Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
981 FXUS64 KLCH 102315 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 615 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Afternoon highs today will again climb into the low to mid 90s with heat indices ranging from 99-107 today. - Higher precipitation chances are expected through the weekend as deep moisture moves across the area and interacts with a weakness aloft. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026 Upper air analysis and water vapor imagery show the elongated ridge over the southern CONUS has broken down overhead this afternoon, with a weakness aloft now in place across E TX and the lower MS River Valley. At the surface, a disturbance is located near the mouth of the MS River, providing convection across much of the NWrn Gulf Coast since early this morning. Across the forecast area, there are two distinct areas of convection, the first over our eastern zones associated with this disturbance and the second over our western zones and down the TX Coast. Both of these areas should gradually expand inland through the afternoon, while the eastern convection will become more prominent due to the nearby disturbance. With plenty of moisture to work with, some of this convection will have the potential to produce heavy downpours capable of flooding, therefore a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall is in place across lower Acadiana today/tonight. Elsewhere, while atmospheric moisture will be prevalent the isolated nature of these storms should cause less, if any, issues. Tomorrow into Saturday, the surface disturbance continues to meander around the NW Gulf Coast keep excessive moisture (PWATs remaining in the 2.00" range) in place overhead. Aloft, a weak shortwave looks to drop down into the Ark-La-Tex region tomorrow within the weakness aloft and linger there through Saturday. Combination of these factors will again result in more wet weather with scattered to widespread showers and storms expected both Fri and Sat. Fri, a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall is outlined along the I-49 corridor, closer to the surface disturbance. Saturday, the area along and south of the I-190 corridor becomes outlined in a Marginal Risk. Late Saturday into Sunday ridging again begins to build overhead and steadily maintain control into next week. NBM keeps modest POPs in place Sun int next week however, given the trend in guidance towards a building ridge wouldn`t be shocked to see these POPs come down over the coming days. We still could see some isolated daytime heating convection each afternoon, especially Sun/Mon as the ridge become established, but widespread convection similar to today/the next couple of days looks unlikely. On the flip side, this will allow temperatures to steadily rise with highs reaching into the mid to upper 90s next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026 A few storms will linger until sunset, but additional scattered storms will be possible by tomorrow, especially along the sea breeze. Patchy and thin BR will occur around sunrise. Even with convection and BR, mostly VFR conditions are anticipated during the period. Winds will be light and VRB tonight and become more south to SW by mid day Fri. && .MARINE... Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026 Outside of storms, generally light southerly winds are anticipated through the period as high pressure remains centered off the Atlantic coast. Seas will also remain low. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026 A moisture rich airmass and a nearby disturbance will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region today through the weekend. Fire weather concerns look minimal through this period, with rainfall expected to help improve drought conditions across much of the area. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17 AVIATION...05