876
FXUS64 KLCH 031723
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1223 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy conditions will continue each day today through Saturday
  as a series of low pressure systems develop over Texas and the
  southern plains.

- A Wind Advisory and Coastal Flood Advisory are in effect through
  this evening/tonight and again from Friday morning through
  Friday evening.

- A strong cold front will move through the area Saturday. Storms
  with this cold front will have the potential to be severe with
  tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail all possible.

- Much cooler, drier air will move in behind the cold front
  Saturday night through the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Gusty winds continue across the area this morning, but they are
significantly lower at this hour than yesterday afternoon where
some areas saw peak wind gusts over 50 MPH. The 24 hour average
sustained winds across the region exceeded 20 MPH at LCH (22.9),
ARA (22 MPH), and BPT (23 MPH). The surface low responsible has
since lifted off to the Northeast across the Great Lakes, but the
entrenched upper level trof across the western U.S. will induce
another broad surface low across north Texas and the southern
plains today which will again tighten the pressure gradient
between it and a broad ridge off the southeastern U.S. coast.
Guidance consensus is a bit lower on peak winds today compared to
yesterday, but we`ll still be looking at 20-25 MPH southerly flow
winds gusts as high as 40. Guidance does show some more breaks in
the cloud cover today so the breeze may be a welcome offset to the
mid to upper 80 temperatures and low 70s dewpoints that will
result.

A similar setup expected for Friday with winds expected to be in
the 20-25 MPH range with gusts up to 40. The Wind Advisory has
been extended through Friday evening although with guidance in
good agreement on winds being a little slower to increase across
central Louisiana, the start time was split to start at noon
across CENLA and 7 AM closer to the coast.

The strong southerly winds will continue into Saturday as the
aforementioned upper trof responsible begins to eject eastward
across the central U.S. and pushes a cold front through the
region. Severe weather threat parameters are increasing along and
ahead of this boundary with forecast soundings indicating lapse
rates over 7.0 deg C per KM, CAPE from 2400-2700 J/KG, 40+ knots
of 0-1 km shear and a hooked hodograph owing to an increasing 850
MPH low level jet. It`s likely that a squall line will develop
along the leading edge of the front with isolated to scattered
discreet supercells developing ahead of it from late Saturday
morning through early Sunday morning. SPC has highlighted the
entire region away from the immediate coastline in an enhanced
risk for severe weather Saturday. In addition to the severe
weather threat, forecast PWAT values of over 2 inches will support
torrential rainfall that could pose a localized flash flooding
threat.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Following the passage of the cold front, much cooler, drier air
will filter into the region on, thankfully, somewhat more relaxed
northerly winds bringing spring back to the area. Guidance has
been in consistent agreement on highs Sunday and Monday topping
out only in the mid to upper 60s with overnight lows in the mid
40s along with plenty of sunshine. The airmass will begin to
moderate by next Thursday as high pressure slides east of the area
turning light winds back out of the south, but even so, highs
will remain pleasant in the upper 70s.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Windy conditions will continue to be the main concern through the
TAF period as sustained winds near 15-25 kts with gusts near
25-35 kts continue at all sites. Otherwise, VFR to MVFR ceilings
will continue into this evening, becoming MVFR area-wide around
sunset and then briefly MVFR/IFR early tomorrow morning, before
again transitioning to MVFR/VFR later tomorrow morning.

17

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

South winds of 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots and seas of
6-10 feet will continue through Saturday. A cold front will push
through the coastal waters Saturday afternoon accompanied by a
squall line capable of producing severe weather including damaging
winds, large hail, waterspouts, frequent lightning and heavy
rainfall. Winds will turn offshore and relax behind the front
Saturday night and remain that way through mid next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  87  72  84 /   0  30  20  90
LCH  74  84  74  82 /   0  10  10  80
LFT  75  85  74  84 /   0  10  10  60
BPT  76  84  74  82 /  10  10  10  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-
     055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

     Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ027>033.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ044-045-055-
     073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LAZ073-
     074-241-252>254.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ073-
     074-241-252>254.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-
     515-516-615-616.

     Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ180-259-260.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ201-261-262-
     515-516-615-616.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ615-
     616.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ615-
     616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ430-432-435-
     436-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...17