146
FXUS64 KLCH 171105
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
605 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate to Major heat risk is noted through the weekend as a
  prolonged period of above normal hot and humid weather will
  persist.

- An upper level ridge will keep any significant chance for rain
  out of the forecast into early next week.

- Trends show a cold front moving through next Tuesday late
  night/Wednesday morning that will bring a chance for rain along
  with the potential for cooler nights and less humid days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

A mix of low clouds with southerly winds bringing Gulf moisture
under the atmospheric cap and high level clouds that is mainly
left over convective blow off from storms that formed over Texas.
Rather muggy conditions also occurring with air temperatures and
dew points in the mid 70s.

Expect upper level ridge centered over the southern Gulf to hold
enough over the forecast area through the weekend to keep any
convection that may form over north central Texas later today to
the north, with similar scenario on Sunday.

Southerly breezes will persist and allow low level Gulf moisture
to move into the forecast area making for rather humid conditions
for May. With air temperatures above climo norms, the max
apparent temperature each day will be near or above 100F degrees.
With that, the NWS Heat Risk from WPC will stay in the Moderate to
some spots of Major each day also. These categories are a Level 2
(Moderate) to Level 3 (Major) on a scale up to 4.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Still some consistency in the global guidance to bring a cold
front across the forecast area during the overnight Tuesday night
into early Wednesday morning. Decent moisture building up ahead of
the front with PWAT values in the 1.75 to 2.0 inch range and mean
layer relative humidity in the 100H-50H level between 60 and 70
percent. However, progs show weak low level convergence and
frontal forcing, with best upper level dynamics staying off to the
north. Therefore, will only mention a 20 to 30 percent chance for
showers or thunderstorms as the front moves through.

Some differences in how much drier air and strong the cooler air
advection will be behind the front. About a 8F to 10F degrees
spread between the GFS and ECMWF for Thursday and Friday, with
the GFS cooler and drier, which is also the spread in the NBM
ensemble whisker plots. Will go with operational National Blend
of Models temperatures for consistency purposes, although it
should be noted that these values are at the 25th percentile of
the ensemble whisker plots.

Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Southerly winds bringing in Gulf moisture helping to develop
scattered to broken cloud cover under the atmospheric cap with
ceilings at MVFR levels. Winds will increase after 17/15z with
ceilings lifting to VFR levels for the remainder of the day.
Looks like another repeat this evening with MVFR ceilings
returning shortly after 18/00z with the potential for IFR
ceilings around 18/06z.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Southerly winds are a little lower this morning over the coastal
waters this early morning with modest breezes occurring due to a
decreasing pressure gradient as a surface low moves away from the
region and toward the Great Lakes.

Surface high pressure will continue to ridge across the northern
Gulf through the remainder of the weekend into early next week.
This will allow a light to occasionally moderate southerly flow to
persist.

An upper level ridge will keep any significant chance for showers
out of the forecast through the weekend.

A cold front is expected to move into the coastal waters early
Wednesday morning that will bring the next chance for showers or
thunderstorms, along with a moderate northerly flow behind it.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  72  92  72 /  10  10   0   0
LCH  87  75  87  75 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  89  75  88  75 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  89  75  88  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07