Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
637 FXUS64 KLCH 020607 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1207 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of patchy dense fog will occur over the next few nights ahead of strengthening southerly flow into the mid-week. - Warm and humid conditions will prevail through next weekend - Modest rain chances return by the middle of next week with an unsettled wet pattern trending into the following weekend && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 1203 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 Surface analysis depicts a dry regime across the region as a surface trough continues to organize near the ArkLaTex. With the active jet streak displaced well to the north across the Missouri Valley, rain- free conditions will persist through Tuesday. High temperatures will continue to moderate into the 70s and low 80s areawide. By Wednesday, an upper-level low over the Rockies will begin to reinforce the stationary trough to our north. The local pressure gradient will tighten between high pressure across the SECONUS and the deepening trough over the Southern Plains, resulting in a healthy onshore flow and breezy conditions Tuesday and Wednesday. While the stationary boundary is expected to remain north of the CWA (Coastal Weather Area), limiting broad moisture convergence, PoPs have been increased slightly for Wednesday afternoon to account for isolated activity utilizing modest low-level instability. Despite the increase in surface winds, rising diurnal humidity and slight precip chances will begin to mitigate fire weather concerns. Kowalski / 30 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1203 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 Model guidance continues to hold modest ridging across the eastern Gulf for Thursday. Forecast soundings still indicate persistent subsidence, which will likely limit even localized airmass-driven convection. Afternoon highs will trend slightly warmer, with interior locations reaching the low to mid-80s. A notable trend in recent forecast cycles is the "delay" of the stationary trough`s eastward progression toward the TX/LA coast. This stall is attributed to the SECONUS ridge remaining entrenched rather than shifting toward the central Atlantic. Nevertheless, the NBM approach maintains scattered, measurable precipitation chances through the weekend. A shortwave trough developing over the Southwest U.S. this weekend is progged to accelerate eastward, potentially shifting more favorable moisture convergence into the local area by Sunday night and into early next week. For now, the extended period remains unsettled with a gradual increase in precipitation potential. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 Mainly VFR conditions to persist through the remaining overnight hours. Terminals across southeast TX and far west LA may tempo to MVFR / IFR VIS due to radiational fog development. However, dense fog appears less favorable. Winds are forecast to remain light or calm with S / SE components. Winds will veer SE to S through the daylight hours of the morning with areas of FEW to SCT clouds between 2-4kft AGL. && .MARINE... Issued at 1203 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 A light onshore flow will remain in place through mid week. This will keep seas low as well. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1203 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 A moist onshore flow will remain in place through the week. Modest rain chances return by mid week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 80 56 82 63 / 0 0 0 10 LCH 76 59 79 65 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 78 60 81 65 / 0 0 0 10 BPT 78 61 80 64 / 0 0 10 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...30