Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
030 FXUS64 KLCH 161059 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 559 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A few stray showers or an isolated thunderstorm are possible late this afternoon and Friday as upper level troughing continues to pull away from the area. - High pressure building into the region through early next week will keep precipitation chances negligible Saturday onward while lifting afternoon highs toward the mid to upper 90s with afternoon heat indices between 102-110. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Wx map paints a relatively quiet forecast in terms of active weather. As high pressure continues to build in through the end of the week, subsidence aloft will generate warming in the lower troposphere capping growth of most cumulus before they can develop into larger storm clusters. The focus of this forecast package shifts away from excessive precipitation concerns to summer time heat impacts. That said, typical summertime seabreeze convection over isolated locations may offer a brief passing shower in the afternoon today and Friday. Our northern Jet is currently striated over the upper 48, holding organized weather features well away from Southeast Tx and Southwest. Louisiana. Overall, much of the area is progged to remain dry, however. Highs will build to the low 90s. Once factoring the dewpoints, heat indices will exceed 100F. Thus, those working long periods of outdoors or facilitating activities are encourage to allow for frequent breaks, shade, and hydration. While afternoon RH will begin to lower into the weekend, high pressure is forecast to build across the Southern Plains and western Gulf waters. There is a slow rising trend of daily max temperatures into the upper 90s and low 100s toward the beginning of the next work week. Therefore, basis latest ensemble trends heat headlines may be posted toward this period where criteria is met. Precipitation chances continue to remain null Monday through Wednesday next week while surface high pressure begins to show signs of broadening and breaking down. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 557 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Mostly VFR conditions are anticipated through the period, however patchy MVFR ceilings will be possible this morning. Isolated storms may occur this afternoon which could produce brief lower vis and ceilings. Winds will be light and generally south. && .MARINE... Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Light southerly flow and low seas are expected to continue through the week as weak surface high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf. Mainly dry conditions expected to prevail today through the end of the forecast period as high pressure builds overhead. Winds and seas will be higher near thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Light south / southwest winds will prevail through the week and weekend keeping dewpoints in the 70s and minimum relative humidity in the 55 to 65 percent range. Ridging will build across the northern gulf today through early next week dropping precipitation chances to near zero. While this drier airmass will lower afternoon RH toward 40-50% early next week, no significant fire weather concerns are expected. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30 AVIATION...05