Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
747 FXUS64 KLCH 221814 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 114 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - A weak frontal boundary will linger in the area or just offshore into next week. The boundary combined with a very moist airmass will create an elevated chance for rain today and Saturday, especially near the coast. - A building high pressure system over the Mountain West is expected to bring a dry northwest flow into the forecast area over the weekend with lower rain chances and less humid conditions Sunday into next week. - Another weak cold front may enter the area by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed over the CWA. Given greater cloud coverage in place and earlier development of PoPs, high temperatures have been lowered this afternoon. Prognosis during the remainder of the afternoon is the for the atmosphere to be slowly worked through, or stabilize amid a weakly sheared environment. Thus while most storms will remain sub-severe, this environment will allow at least of Marginal risk of excessive rainfall to persist into this evening, however. By Saturday, the stalled frontal system / coastal trough will meander further offshore. As this feature lingers, PoPs do trend a higher gradient of chances south of the I-10 corridor compared to further north over CenLA where chances are much lower as dry air attempts to infiltrate from the central Plains. PoPs continue to lower Sunday as the coastal trough migrates east allowing the boundary to push further offshore. Highs will trend further toward the mid 90`s with less sky coverage. Kowalski / 30 && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 By Monday, a longwave trough will deepen over Southern Canada into the Midwest. Day time highs will warm further into the mid 90`s once again. Smaller shortwave troughs embedded within the feature will amplify further south in the Ohio Valley as the closed upper level low rotates south of the Hudson Bay(Canada) into next week. Locally, drier conditions will initially take place ahead of the boundary Monday afternoon with the exception of a few isolated showers / storms that develop during the afternoon. As this boundary also slows toward the coast, strong subsidence will work against the marine BL to mitigate precipitation early in the work week ahead. The upper level trough will begin to shift east of the Mississippi by Tuesday as the boundary reforms and hugs the immediate coast. This will allow a few afternoon showers and storms to develop through the middle of next work week. Regarding temperatures hereafter, guidance does trend down highs toward the upper 80`s and lower 90`s. Meanwhile, evening lows will keep into the upper 60`s in CenLA and lower 70`s toward the coast Monday evening through the remainder of the forecast period. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 A large thunderstorm complex has formed east to west over KLCH. This system will continue to cause IFR/LIFR conditions at LCH and will spread west, impacting BPT around 19Z. VCTS is in place across the region through sunset as a lingering boundary extends across the CWA. LFT and ARA should also expect more widespread impacts starting around 03Z. AEX will stay north of the main complex but sporadic showers and storms will be possible until sunset. Outside of thunderstorms VFR conditions with light winds. Tomorrow afternoon will be a repeat of today with afternoon showers and thunderstorms. PROB30 is in the extended forecast to cover those concerns. && .MARINE... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 A trough will stall along the coast through tonight. This trough will help bring an increase in chances for showers and thunderstorms during any time of day through Friday. More typical scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly late night and early morning, and again in the afternoon will be in the forecast over the weekend as the weak front is driven offshore. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 A weak frontal boundary will stall near the coast today. Scattered to numerous storms are expected by afternoon. A slightly drier airmass will filter in during the weekend with lessening rain chances. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 70 92 69 95 / 10 10 0 0 LCH 73 90 73 94 / 60 50 10 20 LFT 73 90 72 93 / 30 40 10 10 BPT 72 89 73 94 / 60 60 20 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...14