917
FXUS64 KLCH 192048
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
348 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Surface analysis shows broad high pressure ridging over the OH
Valley southwest into TX. This was producing a light to moderate
easterly wind over the region. Ridging extends into the mid levels
per WV imagery and UA analysis, with a very dry airmass over the
region. Latest LAPS Layer Precip Water and GOES TPW imagery show
PWATs ranging from 0.2-0.3 across N LA to around 0.6 across S LA,
which is around or below the 10th percentile for this time of
year. This was resulting in sunny skies across the region, and
has allowed temperatures to climb to around 80 degrees this
afternoon.

The dry pattern is expected to continue for the foreseeable
future, and this will allow drought conditions to persist/worsen
across the area. This will also maintain elevated fire weather
concerns each day, although relatively light winds across the area
will limit rapid spread.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Ridging will prevail in the mid-upper levels through Monday,
keeping a dry airmass over the region and diverting deeper
moisture over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The shortwave over the
southwestern US will lift northeast across CO on Sunday and into
the central CONUS by Monday, with flow aloft transitioning more
zonal going into the early part of the week. The airmass over the
region will remain too dry and capped to support any
precipitation.

Surface ridging will eventually shift eastward on Monday in
response to the approaching shortwave aloft, with the ridge axis
drifting south and becoming oriented SW-NE over the LCH CWA. A
prevailing east to northeast low level wind field is expected to
continue into the early part of the workweek, but surface winds
will begin to lighten. Temperatures will remain near to above
normal, with lows ranging from around 50 north to middle and upper
50s south while high climb into the lower 80s with highs on
Monday a degree or two warmer than Sunday.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

The central CONUS shortwave will progress toward the northeast on
Tuesday, with a stronger shortwave digging across the northern
CONUS in its wake on Wednesday. Flow aloft will trend more zonal
to northwesterly aloft as the mid-upper level ridge gets displaced
westward across N Mexico. The passage of the stronger shortwave
will also allow a cold front to slide south across the central US
on Wednesday and into the area on Thursday. Model guidance from
12Z however suggests there is some uncertainty on how far south
the front will progress, with the feature potentially stalling
just north of the region. Despite this uncertainty, there has not
been a significant change in the forecast philosophy as moisture
and support will be too lacking to provide any relief from the dry
conditions even if the boundary were to sag further southward.
Meanwhile, a gradual warming trend is still expected, with high
temperatures climbing into the middle to upper 80s each afternoon.
Low temperatures will likewise moderate from the 50s across much
of the area Tuesday night to the middle 50s to lower 60s by the
end of the week.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

VFR conditions with mostly clear skies to prevail through the
period. Winds will be easterly 8-12 KT with occasional higher
gusts can be expected at BPT/LCH, and less than 10 KT at
AEX/LFT/ARA. Winds will subside to around 5 KT or less around
sunset.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

A tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern
United States and lower pressure toward the Southern Gulf will
keep moderate to strong easterly winds through Sunday. A Small
Craft Advisory will remain in effect overnight into Sunday due to
these stronger winds and rough seas, especially over the offshore
waters beyond 20 NM.

Due to the increased easterly flow, minor coastal flooding is
again expected across coastal areas across SW LA, SE TX and
adjacent coastal lakes and bays near times of high tide tonight
into early Sunday morning. Winds and seas are expected to
gradually subside by Sunday night thorough Wednesday as high
pressure settles over the region.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  48  81  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  55  82  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  55  83  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  58  84  56  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM CDT Sunday for LAZ073-074-252.

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ615.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ450-452-455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24