008
FXUS64 KLCH 261725
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper level ridge will be near the area today helping to
  bring about slightly lower rain chances for the afternoon
  showers and storms, while the typical summer heat persists with
  max afternoon heat index values from 100 to 105 degrees.

- From the weekend into early next week, the forecast area will
  be between a ridge to the west and trough to the east. Expect
  typical summertime weather with a daily chance of mainly
  afternoon showers and thunderstorms to go along with the usual
  hot and humid conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Radar is as quiet as it has been over the past few days as not
too much in the way of nocturnal shower activity. This may
foretell a less active day as far as showers and storms go.

An upper level ridge has nudged to the west and over the Tennessee
Valley. As the ridge continues to retrograde to the west it will
continue to push deeper moisture off to the west with it being
replaced by some drier and lower PWAT air. Therefore, looking at
lower rain chances for mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
CAMs show activity will be mainly isolated to widely scattered
during max heating and with any seabreeze boundary.

For Friday into the Saturday, the upper level ridge will become
more flat and weaker. With low level southerly flow continuing,
low level moisture and humid conditions will occur. Daytime
heating and seabreeze boundaries should allow for scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms to develop.

Looks like typical summertime heat away from the storms with max
afternoon heat index values expected to range between 100F and
105F degrees.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

For the first part of next week the pattern is setting up in the
low levels with a continuation of the high off the southeast U.S.
coast ridging into the forecast area. This will keep mainly
southerly low level flow keeping around Gulf moisture and humid
conditions.

Meanwhile, in the upper levels, general pattern will see a ridge
to the west of the forecast area and a trough to the east.
Therefore, looks like the usual daily chance of the diurnal and
seabreeze driven showers and storms mainly during the afternoon
hours. Rain chances will slightly higher over eastern portions
closer to the trough and a little lower over southeast Texas as
that area will be closer to the ridge.

Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Isolated convection has begun to develop across SE TX, and may
expand across south LA later this afternoon. Overall, rain chances
are rather low today and most terminals will not see precip,
therefore just kept VCTS in the I-10 tafs for the possibility of
isolated convection. Otherwise, light winds and VFR CIGs/VIS
continue through the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

A surface high off the southeast U.S. coast will continue to ridge
across the northern Gulf and into the coastal through the weekend
into early next week. The result will be mainly light southeast to
south winds and relative low seas. There will be a daily chance of
seeing scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

An upper level ridge will help reduce rain chances today. Despite
this, light southerly flow will bring in low level moisture
keeping things on the humid side with minimum afternoon relative
humidity values around 50 across upper southeast Texas as well as
central Louisiana and around 60 percent along the I-10 corridor
to the coast. Mainly typical summertime pattern into the weekend
with a daily chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to go
along with hot and humid days and muggy nights.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  94  73  94 /  10  20  10  20
LCH  75  91  76  91 /  10  20  10  40
LFT  74  91  74  91 /  10  40  10  60
BPT  75  91  75  91 /   0  20  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...17