590
FXUS64 KLCH 062047
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
347 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions along with isolated afternoon
  convection will persist through the weekend as the pattern
  remains stagnant

- Maximum heat index values will range from 100 to 106 Saturday
  and Sunday

- Precipitation chances increase Sunday through much of the
  upcoming week as a series of upper level disturbances move
  through the region

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Another round of isolated showers and thunderstorms ongoing around
the Atchafalaya basin this afternoon with scattered fair weather
CU dotting the region elsewhere. Biggest concern in the short term
will be heat as the region remains on the northern periphery of an
upper level ridge offering weak subsidence over the western gulf
coast. In addition to keeping convection limited, the sinking air
will push apparent temperatures into the 100-106 degree range
Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Strongly considered the need for a
heat advisory tomorrow afternoon, but NBM dewpoints appear
unrealistic. After blending them back with ensemble guidance,
max values fell closer to 105 so opted to forego the heat advisory
for the time being. This will be reevaluated tonight and again
tomorrow.

The upper ridge will be pushed back offshore by late Sunday as a
broad upper trof works into the region stalling a weak frontal
boundary across central or north Louisiana Sunday night. While
this will allow for a bit more in the way of cloud cover and
thunderstorm coverage during the late afternoon, the much better
precipitation chances will hold off until daytime heating gets
underway Monday.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

The combination of a quasistationary frontal boundary across north
Louisiana and a series of upper level disturbances moving along
it will result in a prolonged period of unsettled weather through
much of next week beginning Monday. While the most significant
rainfall is expected during the afternoons, some storms will
likely continue through the overnight hours. In particular, one
of the disturbances working through the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday will keep precipitation chances elevated through the
night. Given the tropical airmass in place as is normal this time
of year, any of these storms will be capable of producing locally
heavy rainfall that could lead to nuisance street flooding.
Several inches of rain are expected over the five day period.

A developing closed low over central or east Texas will eventually
lift North into the plains late next Friday allowing the area to
return to more typical, diurnally driven, convection by next
weekend.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Scattered cloud cover has developed under the ongoing high
pressure regime. Expect much of the same seen in recent days,
scattered fair-weather cumulus with breezy south winds. A few
areas may see some lowered VIS due to patchy fog overnight.

Conditions will then improve after sunrise as daytime heating
resumes and the diurnal cycle begins again.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Light to occasionally modest onshore flow and low seas will
persist through the middle of next week. A few showers and
thunderstorms will pop up sporadically this afternoon and
Saturday with higher rain chances expected beginning Sunday
through next week as a couple of upper level disturbances move
across the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  94  75  95 /   0  10   0  30
LCH  78  91  77  92 /   0  10   0  20
LFT  76  92  77  92 /   0  30   0  40
BPT  77  92  77  93 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...11