382
FXUS64 KLCH 041215
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
715 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A disturbance along with an abundant amount of moisture will
  keep elevated rain chances in place through the weekend.

- Some of these storms could lead to flash flooding, with a
  Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall in place both today and
  Saturday, areawide.

- Ridging slowly builds overhead next week, allowing moisture
  return and rain chances to level off, while temperatures begin
  to increase into the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

While Edouard has finally dissipated tonight, a moisture rich
atmosphere will remain over the region through the weekend resulting
in more showers and storms along with warm and humid conditions.
After a lull in convection tonight into Friday morning, guidance
depicts another round of showers and storms spreading into the
region by midday today as another easterly wave/upper level
disturbance is forecasted to move along the northern Gulf Coast
and tap into the available moisture overhead. With PWATs
forecasted to remain above the 90th percentile today, many of
these storms will be capable of producing heavy downpours, which
could lead to areas of flash flooding especially over already rain
sodden ground post-Edouard. As a result, a Marginal Risk for
Excessive Rainfall is in place areawide today.

Moving into the weekend, moisture continues to pool overhead on
Saturday with PWATs remain above the 90th percentile for a bit
longer. This aforementioned disturbance is forecasted to move
overhead by Saturday, resulting in another afternoon of scattered
to widespread convection capable of producing localized heavy
downpours. Once again, a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall will
be in place areawide on Saturday to account for this risk. By
Sunday, the disturbance will have dissipated, leaving behind a
more typical amount of moisture with PWATs returning to the
50-75th percentile range. Still, there will be plenty of moisture
to at least get some run of the mill diurnally driven convection
firing off by Sunday afternoon. Overall, coverage should be less
than Fri and Sat with the loss of the disturbance`s support, and
the risk for flash flooding will decrease as well.

Moving into the work week, upper level ridging begins to build down
into the forecast area from the Plains, gradually amplifying
overhead through the mid to later part of the week. This will allow
for more typical daytime heating convection each afternoon, with
chances gradually tapering down through the week and ridging starts
to really take hold. This will gradually shift the focus from hydro
to heat through the end of the forecast, with the need with heat
advisories possibly becoming a concern once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 708 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the remaining morning
hours. VCTS is likely as convective showers and thunderstorms
begin to take hold of building diurnal instability through the
afternoon. Therefore, there is at least a conditional chance of
TSRA and reduced VIS due to weather. Winds outside of TSRA are
expected to be light and variable, while gaining southerly
components through the late afternoon hours.

30

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Light mainly SE to S winds and low seas will prevail through the end
of the week and into the weekend. Scattered convection will continue
to be possible each day as well, as a steady stream of moisture
moves over the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

More rounds of showers and storms are expected through the weekend,
some heavy at times, as moisture continue to pool overhead. MinRH
values will range from the 50 to 70% range each day.

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...30