400
FXUS64 KLCH 200442
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1142 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return for Easter Sunday, some
  storms may be severe. Unsettled weather continues through the
  week.

- An unsettled weather pattern continues through the upcoming
  week, with scattered showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.UPDATE...

Wx map shows nearly stationary front across Oklahoma/North and
West Texas. Further east, the large surface Bermuda High
continues to ridge westward across the Southeast U.S. and Gulf
states, keeping southeast winds across the area. Radar showing no
echos over our area, with light showers northwest of the area.
The strongest thunderstorms remain across West Texas and Oklahoma
this evening. Temperatures in the lower to mid 70s, only expected
to drop to near 70/lower 70s by daybreak as the southeast winds
around 5-10 mph continue across the area. Ongoing forecast on
track with no updates needed at this time.

08/DML

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

High pressure is centered off the southeast US coast, and a
frontal boundary is located to our north. That gives us a tighter
pressure gradient, and stronger winds today, with gusts generally
in the 25 to 30 mph range. Expecting similar conditions tomorrow
on Easter Sunday.

Temperatures this afternoon are in the upper 70s to mid 80s, so a
few degrees above normal. Tomorrow will bring similar afternoon
temperatures as well.

With the strong southerly flow, overnight lows are not dropping
too far, only into the upper 60s to lower 70s, around 10 degrees
above normal. This low temperature pattern will continue as well.

SPC does have a small area of east Texas and central Louisiana in
a marginal risk for severe storms on Sunday. The highest threat
will be up in Arkansas and Missouri.

Even though there is not a high severe weather threat, we are
expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon in
southeast Texas and western and central Louisiana,expanding to our
entire region on Monday as a cold front approaches. Rain totals
will range from a tenth of an inch or less in south central
Louisiana, to around 1.5 inches in east Texas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

The cold front stalls out in our region on Tuesday and moves back
north on Wednesday. What this means is we stay in a deep moisture
pattern, and anytime a mid to upper level disturbance moves
across our area, we will see scattered showers and thunderstorms.
SPC has not designated any particular area for severe storms, but
we will monitor that trend as we go through the upcoming week, as
we are in the primary severe weather season for our area.

Temperature-wise, we will stay running a little above normal (2-3
degrees) during the day, and more significantly above normal (10
degrees) at night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Gusty southerly winds will continue through the period. Cigs could
reach MVFR at times closer to the coast tonight. Otherwise some
prob30s were introduced for AEX, BPT and LCH terminals starting
late morning and continuing into the afternoon.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Winds and seas will remain high through tonight thanks to the
strong pressure gradient, before coming down a little on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  85  67  81 /   0  50  50  80
LCH  71  83  69  83 /   0  40  30  60
LFT  70  84  70  84 /   0  20  10  60
BPT  72  84  69  83 /   0  50  50  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ450-452-455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...27