Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
127 FXUS64 KLCH 081145 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 645 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - An upper level high and dry air aloft will prevail across the region for the remainder of the week through the weekend into early next week. This will keep any significant shower activity form developing. - A surface cold front will move across by Thursday bringing a dry continental air mass into the region with the air mass lingering into the weekend. The result will be lower humidity and cooler night time lows. - With the potential for breezy northeast winds, dry antecedent conditions, and low afternoon relative humidity, there will be an elevated risk for grass and marsh fires on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 A pre-frontal trough will move across the region today as high pressure ridges down from the southeast US. This will just provide a wind shift with a more predominate northeast flow. Upper level ridging and dry air aloft will preclude any significant shower activity. By Thursday, upper level ridging will be centered over Texas with an upper level trough digging down into the southeast US. The increasing northerly flow will help push a weak surface cold front across the forecast area. Behind the front, a dry continental air mass will filter in lowering humidity values. Also, a bit of a northeast breeze will also be noted as a rather strong high pressure over the Great Lakes builds down into the forecast area. Upper level ridging and dry air aloft will keep any rain chances out of the forecast. In the dry air mass with good solar heating, air temperatures will be quite warm during the afternoon with above normal readings, although less humidity will make it more tolerable. With clear skies at night, air temperatures should take a good drop with rather cool and comfortable readings. Rua && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 The air mass will modify over the weekend into early next week as surface high pressure to the north weakens and lower pressure will be noted east of the Rockies allowing for southerly winds to return by Sunday. This will help bring back low level moisture and humidity that will allow for higher nighttime lows and more of the same above normal daytime highs, albeit with more humid conditions. Despite the increase in low level moisture, upper level ridging along with dry air in the mid levels, will remain over the forecast area and this should keep any significant shower activity from forming. Rua && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the morning TAF period across all terminals. Winds are forecast to pickup out the NNE this late this morning with some periodic gusts around 15kts. Frontal boundary this evening will reinforce dry, mainly clear surface to low level conditions overnight into 09th/AM. 30 && .MARINE... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Light to modest winds from the northeast today as weak surface high pressure ridging across the Gulf coast states will build into the coastal waters. The offshore winds along with seas will increase by Thursday as a cold front moves into the coastal waters with the potential for a small craft advisory for a portion of the coastal waters. Offshore winds will remain elevated through Friday before decreasing over the weekend as surface high pressure settles over the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 A prefrontal trough will move across on Wednesday with winds becoming more from the northeast bringing slightly drier air into the region with minimum afternoon relative humidity values in the 50 to 55 percent range. A cold front will move across on Thursday that will increase the northeast winds and bring even drier air into the region with afternoon minimum relative humidity values in the 40 to 50 percent range. An upper level high and dry air aloft will help keep rain chances very low with no significant rainfall amounts. With the dry conditions and increasing northeast winds, an elevated fire danger will be possible during the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 87 63 85 56 / 10 0 0 0 LCH 90 71 87 63 / 10 10 0 0 LFT 90 70 88 63 / 10 10 0 0 BPT 90 71 88 64 / 10 10 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...30