Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
899 FXUS64 KLCH 161741 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1241 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Gulf moisture moving up the coastline will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms today. - Away from rainfall and clouds, temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 90s with Heat Indices ranging 103 to 107F. - Marginal Risk of flash flooding today. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 At the surface, high pressure in the northern Gulf will continue to push moisture north, keeping our dewpoints high. Aloft, ridging extends across much of the southeast United States. This ridge will help limit storm formation across the region, with showers and storms isolated today and Sunday. PWAT values remain high, above the 75th percentile, near 2 inches. Showers and storms in the afternoon have the potential for torrential downpours, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) in effect for today. Due to the ridge, we will start to see temperatures creep up, with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Heat advisories may be needed for Sunday across the region as Heat Index values will approach 108 area-wide. Overall, the short-term forecast will be hot and humid. Be sure to drink plenty of water and take breaks from the heat! && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Friday) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 The high-pressure center will meander northwest over the workweek and will eventually settle over the Four Corners region. During this time, our upper air pattern will be primarily zonal, but midweek models show a weak shortwave trough will move across the region, bringing an increase in showers and storms. Overall, we are still in a typical summertime pattern with afternoon storms along with hot and humid weather. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Mainly VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours with the possibility of periods of MVFR ceilings from cumulus fields. Near convection conditions will be MVFR/IFR with convection possible during the afternoon hours. High pressure overhead will limit convection today and Sunday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Wind and waves are light with winds from the south around 10 knots and waves between 1 and 3 feet. Showers and thunderstorms are the main concern for mariners with high waves and winds near thunderstorms. Midweek winds will become southeasterly. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Despite high KBDI values (above 600 for most of central Louisiana), high minimum RH values and near-normal rainfall amounts this summer have limited fires. Over the next 5 days, rainfall chances will decrease for central Louisiana but will remain high along the coast. Minimum RH values will remain near 50% with light winds. Overall, fire danger will stay on the low end for the rest of the forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 96 75 97 74 / 30 10 20 10 LCH 95 77 96 76 / 40 10 30 20 LFT 94 77 95 76 / 40 10 30 10 BPT 93 76 96 76 / 40 10 30 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...14