Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
762 FXUS64 KLCH 300525 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1225 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Flow around an upper level high will allow for drier air in the mid levels to help keep showers and thunderstorms today isolated. - As the upper level high moves to the north, a tropical wave will move across the region on Monday and Tuesday with elevated rain chances and some potential for torrential downpours. - A broad weakness in the mid levels will remain over the area through the week with a series of inverted troughs and high moisture keeping a decent chance for daily scattered showers and thunderstorms with normal summertime heat. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026 Weather analysis shows a broad upper level ridge stretched from the southwest US to the Tennessee Valley helping to provide subsidence aloft with a dry northeast flow. Meanwhile, an inverted trough feature in the northeast Gulf with a weak surface low about a 100 miles south of the Mississippi coast along with some deeper tropical like moisture that has been designated by NHC as AL97, is moving slowly to the west. Over the next few days, the upper level ridge will shift to the north and weaken. The inverted trough/tropical wave will move westward along the northern Gulf coast with the associated surface low near or inland of the coast. Consensus of guidance keeps wherever the surface low moves, weak with a better representation of this feature at 70H and 50H. Currently, NHC has a 20 percent chance that this system AL97 will develop into tropical cyclone. For today, with the northeast flow keeping that dry subsident flow over the forecast area, shower activity should continue to be isolated in nature and mainly along the sea breeze boundary in the late afternoon. On Monday, the inverted trough/tropical wave is expected to slip underneath the upper level ridge and move into the forecast area. The deeper moisture is expected to arrive in the afternoon with PWAT values in the 2.25 to 2.50 inch range with mean layer relative humidity from 100H-50H above 80 percent, with the higher values near the coast closer to the upper level or surface low wave. Daytime heating at that time along with an enhanced sea breeze as flow begins to become more from the southeast will allow for widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop by mid to late afternoon. With the high moisture values and tropical like air mass with warm cloud layers around 15k feet, some tropical downpours with high rain rates in a short period will be possible, especially closer to the apex of the wave, which will likely be along and south of the I-10 corridor and WPC has a majority of the area outlined in a Marginal (level 1 out of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall. On Tuesday, the inverted trough/tropical wave feature will move inland and be somewhere between southeast Texas and western Louisiana. With a predominate southeast flow in the low levels keeping high moisture values in place, widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible with daytime heating and the sea breeze. For the remainder of the week, a broad weakness is expected to be located over the region and this will a series of inverted troughs to move across and good Gulf moisture to remain in place. Therefore, a daily chance for mainly scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue along with normal summertime heat. 07/Rua && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026 Stable conditions are expected through the night with light winds and mainly clear skies. Some shallow ground fog will be possible and will mention some MVFR conditions because of this, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. Sunday looks like a repeat of recent days with some isolated pop up showers along the seabreeze with max heating. Will place VCSH at southern terminals to account for this. Otherwise, VFR away from the convection. 07/Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026 Light and variable winds with low seas are expected today with just isolated showers and thunderstorms as weak high pressure will be in place. A tropical wave will move across the coastal waters on Monday and Tuesday. Winds will become more southerly with modest gusts as the wave moves across along with more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026 Some drier air, especially above the surface will persist today keeping rain chances isolated and minimum afternoon relative humidity values at modest levels between 40 and 50 percent. A tropical wave will move across the region on Monday and Tuesday helping to increase moisture. Minimum afternoon relative humidity will range between 50 and 70 percent with showers and thunderstorms becoming more widespread. There is the potential for some torrential downpours, mainly south of the I-10 corridor, providing some much needed rainfall as KBDI values are in the 500 to 750 range. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07 AVIATION...07