297
FXUS64 KLCH 052051
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
351 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions along with isolated afternoon
  convection will persist through the weekend as the pattern
  remains stagnant

- Precipitation chances increase Sunday through mid week as a
  series of upper level disturbances move through the region

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Upper level ridging overhead is keeping afternoon convection to a
minimum although a few thunderstorms have managed to spring forth
around the Atchafalaya basin. Expect these to continue for the
next few hours before dissipating around sunset this evening.

The synoptic pattern will remain largely unchanged through
Saturday with upper level ridging keeping all but the most
ambitious thunderstorms at bay. The suppression will keep
afternoon highs in the lower 90s with heat indices ranging from
100-106 with Saturday afternoon seeing the warmest temperatures of
the period. Forecast heat indices have remained consistent, but
should they trend any higher, a heat advisory may be needed
Saturday afternoon.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

The upper level ridge will be pushed south into the gulf Sunday by
an upper trof and weak frontal boundary that will stall across
central or northern Louisiana Sunday evening. With the subsidence
out of the way and the approach of the frontal boundary, expect
somewhat higher convective coverage Sunday afternoon especially
around the Atchafalaya basin, but these likely won`t start in time
to have any material effect on daytime highs which will range from
the low to mid 90s with heat indices again 100-107.

A series of disturbances will ride along the quasistationary
boundary beginning Monday with the operational guidance now
depicting a closed low developing across east Texas Tuesday before
slowly lifting North. The combination of this will lead to a long
duration period of unsettled weather that will last through much
of next week. The tropical airmass will likely lead to efficient
rainfall producing storms that could pose a low end flash flood
threat. However, the increased cloud cover and  will keep daily
highs in the mid 80s giving the local air conditioners a bit of a
break from the early summer heat.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the taf period along with
light southerly winds. Upper level ridging aloft will keep
precipitation to a minimum this afternoon although a couple of
showers or thunderstorms can`t be completely ruled out between
18-00Z. Any storms that develop will dissipate around sunset.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Light to occasionally modest onshore flow and low seas will
persist through the middle of next week. A few showers and
thunderstorms will pop up sporadically though the day Friday and
Saturday with higher rain chances expected beginning Sunday
through the middle of the week as a couple of upper level
disturbances move across the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  72  93  74 /  20   0  10   0
LCH  90  76  90  77 /  10   0  10   0
LFT  91  74  90  76 /  20   0  10   0
BPT  91  76  91  77 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...66