937
FXUS64 KLCH 050917
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
317 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

Key Messages:
- Marine Dense Fog continues across the near coastal waters, lakes
  and bays where a Dense Fog Advisory has been extended through
  Noon Wednesday
- Temperature 10 to 15 degrees above typical values

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 256 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Not much has changed in the forecast as surface analysis shows
high pressure in the eastern Gulf that continues to push warm,
moist air onshore. Aloft ridging continues to suppress convection
across SWLA and SETX. In addition, our weather will remain warm
and muggy with daytime highs reaching into the upper 70s to low
80s with overnight lows in the 60s. Beaumont broke its record high
temperature yesterday. This is the third day in a row that
Beaumont has broken its high temperature record! The rest of the
region remained one to two degrees shy of breaking heat records.

The conditions that led to widespread dense fog the past several
nights have started to change. We still expect patchy fog with
pockets of poor visibility, but overall, visibility will improve
during the overnight hours. Increased cloud coverage has started
to limit inland radiation fog formation. Fog will remain dense
near the coast where the warm air mass will be moving over the
cold SSTs in the Gulf, creating a marine fog layer. Offshore and
along the coast, probabilities for visibility below 1/4 mile are
around 50%, with visibilities below 1 mile around 70 to 80%.

This pattern will continue through the end of the work week as our
upper air pattern remains flat across central CONUS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

The start of the long-term forecast will have more warm and muggy
conditions, but change will be on the way. Our upper air pattern
will begin to change during the weekend as an upper-level low will
move into the west coast. This low will push a weak cold front
south across the region. Some uncertainty has increased with this
front, with the earliest time of arrival being on Sunday. Some of
the more recent model runs have pushed the front farther back,
with the ECMWF keeping the front north of us until Monday. This
front will be on the weaker side with scattered to isolated
showers and thunderstorms expected with its passage. The main
impact from the front will be cooler temperatures, back down to
our normal temperature range.

Near the end of the extended forecast, there are signals for a
second, stronger cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

Categories are all over the place tonight, with most of them in
LIFR or expected to fall into LIFR shortly. Fog (and low CIGs)
will linger a bit past sunrise with gradual improvement into mid
tomorrow morning to afternoon. Decent conditions will be short
lived, however, with another round of fog and low CIGs possible
tomorrow late evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Dense marine fog will continue into late Wednesday morning across
the nearshore waters, lakes and bays.

Otherwise, high pressure over the Eastern Gulf will keep onshore
flow through the period. Light to moderate southerly to
southwesterly winds along with low to moderate seas for the next
several days. No showers or thunderstorms are expected for the
next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  65  81  61 /  10   0   0   0
LCH  77  63  77  63 /  10   0   0   0
LFT  79  65  81  63 /  10   0  10   0
BPT  79  64  79  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for LAZ027-030-
     044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ180-201-
     259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ430-432-435-436-
     450-452-455.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...87