740
FXUS64 KLCH 111129
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
629 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An easterly wave/inverted trough feature will continue to move
  west across the northern Gulf into Texas through mid-week
  helping to increase rain chances over the area, especially near
  the seabreeze boundary.

- A surge of deeper more tropical like moisture will move around
  the wave and into eastern portions of forecast area proving a
  risk of excessive rainfall on Tuesday and Wednesday.

- The subtropical ridge from the east will build in at the end of
  the week to provide typical summertime weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Water vapor imagery shows a surge of dry air on the eastern side
of the mid-level trough, which is now centered over the Houston
area. This dry air helped keep convective activity low for most of
the day. But starting on Monday, we will see more rain and
thunderstorms across the region as a surge of tropical moisture
moves in. This surge in moisture can also be seen on GOES WV
imagery and is currently in the northern Gulf, south of Florida.

The impacts from these two systems will combine and create the
generally unstable pattern and will lead to widespread showers and
thunderstorms across the region with PoPs between 60 and 80%
through the middle of the week. This upper-level trough is fairly
robust with winds aloft, at 250 mb, are almost at 50 knots
overhead with a clearly defined center on UA maps. As for weather
hazards, two should be highlighted. The first is the potential for
flash flooding and the second is a setup for damaging downbursts.
For the flash flood threat, PWAT values will quickly rise above 2
inches, putting our PWATs into the 90th percentile for this time
of year. While heavy rain will be possible everywhere, the main
threat area for potential flash flooding remains lower Acadiana
and the Atchafalaya Basin, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) on
Tuesday and Wednesday. With multiple rounds of rain possible
rainfall totals will be around 1 to 3 inches area wide with
locally higher amounts.

The second concern is the possibility of downbursts, especially
on Monday, with CAM soundings indicating a robust signal for
downdrafts with DCAPE values up to 1200 and ML CAPE averaging
between 1500 and 2000 J/kg.

For the first half of the week, temperatures will be in line with
typical summertime temperatures, with highs in the low to mid-90s
and lows in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

The surge of tropical moisture will start to ease up on Thursday
as a subtropical ridge begins to build back into the region,
leading to less widespread rain and more afternoon pop-up showers
and thunderstorms. In addition, we will see temperatures rise a
few degrees, with highs getting back into the upper 90s. During
the night conditions will be muggy with lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected across the
region today and into tonight. This will produce periods of lower
vis and ceilings, but conditions will be mostly VFR. Winds will be
east to southeast during the period, and may gust to around 25
knots in thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

An unsettled weather pattern will lead to widespread showers and
thunderstorms across the coastal waters through mid-week. Winds
and waves will remain light, with winds less than 10 knots and
waves between 1 and 3 feet. Near thunderstorms, winds and waves
will be higher.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

A wet pattern will continue for the first half of the week, with
widespread rain expected across the coast but also possible
farther inland. Minimum RH values will stay above 50% through the
start of the week, with scattered showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon. Winds will be light and variable, around 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  74  92  73 /  50  20  60  20
LCH  92  76  91  76 /  70  40  80  30
LFT  91  76  89  75 /  70  30  80  20
BPT  92  76  91  75 /  60  30  70  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05