Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
701 FXUS64 KLCH 132348 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 648 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A tropical wave over the northern gulf will keep precip chances above climatological normals today and tomorrow. - A subtropical ridge will build across the Gulf toward the end of the week, dropping precip chances and allowing for higher temps. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Currently we have widely isolated convection that has started to bubble up, with an expected increase in this activity likely through the rest of the afternoon to early evening hours. While activity will taper through the evening, there could still be a few isolated storms lingering late tonight. A weak tropical wave (along with high PWATs) will assist in seeing elevated rain chances both today and tomorrow. Friday and into the weekend, a subtropical ridge will continue to move / expand westward into the Gulf along with another upper ridge over the Desert SW drifting eastward into the Southern Plains. Specifically on Friday, the subtropical ridge will be centered in the eastern Gulf, where it will pull moisture up from a disturbance in the Bay of Campeche. This will allow for yet another day of elevated rain chances. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 This weekend and into the next work week, we will see a return to a "regular" summertime for this area. The subtropical ridge will continue to extend westward into the central and westward Gulf as another ridge out west will move into the Southern Plains, then up into the Central Plains. PoPs will not be completely shut out, however they will be limited thanks to that. Unfortunately with the drop in PoPs comes the toasty temps by a few degrees. Temperatures will be above climo norms for the duration of the long term, and along with that, dewpoints will be in the 70s. It will be possible to get heat indices above the triple digits, however it appears at this moment that we will be right below the criteria for heat hazards. Nevertheless, all are urged to be cautious during prolonged periods outside. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 A few scattered diurnally driven storms continue to meander over the region. These will come to a close after sundown. Expect much of the same on Thursday with primarily southwest winds and isolated showers and thunderstorms during daytime hours. Winds should mix similar to today resulting in occasionally gusty gradient type winds. This mixed environment will also keep CIGs in the MVFR range. 11/Calhoun && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 74 93 74 95 / 30 70 10 50 LCH 78 92 78 92 / 40 70 20 60 LFT 77 92 77 91 / 30 60 10 60 BPT 77 92 77 92 / 30 60 20 50 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...11