Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
146 FXUS64 KLCH 072338 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 638 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and humid conditions are expected until a cold front moves across on Thursday. An upper level high and dry air aloft will keep any significant shower activity form developing. - A dry continental air mass will move into the region behind the cold front and linger into the weekend. This will keep significant rain chances out of the forecast with lower humidity and cooler night time lows. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Surface analysis shows a weak stationary boundary draped from near Memphis into SE TX, while a cold front is just behind it draped across MO/OK and into north TX. Aloft, broad flat ridging is situated across the northern Gulf Coast and somewhat drier air is noted overhead in WV imagery. After a very foggy start to the morning skies have finally become partly sunny across the forecast area, while temperatures currently range from the upper 70s to mid 80s along with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. Ridging aloft will gradually shift westward and amplify across the Plains through the mid/late week, keeping dry air aloft and a cap on convection overhead. At the same time, moisture remains elevated at the surface through the next couple of days, until the passage of a cold front on Thurs finally ushers in some drier air later in the week. Until then, expect a continuation of the hot and humid weather of the last few days, with highs reaching into the low 90s today and tomorrow along with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Thurs will bring a transition period, as the front moves through early allowing for highs to warm into the mid to upper 80s however, the drier air looks like it`ll hang back a bit and won`t fully arrive until Thurs afternoon/night, with PWATs expected to gradually fall throughout the day. No precip is expected with this frontal passage, thanks to ridging aloft. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Monday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Friday into the weekend will bring our most pleasant stretch of weather through this forecast period, as dry air fully filters down into the CWA Thurs night allowing PWATs to fall below 1" for a couple of days. Dewpoints plummet into the low to mid 50s for sunrise Fri, leveling off in the upper 50s to low 60s range Fri through Sun. Temperature wise, highs top out in the mid 80s through the weekend while lows fall into the upper 50s to low 60s. A slight increase in low level moisture is expected by late Sun into early next week however, the upper levels will remain dry as troughing develops across the SErn US and reinforces a dry NWrly flow overhead. While humidity/dewpoints increase slightly Sun through Tues (particularly for those along and south of I-10) mostly sunny skies and overall dry weather will continue. This uptick in moisture will be mainly noticeable in slightly warmer afternoon highs and overnight lows. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 A few showers over southeast Texas associated with a prefrontal trough are not expected to reach any terminals before they dissipate after sunset. Rather stable conditions expected during the overnight as the prefrontal trough pushes through the forecast area allowing for a light northeast flow to develop before morning. At the moment the lower Acadiana area is where the probs show any fog formation, and that is not as bullish as last night, with below 1 mile in the 20 to 30 percent range. Will mention the possibility of IFR conditions between 08/09z-13z at KLFT/KARA. On Wednesday, northeast winds around 10 knots can be expected with mainly VFR conditions. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Light east to northeast winds along with a few isolated showers will continue this afternoon into tonight. Tomorrow, winds will become light to modest from the northeast as weak surface high pressure ridging across the Gulf coast states will build into the coastal waters. The offshore winds along with seas will increase by Thursday as a cold front moves into the coastal waters. Offshore winds will remain elevated through the end of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Shallow low level moisture will persist overhead into Thursday until the passage of a cold front that will usher in a drier airmass Thurs night through the weekend. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values are expected to be between 50 and 60 percent through Wednesday, falling into the low 40s to low 50s thereafter. Despite low level moisture overhead, ridging aloft will keep rain chances near zero through the rest of the week and into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 68 88 63 83 / 10 10 0 0 LCH 71 90 70 87 / 10 10 0 0 LFT 71 90 69 87 / 0 10 0 0 BPT 71 90 70 88 / 10 10 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...07