935
FXUS64 KLCH 301746
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1246 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very hot conditions will persist thru the afternoon and evening
  before storms develope and moving through the area.

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for central LA today where
  maximum Heat Indices will range 105F to 111F.

- Starting this afternoon through the early weekend, increasing
  rain chances are expected as weakness moves overhead and
  boundary stalls in the region.

- Due to airmass of deep tropical moisture in place, daily rain
  chances will bring a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for all
  forecast areas thru Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

RAP 500mb analysis paints high pressure holding on over much of
the area. This has resulted in widespread warming temps in the mid
90s. Increased moisture is moving in from weakness to the east,
and thus, there are widespread HIs in the 100 to 105F range, with
those in cenLA already seeing HIs over 108F.

Weakness continuing to move in from the east is expected to spark
off a round of showers and thunderstorms that will move from
north to south into the northern Gulf this afternoon and evening.
Not anticipating any organized severe risk, but an isolated
damaging wind gust will be possible with any more-intense
thunderstorms.

Conditions will improve from north to south after sundown and with
the passage of storms.

Thursday and Friday are expected to see an increase in
thunderstorm activity from late morning to early evening each day.
This will be due to weakness aloft moving near the region. This
increased cloud cover each day should keep high temps in check;
the mid to upper 90s. Slightly cooler conditions, even with area
moisture, should keep daytime Heat Indices in the 100 to 105F
range. However, outside of thunderstorms and away from cloud
cover, there could be some isolated instances of higher daytime
heat index values.

As always, if you`re outdoors, listen for thunder and if it roars,
go indoors! You`re within distance of a rogue lightning strikes!

Also, due to elevated moisture, these cells could carry very high
rain rates. If you`re caught beneath one that doesn`t move or in
an area where they continue moving overhead, your flooding risks
will increase. Remain weather aware over the coming days.

11

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

A frontal boundary moves into the region over the weekend, further
becoming a focus for daily afternoon thunderstorm activity. The
front lingers into the start of the work week before washing out
by the mid week. Saturday and Sunday carry the highest daytime
rain chances with Monday thru Wednesday seeing a diminishing of
chances each day.

These elevated rain chances keep high temps in check thru the
longterm. Highs should run from the low to mid 90s each day.
Again, there will remain the risk of enhanced daytime heat index
values outside of thunderstorms and away from cloud cover.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

High pressure is breaking down, but remains situated overhead
strongly enough to limit rain chances so far today. As the high
breaks down towards the west, weakness and thunderstorm clusters
are expected to develop and move in from the east. There is low
confidence on placement of where clusters will move or develop,
thus vicinity thunder was included through the earlier afternoon
hours. Guidance places the greatest chance at seeing organized
thunderstorm risk at Lower Acadiana terminals, so tempo groups
were included here.

Otherwise, the convective environment will be monitored and
amendments will be made as the situation warrants.

11

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Upper level weakness moving nearby will bring about scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and
evening. Elevated rain chances over coastal waters will prevail
over the coming days beneath lingering upper level weakness. Winds
and seas will remain low, outside of stronger thunderstorms and
thunderstorm clusters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

High pressure continues to linger over the western half of the
region. Combined with increasing moisture from the east, very hot
and humid conditions are ongoing to the east, very hot and dry
conditions are ongoing to the west. Expect this dry airmass to
diminish through the rest of the day as tropical moisture moves
inland. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop later
this afternoon that will linger into the evening.

Elevated humidity and rain chances will continue over the coming
days as upper level weakness moves nearby.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  97  75  97 /  20  30  10  50
LCH  77  95  78  95 /  30  40  20  50
LFT  76  93  78  94 /  30  60  20  70
BPT  77  95  76  95 /  30  40  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ028-029-031>033-
     143.

TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11