7 15 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:NIOBRARA R AT SPARKS NE 7SW
SPKN1 6.0 10.0 12.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:NIOBRARA R AT VERDEL NE 6S
VRDN1 8.0 9.5 13.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:PONCA CR AT VERDEL NE
VERN1 13.5 15.0 17.0 | 5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
HEFS = HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICE SIMULATION (CURRENT)
CS = CONDITIONAL ESP SIMULATION (CURRENT)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--HEFS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 1130 Z DH12 /DC2411260438/DVD90/HGVFPXT/HGVFPX9/HGVFPXH
.B1 /HGVFPX5/HGVFPXG/HGVFPX1/HGVFPXF
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 11/30/2024 - 02/28/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:BAD R
MIDS2 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 5.0/ 4.9/ 12.7/ 16.9/
FTPS2 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 4.8/ 3.9/ 10.2/ 22.6/
:WHITE R
KDKS2 4.1/ 4.2/ 4.5/ 6.4/ 5.8/ 7.5/ 13.9/
WHRS2 3.5/ 3.5/ 4.1/ 6.0/ 5.9/ 9.5/ 13.3/
OACS2 7.9/ 8.0/ 8.4/ 9.6/ 9.5/ 12.9/ 15.6/
:NIOBRARA R
SPKN1 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/
VRDN1 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 5.3/
:PONCA CR
VERN1 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 7.3/ 7.2/ 8.0/ 12.6/
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--HEFS NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 1130 Z DH12 /DC2411260438/DVD90/HGVFPNT/HGVFPN9/HGVFPNH
.B1 /HGVFPN5/HGVFPNG/HGVFPN1/HGVFPNF
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 11/30/2024 - 02/28/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:BAD R
MIDS2 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/
FTPS2 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/
:WHITE R
KDKS2 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/
WHRS2 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/
OACS2 7.9/ 7.8/ 7.8/ 7.8/ 7.8/ 7.8/ 7.8/
:NIOBRARA R
SPKN1 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/
VRDN1 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.3/
:PONCA CR
VERN1 6.3/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.2/
.END
$$