768
FXUS64 KLCH 230551
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1151 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper level disturbance and a surface low will combine to
  produce widespread showers and a few thunderstorms which will
  bring a cold soaking rain, through Sunday afternoon.

- Dry conditions are expected early to mid week with rather warm
  temperatures.

- Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1024 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Widespread light to moderate stratiform rainfall is ongoing across
all of Louisiana. Expect more of this overnight as low to the
south sends waves of precipitation into the region through the
morning. Rainfall will end from west to east Sunday with the low
moving east of the area.

No changes were needed to the inherited grids package.

11/Calhoun

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 213 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Light patchy rainfall will continue for the rest of today and
into the night as a weak low travels to the east in the Gulf. The
main impacts from this system will be to Mariners as the deepening
low lead to increased wind speeds, heavy rain and thunderstorms.
On land we will stay north of the warm front, meaning that all of
our convection will remain elevated. With LCL heights expected to
remain above 500 m our severe threat is going to stay limited.
There is a remote possibility that small hail could form in some
of the stronger storms but the chance for severe hail (1 inch or
more) is close to zero. For the rest of today and tonight we can
expect overcast skies and light to moderate rain. By Sunday
afternoon the low will be to our east and skies will begin to
clear.

High pressure will start to build and will lead to a steady warm
up and benign weather pattern. This pattern will continue through
the middle of the week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 213 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

The extended forecast will be on the benign side as high pressure
starts to build over the region. The high will lead to a steady
warm up with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s by Wednesday.
Between Wednesday night and Thursday morning a weak cold front
will move through the region. Moisture returns don`t look
impressive before the front arrives so we precipitation will be
sparse.

Behind the front, temperatures are expected to be near seasonal
norms to end the week and the month.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Different categories can be found across the CWA as a result of
varying CIGs Lowering is expected over the overnight and early
morning hours. Light to moderate showers are widespread, with some
tapering further east across SETX. Another round of showers and
isolated storms will move into the area tomorrow morning. From
west to east, this will taper off tomorrow afternoon to evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 213 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Low pressure offshore is producing choppy seas and gusty winds.
The latest ASCAT pass shows winds around 20 to 25 knots in the
outer coastal waters with waves between 4 and 6 feet. Through the
night conditions will worsen as the low deepens and moves closer
to the Louisiana shore. With waves building another 1 to 2 feet.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
night and into Sunday.

By Sunday evening the low will be moving towards Florida and
conditions will improve. To start the week, we will see steady
onshore flow around 5 to 10 knots with combined seas less than 4
feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  51  39  49  39 /  20  70  90   0
LCH  48  41  52  44 /  70  90  90   0
LFT  53  43  53  45 /  30  90 100  20
BPT  49  41  54  44 /  70  90  80   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for GMZ470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...87