103
FXUS64 KLCH 291757
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1257 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A very moist air mass will combine with daytime heating to
  produce widespread splash and dash showers and storms for the
  remainder of the afternoon. Some brief torrential downpours and
  cloud to ground lightning will be possible with the storms..


- The deeper surge of Gulf moisture will move away with an upper
  level ridge building in providing hot and humid conditions with
  mainly isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers and storms
  with daytime heating and the seabreeze.

- Typical summertime weather is expected by the 4th of July
  weekend with a ridge to the west and trough to the east to
  provide a daily chance of afternoon showers and storms with hot
  and humid conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

A surge of deeper Gulf moisture with PWAT over 2 inches has moved
into the forecast area for this afternoon. Daytime heating and
mesoscale boundaries like the sea breeze will allow for widespread
showers and a few storms to continue until sunset. Brief
torrential downpours, cloud to ground lightning, wind gusts to 30
mph will be possible with the storms.

Activity will decrease in the early evening hours with fair but
muggy conditions during the night. Some patchy fog will be
possible right around sunrise mainly over grassy areas that
receive rainfall.

Upper level ridging moves into the forecast area for Monday and
Tuesday and this is expected to reduce the afternoon showers and
storms to a more isolated to widely scattered variety.

Temperatures will be a little warmer with less convection and
humid as southerly flow continues. Expected afternoon heat index
values between 102F and 107F degrees and just below advisory
criteria.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

A frontal system from the north will stall north of the forecast
area by Thursday with the best push of it to the south east of the
forecast area and into the southeast US. A pattern of the trough
to the east and an upper level ridge looks to set up for the end
of week toward the holiday. This will likely provide typical
summertime weather with a daily chance for afternoon scattered
showers and thunderstorms with hot and humid days.

NHC has outlined an area over the eastern Gulf across Florida for
a 20 percent chance of development for the end of the week. Even
if this system develops it will likely remain east of the forecast
area not have any impacts for southeast Texas or southwest
Louisiana.

Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

A very moist air mass will remain over the forecast area for the
remainder of the afternoon. This combined with daytime heating
will provide widespread showers and storms near the terminals
through about 29/21z-23z. Some brief gusty winds to 25 knots and
MVFR/IFR conditions if a storm moves over a terminal, otherwise
away from the convection expect VFR conditions.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Weak high pressure will be noted over the coastal waters through
mid week. This will provide mainly light onshore winds and
relatively low seas. Lower rain chances are also expected through
mid week as weak high pressure will aloft will also be found over
the coastal waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Widespread showers and storms for the remainder of the afternoon
then diminishing in the early evening with the loss of daytime
heating. Lower rain chances expected on Monday and Tuesday as
some upper level ridging moves in. Despite this, southerly flow in
the low level will continue to bring in high humidity with minimum
relative humidity values near or above 50 percent for central
Louisiana and upper southeast Texas with near or above 60 percent
for the I-10 corridor to the coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  72  94  74 /  60  20  20  10
LCH  88  77  92  76 /  70  10  20   0
LFT  89  75  92  76 /  70  20  30  10
BPT  88  76  92  75 /  70  10  20   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07