857
FXUS64 KLCH 230549
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1149 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Friday afternoon surface analysis shows elongated high pressure in
the Plains, extending down to the Ark-La-Tex region. Aloft, a
robust low pressure system is over the eastern CONUS while
ridging is over the Rockies, resulting in a NWrly flow over the
forecast area. Dry and cool conditions are ongoing across the CWA
this afternoon, with temperatures currently ranging from the mid
60s to near 70 degrees, amid sunny skies. Seasonal conditions will
continue through the remainder of the afternoon, with temps then
expected to fall quickly post-sunset. As we near sunrise tomorrow,
lows are expected to bottom out in the mid 30s inland to mid 40s
near the coast, which will likely allow for some patchy frost to
develop across central Louisiana around the 4-7AM time frame.

Tomorrow, surface high pressure will gradually build further
south, becoming centered overhead by the afternoon. Aloft, the E
CONUS low will shift off into the Atlantic allowing ridging to
build across the Plains through the day, and in turn gradually
developing a more zonal flow overhead that will last through the
next several days. Tomorrow evening into tomorrow night, surface
high pressure exits off to our east, allowing winds to shift
onshore once again. This will cause moisture return to ramp up
through the second half of the weekend, bringing back above
average temps and more humid conditions. However, tomorrow will
still be a pleasant and seasonal day, so enjoy it while its here,
with highs expected to top out in the mid 60s to low 70s once
again. By Sunday, dewpoints will be surging through the day,
allowing temps to reach into the mid 70s to near 80 by the
afternoon hours.

17

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Heading into the work week, strengthening onshore flow allows
moisture to continue to pool overhead, with PWATs increasing to
around 1.2" by Mon afternoon, which is near the 75th percentile
according to SPC climo. Around the same time, a mid latitude
shortwave will push a cold front south towards the forecast area,
with the boundary expected to arrive late Mon into early Tues.
Decent low level forcing along this front, along with sufficient
moisture overhead, should allow for some scattered shower activity
to develop along the boundary as it moves through overnight, with
rain chances tapering off by Tuesday morning as the front becomes
increasingly slowed down overhead.

A brief wind shift in the wake of the front will bring a small
shot of drier air to the region on Tuesday, allowing for a
somewhat more seasonal and dry day. Still won`t be nearly as dry
as the last several days, but dewpoints should fall into the 50s
through the afternoon, while highs will top out in the upper 60s
inland to upper 70s near the coast. Onshore flow redevelops
quickly overnight into Wednesday, as what remains of the front
meanders back north and allows for an influx of moisture return
once again. Small rain chances can be expected for Wednesday
afternoon, along with mostly cloudy skies. Overnight Wed into
Thanksgiving Day rain chances increase further as another cold
front approaches the region. Rain chances remain elevated until
the passage of the front which should occur through Thursday
afternoon and evening. Most of this precip should be moderate
rainfall however, can`t rule out some thunderstorms in the mix as
well. Much cooler and drier conditions filter into the area
overnight Thursday into Friday as the front exits off to our east
and high pressure again builds overhead.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR conditions expected to remain through daybreak and continue
during the diurnal hours under a high pressure regime. Some
guidance is suggestive of brief ground BR in portions of central
LA upon dawn, however, very dry air a few hundred few aloft will
keep BR minimal at best. Strong temperature inversion developing
in lowest 600ft AGL by prior to sunrise. Variable light winds out
of the north will shift southerly by this evening.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  36  65  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  42  68  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  41  68  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  45  70  56  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...30