658
FXUS64 KLCH 232326
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
626 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tropical Storm Bertha is now moving into southeast Texas where
  it will dissipate in the coming day or so. This system is
  expected to be asymmetrical with a majority of the impacts
  offshore.

- A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Jefferson County
  through Saint Mary Parish through tonight. Isolated heavy rains
  and some potential storm surge of 1 to 2 feet will also be
  possible, although the threat is winding down.

- The upper level ridge will remain in control beyond the end of
  the work week with limited rain chances and hot conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Tropical Storm Bertha is tracking west along the Louisiana / Texas
Coastline this afternoon. The system is encountering significant
wind shear that has continued to displace convection southwest
from the center of circulation. Scattered showers along the
northern rain bands will gradually diminish toward this evening.
Meanwhile, temperatures are quite warm and when factoring the
humidity, this atmosphere pushes surface heat indices above 100F.
Bertha will continue to skirt the coastline line, later moving
inland Southeast Texas and degrading to a depression overnight
into Friday once tropical storm force winds ease off the western
Gulf. Minor coastal flooding from localized surge effect remains a
threat for the next several hours. However, flooding rain, wind,
and tornado threats are very low or null inland.

Friday, any residual effects of Bertha will be clearing the area.
A few scattered showers are possible through the morning across
Southeast Texas. As per previous forecast, the greater synoptic
environment is spatially dominated by and upper level ridge
extending over the Southern Plains. Realistically, this feature
will build dry air and subsidence back into the region while winds
firm out of the south.

Key takeaway going forward this weekend through the middle of next
week: temperatures are going to climb into the mid to upper 90s.
Humidity does drop to the 45-55% range starting Saturday, but that is
still enough moisture to hedge heat indices above 100F daily. It
is possible heat related headlines will be needed early to middle of
next week for portions of the area.

 Kowalski / 30

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Bertha will continue to exit to the west with showers and patchy
lower ceilings leaving in tandem this evening. Southerly winds
will persist through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Tropical Storm Bertha is crossing the region at this hour.
As a result, winds are progressively turning to the southeast and
south and light showers are ongoing across the region. There is a
low chance of thunderstorms this afternoon as we reach max daytime
heating, but largely these will be scattered and vicinity in nature.

Breezy winds will continue this afternoon before diminishing
tonight. As winds near to calm overnight, areas of ground fog may
develop due to excess moisture in the region.

11

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Tropical Storm Bertha will move west inland Southeast Texas this
evening and weaken considerably overnight through Friday morning as
it moves away. Lingering offshore winds will produce enhanced choppy
waters, though they are expected to ease and abate through Friday
morning. Worth noting, in the short time left over water, strong
currents may also occur as the center passes and winds switch
directions.

A ridge will build in Friday and remain in place through early next
week keeping winds at a general southerly onshore flow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Temperatures will range from the low to upper 90s trending
through the middle of next week with southerly winds being the
prevailing trend. Afternoon minRH drops 40-55% by Saturday and
this will likely be consistent over the next week. Fire weather
concerns are low at this time.

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ430-432-450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...05