Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
375 FXUS64 KLCH 091131 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 631 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Typical summer weather for the weekend with hot and humid conditions along with hit or miss mainly afternoon thunderstorms. - A weak disturbance will move across on Monday with a probability of more widespread showers and thunderstorms. - Lower rain chances are expected toward the middle to end of next week along with an increase in heat risk as an upper level high builds across the region. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1252 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026 Wx map currently has a slack surface ridge of high pressure lingering over the Gulf Coast. This ridge has helped usher in moisture from the Gulf / Atlantic waters throughout the entire tropospheric column. the/00Z upper analysis reveals PWATS bordering the the Percentile. General consensus amongst Hi-res guidance suggests another healthy scattered round of showers / storms building during the late morning through the late afternoon hours. After sunset with the diurnal driven component of instability diminished, this activity will quickly wane into the overnight hours. A weakness in the upper level ridge appears on Monday indicating a localized coastal trough may develop and lift inland throughout the day. Therefore, do expect more widely scattered thundershowers. Worth noting due to high PWATs and low up shear Corfidi vectors, some storms may be stagnant and produce 2-3"/hr rainfall rates which may cause some nuisance flooding along common roadways. Despite being in a summer pattern where flooding is less expected, slow moving storms with plenty of instability can induce very localized, but hazardous flooding. Temperatures are mostly a copy and paste forecast as this wet pattern remains into Tuesday. Less activity is expected, however, as the coastal trough weakens and is pulled east. Wednesday onward a subtropical ridge begins to strengthen from the west and quickly envelops the Southern Plains through the rest of the forecast period. Chances of rainfall fall off the forecast board given expected midlevel subsidence, however, surfaces may remain quite humid depending antecedent rainfall. Main concern during the latter half of the upcoming week will be very warm / hot conditions that could lead to heat related fatigue / illnesses without proper hydration or breaks sheltering away from direct sun / heat. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026 After sunrise the fog will start to fade away with VFR conditions across the region. Stating around noon showers and thunderstorms will begin to form across the I-10 corridor with VCTS during the afternoon. Conditions near the showers and storms will be MVFR/IFR. Outside of convection conditons will be VFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 1252 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026 Mainly light southerly to southeasterly winds with low seas are expected to continue into at least the middle of next week as a surface high pressure system ridges across the northern Gulf. There will be a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms through Tues as a weak coastal trough skirts along the northern Gulf waters. The best chance of seeing activity is favored closer to shore during the afternoon hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1252 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026 Hit or miss showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly in the afternoon, again Sunday. Widespread significant rainfall is not expected and this will likely allow the overall antecedent conditions to become drier with an increase in the KBDI. With low level Gulf moisture from mainly southerly winds, minimum afternoon relative humidity values are expected to range from 50 to 60 percent. A brief surge in moisture and a weak disturbance will bring the possibility of widespread rainfall on Monday with minimum afternoon relative humidity values in the 60 to 70 percent range. Conditions look to dry out late Tuesday through the rest of the forecast period. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30 AVIATION...14