166
FXUS64 KLCH 141749
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
Issued by National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1249 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure building into the region will yield a prolonged
  period of dry and impactful hot weather.

- A series of passing waves will produce elevated southerly winds
  today. Wind speeds will be close to Advisory but should remain
  below criteria.

- Most rivers and bayous have crested from previous runoff. Flood
  conditions and elevated hydro flows are expected to continue.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

A steady rise in temperatures can be expected starting today and
over the remainder of the short term period. Modest southerly flow
is driving Gulf moisture back into the region making for
oppressive overnight mugginess and very hot-feeling daytime temps.
High temps should top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s, but heat
indices in the 90s to near 100 are expected today, Thursday and
Friday.

High pressure ridging into the region will keep the forecast hot
and without precipitation chances. A tightening pressure gradient
between high to the southeast and shortwave moving through Texas
will result in breezy southerly winds today. Speeds should remain
below Wind Advisory conditions, so the product was not issued with
this forecast package.

11

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

No major departures from the previous forecast thinking. High
pressure riding remains in majority control over the longterm
period. While a series of trofs move across the central US, high
pressure blocks any appreciable lift from entering the CWA. There
could be some periods of cloudy skies, but ultimately no rain
chances are expected.

Very hot weather is the greater concern as the oppressive heat
wave continues for several more days. Temperatures in the upper
80s to lower 90s will prevail each day. Elevated humidity will
drive daily heat indices into the upper 90s to lower 100s each day
as well. While we won`t be hitting traditional heat advisory
criteria, a Heat Risk of moderate to major impact can be expected
due to longevity of heat, departure from normal this time of year
and humidity.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon and evening with
an MVFR ceiling expected to develop after midnight through early
Thursday morning. Some guidance is indicating the potential for
some light fog development after 09Z, but expecting winds to stay
elevated enough to prevent this at most terminals. If fog occurs
anywhere, it`s most likely at AEX where winds may drop to 6-8
knots.

Ongoing breezy conditions will weaken to around 10 knots after
sunset this evening where they will remain through Thursday
morning.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

A weak shortwave moving near the region will tighten the gradient
against high pressure in the north Gulf, resulting in breezy
onshore flow around 20 knots gusting to 30 knots through this
afternoon. Another round of elevated winds are expected during the
day Thursday. Long southerly fetch in the west Gulf will keep
elevated seas in the forecast through Thursday as well. Thus,
Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to continue.
Otherwise, ridging remains in control and no rain is expected
through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  92  72  91 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  72  87  74  87 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  72  89  74  88 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  73  89  74  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ450-452-455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...66