Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
357 FXUS64 KLCH 190546 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1246 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - A weak upper level ridge aloft and northerly flow will bring about hot and humid conditions through Wednesday with late in the afternoon thunderstorms which may bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. - A trough will move into the forecast area on Thursday and linger into Friday bringing a decent chance for thunderstorms. With the expected high moisture content of the atmosphere heavy rainfall will be possible. - A building high pressure system over the Mountain West is expected to bring a dry northwest flow into the forecast area over the weekend with lower rain chances and less humid conditions. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday night) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Convection for today has finally diminished leaving behind a worked over environment. Likely any nocturnal activity that forms tonight will be with an enhanced land breeze offshore and activity will stay offshore. For Today into Wednesday, a weak upper level ridge is expected to be in place with northerly flow above the surface. Meanwhile, decent Gulf moisture will be trapped below the ridge with PWAT in the 1.8 to 2.0 inch range and dew points in the mid 70s. With the northerly flow keeping seabreeze near the coast and some ridging aloft, expect any shower and storm activity will again start later in the afternoon and linger into early evening. That may allow storms to become a little robust with gusty winds the main concern. Looking at the heat risk, air temperatures and dew points are expected to be similar as they were on Monday. Therefore, heat index readings in the afternoon before convection begins will range from 103F to 107F and thus will not have a heat advisory out. On Thursday, enhanced northerly flow between an upper level ridge over the Mountain West and the outer cyclonic flow from Erin off the Mid-Atlantic coast, will push a trough into the forecast area. High moisture content is expected to pool ahead and along the trough with PWAT around 2.25 inches and over the 90th percentile. Therefore, expect a good chance for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and with the high moisture content, some torrential downpours will be possible. With the expected cloud cover and convection, heat risk is expected to be kept in check. Rua && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 An upper level trough is expected to be across the forecast area on Friday with some reflection of it at the surface. Good moisture will be hanging around with PWAT over 2 inches so expected a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, and with the cloud cover and convection, heat risk is expected to be kept in check. There are indications that high pressure system over the Mountain West with strengthen with a general long wave trough along the eastern U.S. wake of Erin over the weekend. This is expected to strengthen the northerly flow over the forecast area that will bring in drier air. The result will be lower rain chances and less humid conditions. Rua && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Convection is finally diminishing across the forecast area with just some light rain left at KBPT. Mainly fair conditions expected overnight with VFR, although there is an outside chance of some patchy fog toward sunrise that may briefly bring about visibility restrictions. On Tuesday, there will be a slight chance of showers and storms late in the afternoon so will have VCSH after 19/20z. Away from the convection, VFR conditions with light winds are expected. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 A weak pressure pattern will be found over the northwest Gulf for the next few days. This will bring about light and variable winds along with low seas. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms during the late night and early morning period then again late in the afternoon. A trough will move toward the coast from the north on Thursday increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms during any time of day. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 A hot and humid air mass will continue over the region through Wednesday. This will bring about afternoon heat index values around 105 degrees and minimum relative humidity values over 50 percent. There will also be a chance for late afternoon thunderstorms. Rain chances will increase on Thursday as a trough moves into the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 96 74 97 73 / 20 10 50 40 LCH 94 76 95 75 / 30 20 60 40 LFT 94 76 95 75 / 30 20 40 30 BPT 93 76 95 74 / 40 20 60 50 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...07