964
FXUS64 KLCH 140616
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
116 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory has been issued from 11 AM to 7 PM Friday for
  parishes along the Atchafalaya River.

- An upper level ridge will act as the main weather system as it
  strengthens over the region through the weekend into early next
  week. Highs just shy of 100F are likely for much of the region
  from today through the first of next week.

- This will be the first instance of consecutive 100F+ days so far
  this year, and so heat risk levels will increase markedly from
  moderate to major levels this weekend. Heat Risk will near
  Extreme early next week. Heat Safety should be observed and
  precautions should begin now.

- With the lack of significant widespread rainfall, antecedent
  conditions will also become increasingly drier.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Current upper patterns don`t appear very different from those
analyzed 24 hours ago. If anything, the trofing previously
observed down the spine of California has retrograded westward
slightly with little change in amplitude. Upper ridging over our
region is set to expand outward and strengthen from today to the
start of next work week. And so, this will be the pattern over
the coming days: troughiness and active weather well to the west
and expansive blocking high to the east.

Looking to high temps from Thursday, areas overachieved very
slightly from forecast. This gives further confidence that highs
today and beyond will see a jump in each day`s highest reading as
upper high strengthens and then shifts its center overtop the
northwest Gulf from today to Monday. Most of the area will see
upper 90s today with the exception being southeast Texas and
southwest Louisiana. As mentioned in last night`s AFD, tropical
moisture will move into these areas early today. Typically at
least scattered showers would result, but high pressure will halt
showers at the coastline. Only low clouds will give nod to this
airmass, and so highs should be held in check for the Golden
Triangle to extreme southwest LA.

Heat Risk will increase from today to early next week with much of
the region feeling moderate (level 2 of 4) to major (level 3 of 4)
impacts from the prolonged heat Saturday and Sunday. By Monday and
Tuesday, some areas will start to near the Extreme level (4 of 4)
of impact from heat. Meaning anyone without access to adequate
cooling systems allowing the body to recover will face increased
and severe heat stress over these days. It is important to
appropriately hydrate, limit time outdoors, monitor those who are
vulnerable and check on those who may see these increased heat
stress impacts! Don`t forget, dog paws can get burned on pavement
 and the interior of cars can and will respond rapidly to these
temperatures.

A Heat Advisory has been issued for parishes along the Atchafalaya
River from 11 AM to 7 PM today. Further heat product issuances
will likely be needed over the coming days.

11/Calhoun

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Some low clouds have started sneaking back into the BPT
observation this evening. This is in response to a weak inverted
trof moving up the Texas coastline, bringing with it a humid,
tropical airmass. As is typical with an airmass like this,
scattered showers will accompany its northward march up the
west Gulf. Any scattered showers which develop over this area will
make an attempt to move inland near BPT and LCH around 12 to 14Z.
However, after 12Z, the upper high already dominating the region
is expected to strengthen notably after sunrise. Its influence is
expected to halt all rainfall at the coastline. An isolated
shower may make it so far north as BPT, but the chance of this is
low enough it`s not mentioned in TAFs.

More likely, expect low MVFR CIGs at the southwest terminals
today, with VFR conditions anticipated elsewhere.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Surface high pressure ridge extending west from the northeast Gulf
will keep a southerly fetch in place over the period. Winds will
prevail below 10 knots, which also keeps seas low.

A slug of tropical moisture moving up the Texas coastline this
morning is expected to spread scattered showers into western
waters prior to sunrise. High pressure over the region will
strengthen rapidly after sunrise, dissipating any lingering
rainfall quickly into the morning. No rain chances anticipated
through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

High pressure will strengthen over the region from today through
the first of next week. This feature will limit rainfall area-
wide and will drive temperatures into the upper 90s to lower 100s
over the coming days. The combination will further exacerbate the
dry antecedent conditions.

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ029-033-044-045-055-153-154-253-254.

TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11
AVIATION...11