Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
512 FXUS64 KLCH 121820 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 120 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - A mild and very dry forecast is anticipated through most of the coming week. Expect warm, above average temperature days but with cool fall-feeling evenings. - With low afternoon relative humidity, there will be an elevated risk for grass and marsh fires into the start of the work week. Moisture should start its return late Wednesday into Thursday. - The next chance of rain will be Friday as a weak wave moves over the northwest Gulf. Chances are less than 20 percent, as it depends heavily on moisture return prior to Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 No sweeping changes to the forecast as high pressure, caught between lows situated on west and east US coastlines, moves overhead thru Tuesday. Dry air with lower dewpoints in the mid 50s to around 60F will hang around thru the short term. However, with rising heights, expect daytime high temps to push into the mid to upper 80s each day with little to no cloud cover. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Saturday) Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 To start the long term, deep trof is moving into the northern Rocky Mountains, shunted north by northern moving southeast high pressure ridge, which is also being nudged inland/north by an upper wave moving into the southwest Gulf. High pressure will still remain in control of the forecast Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday, the upper Gulf wave should be absorbed by trof moving into the northern Plains. As the wave moves right overtop the region, a few weak showers, or at least increased cloud cover, should return to the forecast. The upper wave also moves the ridge away from the region, allowing the Plains trof to amplify southward into the cenUS. This could send a cold front down towards the southeast US in response. Now, that`s getting way into the longterm period, so don`t get your hopes up just yet. We will be closely monitoring for any break in this above average heat still ongoing. 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Winds are becoming more variable as high pressure moves overhead. Winds may be elevated/gusty at times due to mixing, but this possibility is too low to include in a prevailing group. Another round of patchy ground fog may be possible through morning hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Wind and sea conditions continue to improve within a dry airmass and as ridging moves right overtop the northwest Gulf Coast region. Winds will vary each day with diurnal influences along the coastline. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Expect dry conditions to prevail with variable, occasionally breezy, winds as high pressure now moves right overhead. Temps will top out in the upper 80s to around 90 each day through the mid week as high pressure remains in control. Weak onshore flow attempt its return early tomorrow, but with rising heights causing aforementioned hot temps and dry airmass in place, expect a prolonged period of low humidities each day. Minimum RH values 25 to 35 percent can be expected through at least Wednesday. Overnight maximum RH values from 75 to 95 percent give indication that moisture will not rebound completely during overnight periods. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 56 87 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 63 87 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 60 86 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 64 87 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11