Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
223 FXUS64 KLCH 181755 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1255 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - High pressure meandering around the region will bring about periods of on and off scattered showers and storms. - Tropical airmass in the region will cause any storms to be efficient rain-makers. This has resulted in a Marginal Risk of flash flood potential for the area today. - Away from rainfall and clouds, temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 90s with Heat Indices ranging 103 to 107F. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Weak surface ridging remains in place through tonight with gradual dissipation as upper level troughing deepens offshore along the northern Gulf. This pattern will allow daily isolated to scattered thundershowers to develop while chances favor offshore and along southern portions of the forecast area through Wednesday night. Temperatures will range roughly 3-5F above climatological norms trending in the mid to upper 90`s for interior locations. Areas north of the I-10 corridor, where diurnal marine layer intrudes less influence, will likely see heat indices push toward advisory criteria tomorrow factoring in the humidity. Regardless, these conditions will warrant caution to be taken during outdoor physical activity throughout late mornings to early evenings. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Sunday) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 By Thursday, an upper level ridge will strengthen and expand across the Four Corners region while dry continental air surges south across the Southern Plains. The dry / warm airmass meeting the subtropical humid airmass along the northern Gulf Coast will lead to greater moisture convergence. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop across the forecast area in greater spread and frequency. This is forecast to slow southward motion and stall along the coast providing ample opportunities for moisture convergence leading to widespread shower and storm through Saturday before drier air behind the boundary begins to mix as this features wains along the coast through the remainder of the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing within the vicinities of most TAF sites across the forecast area. While most of the 6 hr TAF period should remain VFR ceilings, periodic WX and VIS deterioration is likely within pulse summertime thundershowers with primary motion out of the NE. Conditions expected to gradually improve this evening with loss of diurnal heating. 30 && .MARINE... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Outside of thunderstorms, winds and seas will remain low over the period as weak high pressure meanders over the region. Periods of on and off showers and storms will also follow the regime of variable pressure with greater coverage expected through the latter half of the work week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will be possible in the coming days as high pressure meanders around the region. Expect a decent amount of mixing each day with highs in the mid to upper 90s bringing about daily minimum RH values in the 45 to 55 percent range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 72 97 73 97 / 30 20 10 40 LCH 74 94 77 95 / 40 50 20 50 LFT 74 94 75 94 / 50 50 10 40 BPT 74 93 76 95 / 40 60 20 50 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...30