715
FXUS64 KLCH 232341
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
641 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Upper high moved off to the north and east will keep hot and
  humid conditions in the forecast. Max afternoon heat index
  values will be around 100-106 degrees.

- A moist and unstable air mass with a weakness aloft will help
  bring a rather high daily chance of scattered showers and
  thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon, for the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Very little change anticipated from day to day over the short term
period. Scattered convection has developed across southwestern
portions of the area. This increase in coverage is expected today
with high pressure having moved off to the north. Further
increases in rain chances / coverage expected Tuesday and
Wednesday as an inverted trof moves near the region.

High temps in the upper 80s to low/mid 90s are anticipated today,
Tuesday and again Wednesday with daytime maximum heat indices in
the 100 to 106F range. The increases in daytime PoPs may help keep
some heat in check, but never rely on this if you must be
outdoors.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Surface high reappears into the mid to late week as upper high
dissipates. This surface high will keep most rain chances in check
and will allow for daytime temps, as well as maximum heat indices
to soar. By the start of the weekend, max heat indices in the 105
to 109F range will be possible. The first Heat Advisories of the
year may be coming down the pike.

11/Calhoun

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Scattered, diurnally driven, convection will continue for the next
couple of hours before dissipating around sunset. Light, variable
winds and VFR ceilings will prevail overnight. Another round of
diurnally driven convection will develop by mid Tuesday morning
enhanced somewhat by higher atmospheric moisture expected to move
into the region. VCTS will prevail at all the coastal terminals
from late morning through the evening. Storms will be less likely
although possible at AEX through the afternoon.

Gradient winds will be generally light out of the east owing to a
broad surface high centered over the southeast CONUS. However,
outflow boundaries resulting from developing storms may result in
periods of higher gusts and localized rapid changes in wind
direction.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

High pressure settled far to the north remains well in control of
the forecast through the period. Expect nocturnal development
which will then persist developing over the waters in the daytime.
Low seas and onshore flow to persist.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Hot and humid conditions to prevail. Daytime minimum RH values
will hover in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Expect a return to normal
summer pattern of showers and thunderstorms developing along the
coastline before moving inland in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  93  72  94 /  20  30  10  10
LCH  74  90  74  91 /  30  60  30  50
LFT  73  90  74  92 /  30  60  20  40
BPT  75  90  75  90 /  20  60  40  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...66