072
FXUS64 KLCH 050503
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1203 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions will persist through Saturday with
  heat index values ranging from near 100 to 106.

- A few showers and thunderstorms will pop up sporadically mainly
  around the Atchafalaya basin each afternoon through Saturday.

- Precipitation chances increase Sunday through mid week as a weak
  frontal boundary along with a couple of upper level disturbances
  move through the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

A few, very isolated showers, noted on radar this afternoon around
the Atchafalaya basin which is closer to troffing over the
Northeastern gulf. Ridging building into the region from south
Texas will aid in keeping precipitation very limited to non
existent elsewhere across the region with any ongoing convection
diminishing by around sunset. The building ridge will keep PoPs
limited to 30% or less across the region Thursday through
Saturday while also allowing heat indices to climb above 100
each afternoon. Forecast values are presently just below heat
advisory criteria and an advisory for parts of central Louisiana
and interior SE Texas could become necessary if models trend
warmer in subsequent forecast packages. Overnight lows will only
fall back into the mid to upper 70s offering little relief from
early summer heat.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

A weak frontal boundary and deep moisture will stall across the
region Sunday afternoon providing a source of lift for increasing
thunderstorms. This will be followed by at least two upper level
disturbances wrapping around the broader upper trof over the
central U.S. which will keep precipitation chances elevated Monday
through the middle of next week. The overcast skies and rain will
hold afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Relatively calm night with isolated light showers over parts of TX
tapering out of the area and light patchy fog. Additional areas
of fog are not out of the realm of possibility overnight, however
with low confidence in location, reduced VIS not in TAFs at this
time. Whatever fog does form will be quick to burn off after
sunrise. Tomorrow afternoon will be more of the same with widely
isolated diurnal showers and storms, however confidence in
location is low.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Light to occasionally modest onshore flow and low seas will
persist through the middle of next week. A few showers and
thunderstorms will pop up sporadically through the day Friday and
Saturday with higher rain chances expected beginning Sunday
through the middle of the week as a couple of upper level
disturbances move across the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  94  74  95 /   0  10   0  20
LCH  75  90  77  91 /   0  20   0  20
LFT  74  91  76  92 /   0  30   0  40
BPT  75  92  77  92 /   0  20   0  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...87