496
FXUS64 KLCH 212314
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
514 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 330 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Enjoy another day of picture perfect weather with clear skies,
apart from the occasional marsh fire plumes visible even from
satellite this afternoon. Temperatures will remain below average,
thanks to a reinforcing cold front currently marching south
through N LA. As it sweeps across our area, a cooler high
pressure will move in then settle overhead by tomorrow night.
This is when the atmospheric thermostat takes a sharp dip,
bringing the coldest temperatures we`ve seen so far this November.
Parts of CenLA have a 50 to 90% chance of seeing freezing
temperatures. Elsewhere, expect a chilly night with lows in the
mid 30s to 40s across the CWA.

Unfortunately, your complimentary fall/winter trial wraps up
there. Starting Saturday, a warming trend will begin, gradually
pulling temperatures back up as we head into the weekend. The
high pressure system will shift offshore near the MS/AL Gulf
Coast, allowing southerly winds to become reestablished. Daytime
highs will remain near seasonal norms, but Saturday night
temperatures will take a modest step up, only falling to the 40s
to 50s inland and the lower 60s closer to the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

After several cool and pleasant days, warm and humid weather returns
on Sunday as onshore flow strengthens between surface high pressure
near FL and low pressure in the central Plains. Temperatures top out
in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees Sun afternoon, amid sunny skies
and increasing dewpoints. Moisture return starts out somewhat slow
on Sunday, with PWATs expected to remain around average for this
time of year however, moisture return starts to ramp up on Monday
ahead of an approaching cold front. By Monday evening, the front
will be near our door step, and PWATs will be closer to the 75th
percentile. Overnight Monday into early Tuesday, a small chance of
showers is possible area-wide, as the boundary moves into the region
and provides support for convection.

By sunrise Tuesday this front is expected to be overhead,
potentially bisecting the forecast area, as it becomes increasingly
slowed down due to lack of upper level support. Very small rain
chances continue through Tuesday, generally less than 20%, as this
boundary meanders nearby, while a combination of light variable
winds and partly cloudy skies will bring a mixed bag of
temperatures. Northern areas will likely warm into the low to mid
70s, while along I-10 and near the coast highs will be in the upper
70s to low 80s once again. Slightly drier air may filter down into
CENLA and interior SE TX, but most of the region will remain within
this more humid/moist pattern.

Wednesday through the later half of the week, models diverge a bit,
with the general consensus being the front lifts back north of the
area, opening the door for more moisture return, before potentially
sliding south again later in the week in response to an approaching
upper level shortwave. It doesn`t look like any drier air will
arrive until beyond the end of the long term period, while
temperatures will continue to run above seasonal norms through at
least Thanksgiving.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Clear skies and light Northerly winds will prevail through the taf
period as high pressure becomes centered nearly overhead.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

The high pressure is settling over the region today, causing
winds and seas to diminish. Flow turns more southerly by Saturday
as high pressure moves east of the region. Winds and seas will
slightly elevate again late in the weekend as the next weather
system begins taking shape in the central US.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  37  62  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  44  66  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  42  64  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  44  70  45  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...66