663
FXUS64 KLCH 231727
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1127 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper level disturbance and a surface low will combine to
  continue to produce widespread showers and a few thunderstorms,
  which will bring a cold soaking rain, through this afternoon. An
  additional 1 to 2 inches of rain, mainly east of the Sabine
  Basin will be possible.

- Dry conditions are expected early to mid week with rather warm
  temperatures.

- A weak cold front will move across early Thursday bringing
  temperatures to normal seasonal values for the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Latest water vapor imagery shows a vort max and upper level trough
moving east out of central Texas. Modest southwest flow ahead of
this system is bringing in plenty of moisture with latest LAPS
analysis showing PWAT values between 1.2 and 1.4 inches across the
forecast area, which is over the 75th percentile on the low end
and around the 90th percentile on the high end, with mean layer
relative humidity over 90 percent. As this moisture over-rides a
cooler surface layer, a shield of light to moderate rain is being
produced across the forecast area.

The southwest flow is also helping to produce deep mid level shear
and with cooler temperatures from the vort max approaching, upper
level instability and favorable mid level lapse rates that a few
thunderstorms are mixing in with the rain shield, and these storms
will help produce some heavier rainfall. A surface low about 80 to
100 miles south of the southeast Texas coast is also helping to
provide lift and low level convergence to aid in shower
development.

The upper level trough and surface low will move east across the
region today. The surface low is expected to stay offshore and
that will reduce any severe thunderstorm potential, with any risk
being from possible small hail with the elevated storms. Another 1
to 2 inches of rain will be possible, mainly east of the Sabine
Basin through the afternoon. Once again, rainfall rates are
expected to stay below what would cause flash flooding.

Shower activity will end during the morning hours for southeast
Texas and gradually from west to east across southwest, central,
and south central Louisiana during the afternoon hours.

Some wrap around moisture will stay trapped underneath a frontal
inversion during the night with some light drizzle possible in the
evening with clouds hanging around through the night, gradually
decreasing by Monday afternoon.

Weak surface high will ridge into the forecast area from the east
by Tuesday with southerly winds developing. This combined with
decent solar heating, should make for a nice warm up.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

A weak cold front with a mix of modified Canadian and Pacific air
will move across the forecast area late Wednesday night and early
Thursday morning. Frontal convergence looks weak and best upper
level dynamics stay off to the northeast. Moisture values are not
too impressive, and therefore pops look low, 15% or less with the
frontal passage, so will not mention any shower activity with it.

Cooler conditions behind the front will drop temperatures to near
seasonal norms to the end of the week.

Over next weekend, high pressure will ridge across the northern
Gulf with low pressure well to the north, and this will help
provide southerly flow off the Gulf. This will increase moisture
values and provide warm temperatures.

Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

IFR and LIFR conditions will continue through much of the period,
however rain coverage will decrease this afternoon. Fog may
develop tonight decreasing vis once again and gradually mix out
after sunrise. Generally NE winds will back more north or
northwest this afternoon as low pressure moves across the coastal
waters.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

A surface low over the western Gulf east of the lower Texas coast
will move east-northeast along a coastal trough and across the
outer waters of the coastal waters today. The low will bring a
moderate east to northeast flow ahead of it along with moderate
seas. Some winds over the outer waters will reach 20 knots
sustained to go along with seas nearing 7 feet, that a small craft
advisory will be in effect into the afternoon.

As the low moves off to the east tonight, the pressure gradient
will relax with mainly light offshore flow and decreasing seas
into Monday.

Early next week, a weak surface high will ridge across the
northern Gulf and this will provide mainly light onshore flow and
low seas through mid week.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  48  41  63  42 /  90  10   0   0
LCH  52  44  64  45 /  90  10   0   0
LFT  53  46  67  44 /  90  30   0   0
BPT  53  43  67  45 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ470-
     472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...05