844
FXUS64 KLCH 101117
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
617 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mild conditions are anticipated through this weekend and
  into next week as high pressure remains in place.

- With the potential for breezy northeast winds, dry antecedent
  conditions, and low afternoon relative humidity, there will be
  an elevated risk for grass and marsh fires today through the
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Surface analysis shows yesterday`s front now well offshore, while a
large high pressure ridge dominates much of the eastern CONUS
extending from New England to the Gulf Coast.  Aloft, ridging
centered over TX extends north across the Rockies/Plains with a dry
NWrly flow overhead. A drier airmass has slowly filtered into the
forecast area over the last 12-18 hours post-frontal passage, and
should continue to do so overnight. Dry and mild conditions will
prevail through the weekend, with daytime highs in the mid to upper
80s and overnight lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s, amid clear skies.

Biggest concern through the short term will be the combo of low
relative humidity values and breezy winds which together could lead
to fire danger, particularly today when winds will be a bit stronger
vs Sat/Sun. RH values are forecasted to fall as low as the upper
20s/low 30s this afternoon, while the next couple of days min RH
values will be closer to the mid 30s/mid 40s. Burning should be
avoided everywhere over the next few days due to these elevated fire
weather conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Moving into the work week, more dry and warm weather is on the way
as the synoptic pattern refuses to break. Aloft, ridging over the
Plains/MS Valley briefly weakens late Sun into Mon before
strengthening overhead once again Tues through the end of the
forecast period. This will keep a cap on any convection potential
and a dry airmass aloft overhead. At the surface, high pressure
meanders around the SErn US through the period, and while brief
periods of onshore flow are expected Mon-Thurs they won`t really be
enough to bring back any significant moisture (thankfully). Any
moisture return will be more so felt in daytime highs/overnight lows
which will generally run in the upper 80s/low 90s and low to mid
60s, respectively.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

A dry air mass will be found over the forecast area during the
period. This will allow for mostly clear skies and VFR conditions.
Winds will be from the northeast around 10 knots or less.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 613 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

A small craft advisory remains in effect through 1PM as breezy
offshore winds in the wake of yesterday`s cold front continue for
a bit longer, along with wave heights near 3-6 feet. Conditions
will improve this afternoon through the weekend as high pressure
settles over the southeastern US.

 &&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 613 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

An increased risk of wildfires will exist once again this
afternoon as drier air continues to work into the area on breezy
northerly winds. This will drop afternoon RH Values to between
25-30%, particularly across the western two-thirds of the region.
Further east, along and east of I-49, min RH values will be closer
to the 40-50% range this afternoon. While winds will relax this
weekend, dry conditions will continue to prevail with no rain in
forecast for the foreseeable future. Some parishes and counties
have already issued burn bans in response to developing drought
conditions across the region, but burning is discouraged
everywhere across the region through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  83  57  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  85  62  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  85  61  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  88  62  87  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...07