Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
519 FXUS64 KLCH 031146 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 646 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Some drier air will move into the area for today and Monday with lower rain chances, however, the lower humidity will help keep the heat risk in check with no heat advisories planned at this time. - Go out and enjoy your Sunday with climatologically normal temps and less-humid conditions. - By mid week the forecast area will be between an upper level ridge centered over the southwest U.S. and the subtropical ridge to the east. This is expected to bring rather typical summertime conditions with a chance for scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Northerly flow has driven the frontal boundary offshore, shutting off rain chances for much of us. However, during daytime heating today, we could see another scattering of showers and isolated thunderstorms today. With midlevel high pressure influence, and the front`s off-shore-ness, not expecting very much in the way of convection today. Those beneath showers or storms will likely see what we have in previous days: very heavy rainfall causing some gusty winds and frequent lightning. This should result in another climo-normal day as far as temperatures go. Highs in the low to mid 90s. Upper trof is set to move down into the eastern southeast states into Monday, further keeping the front limited to northern Gulf waters. Combined with low to mid level high pressure developing to the west, the "train tracks" of mid day convection should shift over to east LA and central MS to end the short term. Those of us in coastal areas and within extreme central and south-central LA could see afternoon PoPs Monday with another day with highs in the lower 90s. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Trof remains east of the region into the midweek. High developing to the west will keep a similar forecast in the run for much of the remaining work week: low rain chances for Texas counties with increasing PoPs towards the east and at the coastlines. As heights increase from the west, expect a heating trend to return from west to east (highest highs in west areas, lower to the east thanks to area rainfall.) A return to highs in the mid to upper 90s is possible for those north and west, highs topping in the lower 90s towards the coastline. 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Areas of low clouds across LFT and ARA are expected to mix out soon with diurnal. The remainder of the morning hours will trend toward VFR for all TAF sites. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible during the mid afternoon hours which may offer temporary reductions. 30 && .MARINE... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 With boundary situated over coastal waters, expect elevated rain chances to persist in the evenings and overnight hours. A trof moves into the northeast Gulf which will keep elevated rain chances for coastal waters into majority of the next work week. Outside of nearby showers and thunderstorms, wind and seas are forecast to remain low and offshore through the forecast time frame. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Northerly flow will persist with a fetch of drier air filtering down from the northwest. Another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible today but primarily along and south of the I-10 corridor due to boundary being confined to this corridor. North of this corridor should remain dry but with moisture still in place. Minimum RH values today into the start of the work week will vary in the 40 to 70 percent range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 91 68 93 70 / 0 0 10 10 LCH 90 73 93 74 / 30 10 20 20 LFT 90 73 92 74 / 20 10 30 20 BPT 90 73 93 74 / 30 10 30 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...30