526
FXUS64 KLCH 201111
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
611 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A combination of high daytime temperatures and humidity have
  warranted a Heat Advisory for interior portions of SETX and
  SWLA from 10AM until 7PM tonight.

- Heat will continue to build across the region through the middle
  of the week with highs in the mid to upper 90s.

- Rain chances increase toward the end of work week ahead.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Forecast remains on track for conditions to begin drying out today
as the stronger region of mesoscale forcing has now weakened with
remnant surface troughing having dissipated overnight into to the
lower Southern Plains. Currently, a dry upper level trough over the
NW Gulf is expected to migrate into southern TX while broad low
level to surface ridging starts to build a subsidence inversion over
the area. This pattern will promote weak onshore flow but won`t help
mix out higher dewpoints along the surface where antecedent rainfall
had previously saturated the grounds. Thus, with calm winds, mostly
clear skies, and relatively stable atmosphere, our main headline to
start the new week off will be hazardous heat. Combination of higher
dewpoints - in the upper 70`s - and daytime highs reaching into the
mid 90`s will warrant a heat advisory through 7PM tonight for
locations generally north of the I-10 corridor.

Going forward to the start of the work week, a weak center of
surface high pressure over the eastern Gulf waters will pump
moisture inland which will contribute to hazardous apparent
temperatures nearing or exceeding 108F across much of the interior
forecast area. Worth noting area along and south I-10 won`t feel
much cooler, however, these locations border just below criteria for
the time being and daily revisiting of these parameters will be
necessary as heat tends to accumulate through the nocturnal hours
under a relatively calm atmosphere. Subsidence and dry air will
limit isolated pop up shower activity to near 0 %, but will make
note a late afternoon Seabreeze could still kick up a brief shower
along the coast- most favorably towards the lower Atchafalaya.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

By Wednesday, the pattern does shows signs of change as the northern
Jet lifts further into Canada while a broad subtropical high aloft
builds further into the Ohio Valley. Locally, this results in
potentially seeing modest baroclincity take place along the SECONUS
and gradually retrograde eastward toward the lower Mississippi.
There`s quite a bit of spread between the tools of numerical
guidance, but the general picture is that a surface trough may
develop near Georgia and the Carolinas before being carried into the
Gulf by the clockwise motion of the aforementioned larger
subtropical high. This pattern allows for some element of surface
troughing to begin deepening back west along the northern Gulf Coast
toward SWLA and SETX. PoPs really become more appreciable by
Thursday for southern and eastern portions of LA, however, will
again caution the uncertainty in this pattern which may bring these
chances down. The coastal trough feature would slowly migrate west
allowing better chances for areawide precipitation to take place
toward next weekend. In the meanwhile, I do believe heat related
impacts are going the main concern for much of the upcoming work
week while models iron out changes to seeing precipitation toward
the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Scattered VFR ceilings and light SW/S winds will prevail
throughout the forecast period. No real concerns expected today as
high pressure overhead will largely keep convection in check.

17

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Isolated shower activity over the nearshore Gulf waters remains
likely through the early morning hours with gradual decrease to
dissipation. Shower and storm activity expected to be at a
minimum through the midweek while light to modest onshore flow
persists.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Minimum RH values will remain high, around 50 to 60% through
Wednesday. Due to high pressure overhead, winds will be light for
the next several days, less than 10 mph. Chances of precipitation
begin to increase across interior locations by Thursday into the
following weekend

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  95  72  96  73 /  10   0   0   0
LCH  92  77  93  77 /  20   0  10   0
LFT  92  76  93  76 /  20   0  20   0
BPT  92  76  93  76 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ027>033.

TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ180-201-259>262.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...17