Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
272 FXUS64 KLCH 140623 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 123 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - A weakness moving overhead and area moisture will keep scattered rain and storm chances in the forecast today and tomorrow. - Tropical wave will move into southeast Texas Saturday. Heavy downpours are likely in any rain cells that develop Friday and Saturday. Otherwise, no tropical impacts. - A subtropical ridge will build across the Gulf toward the end of the week, dropping precip chances and allowing for higher temps. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 120 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Wash, rinse and repeat. That`s the forecast for at least today as weakness lingers over our area. Daytime heating and area humidity should set the stage once again for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Not expecting a widespread smattering of rainfall, there will be areas which remain dry, similar to today. High pressure ridges in from the east starting Friday as upper level trof moves overhead. While sfc high will attempt to limit rain chances, upper support and area moisture will allow for scattered convection once again. By Saturday, increasing heights overhead will help to dry out the column and limit most daytime rain chances. Best chances will be found in coastal areas along the seabreeze. A minor warming trend will develop hand-in-hand with the approaching ridge. Temps in the lower 90s today will push into the low to mid 90s by Saturday. Heat indices should range in the 100 to 106F range. As a cursory nod to area highlighted for tropical development in the southwest Gulf... Shear generated by developing high pressure ridge will keep the wave at bay as it rides northwest into southeast Texas on Saturday. High pressure also acts to keep this wave very tightly contained, and thus its area of influence should remain contained to south and southeast Texas. Usually we will see a big slug of moisture move into our region with these waves, but any "moisture plume" generated by this feature should, again, remain contained within a small area of Texas into the weekend. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 120 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 For the long term, expect some variation in convective coverage day to day as the high meanders around the southeast US and as upper pressure fields relax. Isolated to widely scattered summertime storms will be the name of the game each day. As afternoon school time activities return to the norm, always be mindful of area storms. If you hear thunder, you are within the range of lightning striking. Outside of thunderstorms, be very mindful of the heat! Temps will push into the mid to upper 90s with heat indices likely running in the 103 to 107F range each day. 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 120 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 A few scattered diurnally driven storms continue to meander over the region. These will come to a close after sundown. Expect much of the same on Thursday with primarily southwest winds and isolated showers and thunderstorms during daytime hours. Winds should mix similar to today resulting in occasionally gusty gradient type winds. This mixed environment will also keep CIGs in the MVFR range. Another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected during daytime hours Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 120 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Expect somewhat typical diurnal convective activity over the next several days as weakness dissipates today and high pressure ridges in from the east. Saturday, a tropical wave will be moving up the east coast of Texas. A localized increase in winds and seas from the west will be possible as it moves through the region. However, the wave is expected to be too weak to bring about Small Craft Advisory criteria. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 120 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible again Thursday as weakness lingers over the region primed with humid airmass and hot temperatures. High pressure starts ridging in from the east on Friday and Saturday which should lower afternoon rain chances a bit each day. Daytime minimum RH values will hover in the 50 to 60 percent range Thursday and Friday before dropping slightly Saturday with increasing high pressure. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 93 73 96 73 / 60 20 50 10 LCH 92 78 93 77 / 60 10 60 10 LFT 91 77 92 76 / 60 10 60 0 BPT 92 77 93 77 / 60 20 60 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11