893
FXUS64 KLCH 110901
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
401 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather with moderating temperatures for the first part of
  the week.

- The next chance for showers and thunderstorms, albeit small,
  is for Wednesday night.

- A stronger system to end the week with potential for windy
  conditions on Friday and a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms
  late Friday into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Winds will become more southerly today along with warming
temperatures.

A disturbance will move north of the area Wednesday and Wednesday
night causing southerly winds to increase a bit. In addition some
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across mainly the
northern portions of the forecast area as moisture overall looks
to be limited.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Still not much change to the previous thinking with the Friday
system as a potent low pressure system develops in the plains on
Friday. Southerly winds will increase into advisory criteria for
much of the area ahead of the approaching system. POPS remain on
the lower end for Friday as the cap remains uncertain in
conjunction with the best shear.

As the front passes through on Saturday this will be the best
chance for showers and thunderstorms, however the stronger shear
will be shifting off to the east, can`t rule out some severe
thunderstorms across the eastern half of the area with the area
remaining in the Slight Risk area in the Day 5 outlook.

For early next week conditions look to be dry with seasonable
temperatures.


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025

Mostly VFR conditions are anticipated through the period, however
patchy thin BR is possible along I-10. Light NW winds will become
VRB tonight then SW Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Surface high will move off to the east and this will allow a
light to modest onshore flow to develop.

The onshore flow will persist for the remainder of the week. Some
slightly stronger south winds on Wednesday will bring in warmer
and moist air that when moving over the cooler shelf waters will
bring a potential for sea fog along the coast.

A low pressure system over the Southern Plains will develop on
Friday and strengthen. Gradient winds will increase as a result
with building seas that a small craft advisory will likely be
needed.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  50  77  59 /   0   0   0  20
LCH  73  56  74  62 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  75  53  76  62 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  75  57  78  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...05