977
FXUS64 KLCH 311034
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
434 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 421 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Initial frontal boundary currently extends from approximately
Meridian MS to Morgan City LA. Along and behind this front,
broken lines of convection continue to push east across south
central LA and over the eastern coastal waters zones. The boundary
marks a temperature difference that ranges from the upper 60/near
70 across SE LA to the lower 50s across SE TX.

Surface analysis shows a secondary front to the NW across
N/central TX, nearly co-located beneath the mid/upper low system
traversing OK and the Red River Valley.

No hazard headlines to assess this morning as conditions should
stay generally benign in the wake of the front. However, here are
some key messages for the upcoming forecast period:

- Dry weather will prevail through the weekend and into early next
  week
- Highs will be a few degrees above normal with lows near
  seasonal normals the next few days
- A strong warming trend will develop by late in the weekend and
  persist into next week with temperatures running 15 to 20
  degrees above normal

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 421 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Convection will exit to the east across the lower Atchafalaya
Basin early this morning, with cloud cover gradually diminishing
through the day as drier air filters into the area. The mid/upper
low over OK will cross the lower MS Valley today, with its
attendant secondary frontal boundary swinging through the area.
This front will usher in much lower dewpoints and slightly cooler
air into the region. However, with this airmass being more Pacific
in origin (rather than Canadian/Polar), the cooldown will not be
dramatic and high temperatures today are actually still expected
to be slightly above our typical late January normals with values
in the upper 60s to around 70 (compared to lower to middle 60s per
climo).

By tonight, the upper level system will accelerate toward the east
coast, with a fairly benign zonal flow developing over the region.
Beneath clear skies, the center of surface high pressure is
expected to settle over the area resulting in light winds. This
will facilitate radiational cooling, with lows expected to fall
into the lower to middle 40s. Saturday should be a very nice day
as the surface high transits the region, with mostly sunny skies
and temps again reaching the upper 60s/near 70.

The high will scoot east of the region Saturday night into Sunday,
and this will herald a warming trend that will persist into the
long term as southerly winds return warm and moist Gulf air back
over the region. Dry weather is expected to prevail.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 421 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

There will be little change in the synoptic pattern aloft through
the week. Midlevel ridging will develop over the eastern Gulf,
with deepening southerly flow on its western flank advecting
increasing moisture over the region. PWATs are progged to climb
from around an inch on Monday to roughly 1.4 to 1.6 inches by
midweek, which is above the 90th percentile per SPC sounding
climatology. Despite the late spring/early summer moisture
profiles, forcing for any organized convection will be minimal.
A few shallow warm and moist advection showers could be possible
during the daytime by Tuesday, with very low diurnal chances on
Wednesday and Thursday as a weak area of low pressure aloft over S
TX begins to eject northeast.

More notable will be the abnormally warm temperatures across the
area through the week. The surface pattern will remain intact
through the week, as any potential frontal incursions will stay
north of the area. Thus, warm and humid southerly winds will
persist through the period. Expect daily high temperatures in the
upper 70s/near 80 and lows in the lower to middle 60s each night.
By comparison, our normal high temperatures for this time of year
should be in the low to middle 60s. A quick examination of record
high temps for our local climate sites indicates that temperatures
may fall just shy of record levels, although a few spots will be
close, on the 5th or 6th. Record highs are as follows:

SITE     2/52/62/7
Lake Charles80 (1957)80 (1969)87 (1904)
Beaumont82 (1921)80 (1969)87 (1918)
Lafayette80 (1921)81 (1957)87 (1957)
Alexandria      84 (1957)80 (1950)83 (2017)
New Iberia 79 (2008)79 (1950)84 (1957)

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)

MVFR visibilities and ceilings to prevail this evening, gradually
lowering to IFR overnight. Radar showing two distinct areas of
SHRA/TSRA, one between AEX and LCH, and the most westerly line
just west of BPT. Tried to time the best chances for SHRA/TSRA in
this evening`s TEMPO groups, but being two distinct areas, may see
improved conditons between the two. Most of the precipitation
expected to move east of LFT/ARA by 06z. Southerly winds around
15-18 kts with gusts 25 to 30 kts this afternoon expected to diminish
as the pressure gradient relaxes this evening and overnight.
Chance of LIFR visibility/ceilings at BPT/LCH due to intermittent
marine fog issues. By 12-14z, west southwesterly winds around 8-10
kts expected to usher drier air at the surface with visibilities
and ceilings lifting. Westerly winds to increase around 15 kts
with gusts near 25 kts by 18z.

08/DML

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 421 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will gradually exit to
the east this morning as drier air filters into the region behind
a cold front. Westerly winds can be expected today, briefly
strengthening before subsiding by this evening. Small craft
exercise caution headlines have been inserted over the outer
waters for late morning through the afternoon due to these
elevated winds.

Otherwise, light to moderate northwest winds will develop tonight
and veer around to the northeast then east on Saturday as high
pressure crosses the region. Onshore flow will resume by Saturday
night into Sunday and persist through the week. This will lead to
favorable conditions for dense marine fog to develop through much
of the week. Rain chances will be minimal.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  66  42  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  67  45  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  70  46  69  46 /  10   0   0   0
BPT  69  45  69  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...08