614
FXUS64 KLCH 201138
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
638 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms return today. While the overall threat is
  very low, severe weather and minor flooding will be possible.

- An unsettled weather pattern continues through the upcoming
  week, with isolated to scattered showers and storms each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

A larger thunderstorm complex is moving through central TX as a
result of a frontal boundary in that area. Some light showers are
moving across SETX and CenLA right outside of our CWA, however we
can expect an uptick in showers and storms as the boundary
approaches out of the west. Southerly to southeasterly winds have
remained elevated through the night as they will going through the
rest of the day thanks to the tightened pressure gradient. This
will bear watching with forecast wind speeds nearing the lower end
of the criteria for a Wind Advisory. Outside of elevated gradient
winds, there is a low end potential for all modes of severe
weather and minor flooding, especially across interior SETX and
CenLA.

The cold front will near the Gulf Coast before slowing and
eventually becoming quasistationary tonight into Monday. By
Tuesday, the front will begin to lift northward as a warm front.
While max temperatures will be slightly reduced for a slim
portion of the area on Monday, this will be very short lived.
Overall both temps and dewpoints will be uncomfortably high.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

The stalled boundary by the beginning of the long term will begin
to retrograde northward while still serving as a focus for
showers and storms in the CWA. There will be no lack of moisture
as southerly flow prevails through nearly the entire long term.
Aloft, flow will be mostly zonal, with a few impulses moving
through to assist with near daily rain chances. Activity will
remain isolated to scattered at best, with the higher PoPs
expected to be limited to the northern half of the CWA. Temps
through the term will remain higher than climo norms, especially
overnight as cloud cover will limit overnight cooling.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

A tightened pressure gradient has allowed for elevated sustained
and gusty winds to carry on through the overnight hours. This will
continue going into tonight sans any thunderstorm wind gusts. A
frontal boundary currently stretched across central TX will slowly
make it`s way eastward. In response, showers will spread across
the area from west to east. There will be two waves, however
certainty in timing is low. The first wave is expected this
morning to into afternoon, before a lull in activity, then another
wave tonight into tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Winds and seas will come down through the rest of the day as the
pressure gradient loosens. A frontal boundary will come near
however it will not make it through the land zones, much less the
marine zones. The boundary will assist in bringing some isolated
to scattered showers and storms to all marine zones.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  66  80  65 /  50  50  80  30
LCH  83  70  83  68 /  30  30  60  20
LFT  84  70  85  69 /  20  10  60  20
BPT  83  69  83  69 /  50  50  70  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ450-452-
     455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ470-
     472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87