Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
473 FXUS64 KLCH 111133 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 633 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 90s today and through the early part of next week as oppressive upper level ridge develops over the region. - High pressure remains in control of the forecast from today through the middle part of next week. Expect daily hot and dry conditions with less than 5 percent chances of rain each day. - Lower than normal daytime humidity will keep heat indices capped in the upper 90s each day. Continue practicing heat safety for those outdoors working, at sporting practices, or otherwise. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Quite the lengthy persistence forecast is in store throughout the entire forecast period. Primarily surface to mid level high pressure ridge meanders over the region over the short term period. From today into Saturday, upper level ridge builds in from the southwest. This increase in heights aloft will only offer more oppression to ongoing high temperatures / heat. Highs in the low to mid 90s today will give way to highs in the mid to upper 90s Friday and again Saturday. However, due to the ambient dry airmass in place, daily diurnal mixing will crank down daytime moisture each day. The Heat Index / real-feel of temps outdoors will top out in the upper 90s each day. That being said, since sweat and moisture will wick away quickly, dehydration can happen quickly. Continue to use heat management techniques for those working outdoors. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 The dry, oppressive heat only continues into the longterm period. High pressure will remain well within control of the weather pattern, bringing about hot and dry conditions to the weekend and into the start of next work week. Temps will top out in the mid to upper 90s each day with daily heat indices in the mid to upper 90s as well. Upper trof looks to swing across the central Plains states on Sunday, shunting off upper level ridging for the day. This could limit upper subsidence enough to allow a few extra clouds to billow by during daytime hours. A few extra clouds may help limit temps very slightly, however in the grand scheme, it`ll still feel like opening a pre-heated oven when walking outdoors Sunday or otherwise. Upper pattern tries to liven up from the start of the work week. There is quite a bit of model disagreement from Monday and beyond, so it is too early to discern how much impact this may be to the longterm forecast. 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Patchy fog will limit VIS until after sunrise, around 15Z. For the rest of the TAF period we will have VFR conditions with mainly clear skies. Winds will be light and variable. && .MARINE... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Winds will primarily prevail from the east to east-northeast throughout the forecast period. Surface high pressure ridging into the northwest Gulf will keep winds at this pitch for the coming days. Winds and seas in the 20 to 60 nm waters will see a period of elevated conditions from this morning to midnight tonight between the gradient from surface high and remnant boundary. From Friday morning to at least early Sunday, this boundary washes out and hot and dry conditions with low seas can be expected. At the start of next work week, another gradient may pick up as upper wave moves across northern Gulf states and sfc high remains in place. This would result in elevated wind and sea conditions once again. Small Craft Advisory conditions are not forecast at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Hot and dry conditions with breezy, variable winds to be expected today thru the start of next work week. High pressure over the region strengthens from Friday through Sunday allowing high temps to drive into the mid to upper 90s each day. Surface mixing is expected each afternoon with daytime RH minimums in the 30 to 45 percent range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 94 69 96 69 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 92 72 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 93 70 94 70 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 92 72 94 71 / 10 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...14