Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
584 FXUS64 KLCH 011805 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 105 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - A weakness aloft and an advancing frontal boundary will work together to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon through Saturday night. - Due to very high moisture there will be a potential for excessive rainfall and a Marginal Flash Flood risk through Saturday night. - The shower activity and cloud cover should continue to keep the heat in check into Saturday, with lower humidity noted on Sunday into Monday. Therefore, no heat advisories planned at this time through Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 Most of the shower activity has been offshore so far today with an enhanced landbreezes from the northerly flow. Also, despite GOES still showing PWAT near or over 2 inches across the forecast area, looks like some slightly drier and stable air in the mid levels behind the disturbance from last night is keeping convection in check so far. The 01/18z upper air sounding from KLCH that is currently in progress will tell us a lot about potential convection later on this afternoon. CAMs still like the idea of some late afternoon early storm development with the northerly flow as max heating is reached. This is definitely in the realm of possibility so will keep the 30-40 percent pop going for the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, with activity either dissipating or moving offshore by midnight. Saturday is looking to be a more activity day, especially in the mid to late afternoon continuing into the night. A relative weakness will be noted aloft, with a surface boundary that is currently just north of the forecast area taking a dip to the south. Progs show a very moist air mass on Saturday with PWAT values above the 90th percentile and near or above 2.25 inches with mean layer relative humidity values between 70-80 percent. Northerly flow again should mean late in the afternoon thunderstorm development, just as the frontal boundary arrives, and with the expected daytime heating, will create enough instability to see widespread shower activity with scattered thunderstorms. With the high moisture content, the stronger storms will have the potential to produce torrential downpours with high rain rates in a short period of time bringing about a localized flash flood risk, especially in the higher rainfall amounts occur over poor drainage urban areas. With extra focus from the surface boundary, storms may take a little longer to dissipate during the night. On Sunday, a lot will depend on where the frontal boundary decides to set up shop. Although, some mid level drier air also looks to slip into the region, so this will help lower rain chances, with the best chances likely right along the coast with seabreeze and old frontal boundary interactions. Lower dewpoints moving in should also keep the heat risk in check for Sunday. Rua && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 Some drier air aloft and behind a stalled frontal boundary over the forecast area will likely bring low rain chances and low afternoon humidity values on Monday. The frontal boundary will washout by Tuesday with an increase in Gulf moisture, although moisture values should be pretty close to normal with no tropical-like surges noted at this time like we have the past couple of weeks. The forecast area also looks to be located in a break of the subtropical ridge, so typical scattered afternoon showers or storms look to prevail each day, especially near any seabreeze boundaries. Rua && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 Mainly VFR conditions occurring this afternoon with some brief ceilings right near MVFR. After 01/21z, showers and thunderstorms may start to form with max daytime heating and a north flow aloft. Will mention VCTS at all terminals at that time. Activity will last into the evening hours before dissipating or moving offshore after 02/04z. Mainly VFR during the overnight as the air mass stabilizes. However, there will be a chance of some MVFR conditions between 02/10z-14z at KAEX due to patchy fog or low clouds. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 A surface boundary will approach the coastal waters from the north on Saturday then stall and washout through early next week. Mainly a light west to northwest flow is expected out ahead of the frontal boundary with low seas. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms each day and winds and seas will be higher near the storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 A very moist air mass, a disturbance aloft, and a surface frontal boundary will combine to bring high humidity and a decent chance for rain into Saturday night. Slightly drier air will try to work into the forecast area on Sunday, reducing rain chances and humidity, especially for upper southeast Texas and central Louisiana. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 73 91 70 92 / 30 60 20 20 LCH 75 93 74 92 / 50 70 60 50 LFT 75 92 74 91 / 40 70 40 40 BPT 75 93 74 91 / 50 70 70 50 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...07